Everyone
is making bowl projections so I will jump in – sort of. It
would be foolish to deal in absolutes with so many games left to play.
Right now I will try to give the most likely scenarios for the BCS,
making three choices for each bowl.
BCS
Championship: Right now LSU vs. Oregon is the game a lot of
people
want to see and both are sitting in position for it. However, it would
be foolish to count out whoever wins the Big XII even if both the
Tigers and Ducks win out. Kansas would be the lone undefeated team if
they can beat Missouri and then Oklahoma in the title game. Should that
happen they will rise in the human polls and earn a bid. Missouri is in
a similarly strong position because knocking off undefeated Kansas and
then avenging their lone loss to the Sooners would earn them a lot of
points. Oklahoma can earn only one big victory and ironically seem to
have the worst odds at vaulting into position. We also can’t forget
about West Virginia whose lone loss might turn out to be a close one on
the road (21-13) to a South Florida team who finishes 9-3.
FIRST PICK: LSU vs. Oregon – Best teams
from the best conferences
SECOND PICK: Oregon vs. Oklahoma – Revenge or repeat?
THIRD PICK: LSU vs. West Virginia – Surprise, surprise
Rose
Bowl: For USC it seems like a
pretty good consolation prize to end
the season in Pasadena having lost to Stanford. They have the defense
to stifle Arizona State and will have revenge on their mind against
UCLA. Ohio State is no lock to beat rival Michigan this week, but can
recover a lot of national respect by winning the Big Ten and then the
Rose Bowl. No one wants to see a rematch of Oregon’s trashing of
Michigan, or for that matter last year’s meeting between USC and
Michigan.
FIRST PICK: Ohio State vs. USC – Almost was last year’s title game
SECOND PICK: Ohio State vs. Oregon – Dixon against a tough defense
THIRD PICK: Michigan vs. Arizona State – Not exactly a fan favorite
Fiesta
Bowl: It will be very interesting to see what happens with the
three Big XII teams. Everyone seems to think Oklahoma will win, but few
expect them to leap into the national title game. We could easily see a
pair of them meet again here interestingly enough. The tough part for
Missouri is that even beating Kansas then losing to Oklahoma won’t earn
them a third shot at the Sooners or even a BCS bid despite finishing at
11-2. Everyone has forgotten about Florida who is sitting at #12 in the
BCS standings and could easily finish in the top 8 because they
probably pass a Big XII loser and will definitely pass the ASU/USC
loser. This is about ratings and even with three losses most want to
see Florida over Kansas at 11-1.
FIRST PICK: Oklahoma vs. Kansas – Another Big XII showdown
SECOND PICK: Oklahoma vs. Florida – Who wouldn’t watch this?
THIRD PICK: Missouri vs. Florida – Interesting offensive battle
Sugar
Bowl: It would be an understatement to say the SEC has beaten
each other up this season. Currently 9 of 12 teams have 3+ losses in
conference play. If Tennessee continues their road woes at Kentucky
while Georgia loses in the title game then only LSU would stay off that
list, but of course they move on to the national championship in that
scenario assuming they handle Mississippi and Arkansas. I favor that
happening and a 10-3 Georgia team would be a nice fit. The WAC champion
is in excellent position to finish in the BCS top 12. Currently Hawaii
is #16 and undefeated while Boise State is not far behind at #18. A few
teams ahead of them will lose while the winner of their meeting should
earn some respect in the human polls. It isn’t out of the question to
see the WAC winner frozen out though, especially if Washington upsets
Hawaii.
FIRST PICK: Georgia vs. Boise State – Another Bronco surprise?
SECOND PICK: Tennessee vs. Kansas – Could be a fun game to watch
THIRD PICK: LSU vs. Hawaii – How would Brennan hold up against this
defense?
Orange
Bowl: This looks to be the ACC vs. Big East champs facing off.
In the ACC it seems strange not to consider Boston College as the
favorite, but they have tailed off and honestly I’m not sure they beat
Clemson this week on the road. If it happens I doubt they can win a
rematch with Virginia Tech. The Hokies are rolling right along, but
suddenly this week Virginia came up big. In the Big East there is
little doubt in my mind West Virginia will win, but they could be
swooped up by the title game. Kansas definitely is the team plugged in
should that happen. After this week’s showing I give Connecticut very
little hope at West Virginia to steal the Big East. If they do it could
lead to what would be my fourth choice, a Virginia-Connecticut rematch.
FIRST PICK: Clemson vs. West Virginia – Two teams playing very well
SECOND PICK: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia – Beamer Ball against
explosive offense
THIRD PICK: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas – Plenty of defense to go around
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