Are There Any Safe Picks in the Draft?
by Gregory Cox
NFL Draft Analyst
4/14/09


Today I had a radio an interview with Sean Fox at ESPN in Louisiana. One of the questions he asked me was how in the world I could have dreamt of projecting no quarterbacks to be taken in the top 15 picks. My answer was that realistically both are going to be gone in the top 5 and my next revision will reflect that stark reality. I still believe there is logic behind both falling. If teams are smart they would wait it out. Throwing that kind of guaranteed money at the only position (other than center, punter and kicker for all the smart alecks out there) where just one guy plays at a time pretty much means you have to be 100% he will be your starter long term. It can set a franchise back if the wrong decision is made, and obviously there are no 100% guarantees at any position.

This got me to thinking about what positions are “safest”. I can give you my opinion regarding past drafts, but it would be self serving because I could slant the information. Instead, I will use a piece written by Mike Florio (Sporting News) looking back at the 2006 first round. He mostly goes binary with “bust” and “not a bust” labels. Two players earned “incomplete” and some earned a “for now” disclaimer which I will ignore to simplify things. Taking all of his assessments, which I am not going to debate much here, into account 37% of the picks are a “bust”. This is actually pretty favorable, and of course as time goes on grades change, opinions vary, etc. Using his labels let’s break it down by position.

QUARTERBACK

This has generally been considered a 50/50 proposition by the best of draft experts. In other words if you are drafting at #1 you are flipping a coin on your franchise being in the dumper for 3-4 years if you do not choose wisely. Think about that. What kinds of decisions would you leave to a coin flip? What to eat? Who to marry? The first one yes, the second one I would hope not. In Florio’s assessment 67% busted. The exception was the third player off the board at #11 Jay Cutler. It remains to be seen if he can continue his career successfully in Chicago. Are these goods odds? The most drastic example of this coin flip is in 1998 with one team coming up Peyton Manning and other Ryan Leaf.

RUNNING BACK

This was really a mixed bag. An “incomplete” was given to Laurence Maroney (Patriots) and I personally would go “bust” on him, but I would not be as harsh to his “bust” Reggie Bush (Saints) simply for not living up to unrealistic expectations. If he had been taken #20 would he be a bust? At any rate, Florio’s labels produce a 37% bust rate. This is pretty favorable and the general feeling is that running backs can easily be plugged in. If you’re getting good odds it makes sense.

WIDE RECEIVER / TIGHT END

There is not enough data here as only one receiver and two tight ends were taken. The receiver was Santonio Holmes (Steelers) who was last seen posing with a Super Bowl MVP trophy. The “bust” tight end is Vernon Davis (49ers) and the “not a bust” is Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars). No conclusions can really be drawn on 100% of one receiver panning out and 50% of two tight ends. The general consensus is that receivers take three years to adjust to the NFL. Usually that is enough to scare teams away from taking them early, as happened last year with none going in round 1. Tight ends are historically rarely taken in the first 32 picks and Davis might be the poster child of why they should not be high picks.

OFFENSIVE LINE

In fairness only three were taken – one each at guard, tackle and center ironically. All of them earned “not a bust” labels though. I’m not getting into assessing years and years of data here, but suffice it to say that offensive linemen can be a pretty safe bet. Just a snap judgment assessment of the large 2008 first round class of tackles would illustrate how a lot of these players succeed.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Three ends and three tackles were taken in the first round. Only one, a tackle, earned a “bust” label. The evidence is pretty clear with 83% of these players getting a positive label that this can one of the less risky positions to attack early. The first four, including #1 overall and ending in the Top 20 earned a passing mark.

LINEBACKER

An incomplete grade was given to Manny Lawson (49ers) which is fair although I would slant towards bust. I called this a tie for percentages and came up with just 25% earning a “bust” label. The 2009 draft has a lot of talent and if the odds are so much in the favor of success it stands to reason this is another good way to go.

CORNERBACK / SAFETY

Neither area performed well. The corners had a 75% “bust” rate out of 4 taken. At safety two of three were labeled busts for a 67% failure rate. All three were taken in the top half of the round and evidently general managers learned their lesson because the general consensus now is that the end of the first round or second round is where a safety should be taken. Worse yet regarding corners they were taken 15, 19, 24, and 31 which reflects landing on teams with better situations.


WHAT TO DO THEN?

This is a small sampling. However, I feel the evidence is fairly straightforward. Are you afraid of making the wrong choice? Then target offensive and defensive linemen because 89% panned out. Is your defense struggling? Go after the front 7 where 71% of players taken earned passing grades. Avoid the secondary with a 63% “bust” rate. The skill position data indicates sticking with a running back and a 63% success rate, and taking your chances at quarterback, tight end or wide receiver.

NEED VS. BPA

The acronym BPA is thrown around a lot. It means best player available regardless of position. Successful teams are more likely to take the BPA because they have fewer needs and those needs are not as glaring. Bad teams often reach to fill a need, and address a position (read: quarterback) when they should not simply because their situation is so dire.

QUARTERBACK DILEMMA

Let’s bring this discussion back to the quarterback position. The common measure of a successful, or let’s say decent quarterback is passing for 3,000 yards in a season. Let’s use that as a standard and look at the 18 players who achieved that total in 2008. The number 50% pops up immediately. That’s how many of them were taken in round 1 by their current team. It jumps to 56% when Chad Pennington, who the Jets drafted and later cut, is included. Two players were selected in round 2, Favre and Brees, but again both of them were drafted by other teams. Yet another was a third round pick, Houston’s Schaub, and he was taken by Atlanta.

Including traded players then, 72% of the “successful” (using the 3,000 yard season in 2008 as a metric) quarterbacks were taken in the first 3 rounds and it gets to 78% with Jacksonville’s Garrard (fourth round). Let me get this straight then. You can throw crazy first round money and hope to be within the roughly 50% who find a pot of gold (read: Matt Ryan most recently) or spend a little bit on scouts and join the 22% achieving success with quarterbacks who were not drafted at all, or taken in the seventh round (Matt Cassel). 

TAKE TWO?

Let me throw something else out there. Double up. Start with a guy in the middle rounds (third to fifth) and take someone late (sixth or seventh) or rookie free agent pool. I think I would rather throw two darts with a 22% chance of hitting the target rather than one shot with a 50% success rate. Here is the rub. If you fail in my “two dart” system what have you lost? Try again next year and the odds indicate out of those 4 players one will hit. If you succeed your biggest problem is locking up the player before they escape in free agency. In the other system, failure sticks you with an overpaid player you can’t use (read: Alex Smith) and keeps you from actively taking another shot too soon.

Someone is bound to point out that I have not included Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco because he fell short of 3,000 yards passing, so to satisfy that question in advance I will include the top 23 passers and offer these additional figures. Round 1: 52% Rounds 1-2: 61% Rounds 1-3: 70% Rounds 1-4: 74%. Round 6, 7 or not drafted: 26%. This includes everyone with 2,400 yards passing in 2008 and naturally someone is going to email me asking about Cincinnati star Carson Palmer. He was a first round pick. Gus Frerotte, who basically led Minnesota into the playoffs, is also not on the list with 2,156 yards passing. He was a sixth round pick. See where 50/50 comes in? Let me ask again – what decision would you leave to a coin flip?


Abromowitz's 2009 NFL Mock Draft - 7 rounds
Cox's 2009 NFL Mock Draft - 4 rounds
MockDraftDatabase.com (our mock draft database)