Now that the 2006 season is officially over (the Pro Bowl doesn’t really count), it’s time to start thinking about next year.  For most teams, this just involves considering what players are available through free agency and the draft.  Six teams this year had to start with a new coach.  Of these teams, Pittsburgh and Dallas have enjoyed recent success and they are searching for coaches because their coaches have retired.  They will essentially keep the players and coaches intact.  Other teams like the Raiders have been so consistently bad, they should just blow it all up and start from scratch.  I started to wonder how I would do this if I were a general manager say of an expansion team.

The first step would be to find your head coach.  Generally this means hiring an assistant, usually a successful offensive or defensive coordinator, a previous head coach, or a successful college coach.  The NFL landscape is littered with successful, even legendary college coaches who made the jump to the NFL, usually for a lot more money.  The most recent are Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Rich Brooks, Jimmy Johnson, Butch Davis, Dennis Erickson, Bobby Ross, Mike Riley, Barry Switzer, Tom Coughlin, and Steve Mariucci.  Others from way back include Tommy Prothro, Lou Holtz, Bud Wilkinson, Dick MacPherson, Darryl Rogers, and Frank Kush.  Most of these have failed rather miserably in the NFL, though Johnson and Switzer both won Super Bowls with Dallas; Switzer did it basically with Jimmy Johnson’s team.  Those of you who think Pete Carroll may be the savior for your team should look at his NFL record prior to going to USC.  He was considered a joke in New York while coaching the Jets before going to the Patriots where he did enjoy some success.  His overall NFL record is 33-31 which is respectable, but not worth 10 Million a year.  Every year it astounds me that any general manager even considers a college head coach, or in Oakland’s case, a college assistant, for an NFL head coaching job.  This year, it’s Bobby Petrino’s turn in Atlanta to break the string of failures.  I give him 3 years in Atlanta, 4 years tops.  Lane Kiffin will last no more than 2 years in Oakland.

Probably the best bet is to hire a previous NFL head coach, preferably Marty Schottenheimer, Jimmy Johnson, or Bill Parcells if they were available.  They all have proven track records of resuscitating moribund teams.  Cowher may be available this year for the right price.  He has only coached one team, but that team was successful through several cycles of player turnover.  Norv Turner always seems to be available, but has not been particularly successful at any of his head coaching stints.

The current trend is to go with a young coordinator.  Most of the hires last year were coordinators with the exceptions of Herm Edwards who was head coach of the Jets before moving to Kansas City, Rod Marinelli who was the defensive line coach in Tampa Bay, and Art Shell who was working in the NFL front office, but had previously coached the Raiders.  The strongest candidates for coach of the year this year, Sean Payton and Eric Mangini were successful coordinators the prior year.  Once you’ve decided to go with a coordinator, the question becomes who to pick.  Every year there are hot assistants who are snatched up, and usually fail, but certain coaching trees provide a higher probability of success.  In Today’s NFL, there are 4 main coaching trees, the Parcells, Walsh, Schottenheimer, and Dungy trees. Since all these coaches got there start somewhere, for example Dungy got his first coaching job with Chuck Noll who was an assistant under Don Shula, etc, etc, they can all be traced back to Pop Warner, so I consider a tree starting with the coach who was a relative unknown until he established himself.  The Walsh tree includes Sam Wyche, Mike Holmgren, Dennis Green, John Gruden, Andy Reid, Mike Shanahan, Steve Mariucci, Brian Billick, Mike Sherman, and Marty Morningweg.  Several defensive assistants such as George Seifert and Ray Rhodes have also come from this tree, but since Walsh was an offensive guru, they are not considered true Walsh protégés.  These are proponents of the West Coast offense and have won 5 Super Bowls among them, not including Walsh’s 3.  

The Parcells tree includes his most famous, and successful protégé, Bill Belichick who begat Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini.  Nick Saban and Ray Handley also belong in this tree.  Tom Coughlin was also influenced by Parcells.  Belichick has 3 championships to Parcell’s two.  Their trademark is a confusing 3-4 defensive scheme.

The Schottenheimer tree is one of the biggest but least successful.  His most successful protégé is Bill Cowher who could have his own tree having given us Dom Capers, Jim Haslett, Mike Mularkey, Marvin Lewis, Jack del Rio, Chan Gailey, Dick Lebeau, and Ken Whisenhunt.  Cam Cameron and Gunther Cunningham were also Schottenheimer assistants. Schottenheimer and Cowher are known mostly for their defenses, though Gailey, Whisenhunt, Mularkey, and Cameron were offensive coordinators.  Of these, only Cowher has a championship.

Tony Dungy was actually an assistant under Dennis Green who comes from the Bill Walsh tree, but learned defenses under Chuck Noll.  Noll used a 4-3, cover- 2 type scheme in fashioning Pittsburgh’s famed Steel Curtain.  Dungy took this to Tampa Bay and modified it to give us the Tampa-2.  His defensive assistants have recently spread throughout the NFL bringing the Tampa-2 with them, so Dungy gets his own tree.  Current head coaches from this tree include Lovie Smith, Herm Edwards, Rod Marinelli, and now, Mike Tomlin.  Dungy owns the only Super Bowl ring in this group.

Which tree you choose from will likely dictate what type of offense or defense your team will employ.  Looking purely at past successes, the Walsh tree and a West Coast type offense would be the safest choice.  Coaches from the Schottenheimer and Parcells trees favor the 3-4 defenses which recently have proven the most successful, though this year; there were two Tampa-2 defenses in the Super Bowl.


Next:  Deciding on your defensive and offensive schemes.