Part 1:  Picking a Coach
Part 2:  Picking a Scheme

Once you’ve decided on coach and system, you need to find assistant coaches and players.  Acquire the majority of your players through the draft and fill holes through free agency.  You’re going to also need a good cap guy to manage salaries.

The first thing you need to build is your offensive line.  Any quarterback can pick apart a secondary with time to throw, and any running back can look great with giant gaps to run through.  To me the secret to having a great offensive line is finding a great line coach.  The best in the NFL today are Russ Grimm (formerly in Pittsburgh, now in Arizona), Hudson Houk (Miami), Alex Gibbs (most recently in Atlanta), and Dante Scarnecchia (New England).  Do whatever it takes to build your line.  Spend in free agency and draft offensive linemen high in the draft.  It may take a few years to get the line to work as a unit, but once it does, any quarterback or running back will look better.  In addition, offensive lineman, except for franchise left tackles, are relatively cheap in comparison to top quarterbacks or running backs.  They also tend to have long careers.

Find a good special teams coach:  For example, Bobby April, now in Buffalo always seems to have top special teams wherever he goes.  Special teams are often an afterthought, but a guy like Devin Hester can change a game in an instant.  In the 2001 AFC championship game, multiple special team gaffs cost Pittsburgh a trip to the Super Bowl.  Special teams, specifically the foot of Adam Vinatieri, won all three Super Bowls for the Patriots.  While on the subject of kickers, spend the money in free agency to find a good one.  They are relatively cheap and can be one of the most valuable players on your team.  Consider having a kickoff specialist rather than just one place kicker.  Most coaches hate using up a roster spot on a guy who just kicks off, but with the preponderance of guys like Hester in today’s NFL, it makes sense to get as many touchbacks as possible.  A kick off specialist will probably be more valuable than a fourth running back.  Don’t hesitate to use a roster spot on a position player who is really only a special teamer.  Spend the money on a top punter.  A team can win 2-3 games a year, simply by playing a good field position game, ie, having a good returner to set up your offense and a good punter and a special team’s gunner to pin back the opponent’s offense.

Free Agency:
Use this sparingly, and only for positions you can’t fill in the draft.  The only caveat to this is at quarterback.  It would be too expensive to try to lure away a franchise quarterback, but there are many examples of quarterbacks who languished with one team, only to blossom with another.  Rich Gannon is the perfect example.   He was basically a journeyman before going to the Raiders and earning league MVP.  A guy like Gannon would be relatively inexpensive compared to a high first round quarterback.  In today’s NFL, quarterbacking is more about intelligence and experience rather than physical ability.  Veteran quarterbacks bring that and can tutor a young quarterback should you choose to draft one.  If you do choose to draft a young quarterback, have him carry a clipboard for at least one and preferably two season.  Brady, Palmer, Pennington, and Rivers hardly ever saw the field early in their careers, but excelled after watching and learning for a year.  Eli Manning, Kyle Boller, David Carr, and Joey Harrington never got this opportunity and their careers have languished.  Ben Roethlisberger is the exception to this rule, having won 15 games his first year and the Super Bowl his next, but he paid the price with a very poor third year.

Draft: 
Unlike the drafts for baseball and hockey, this one really matters.  A single player can reverse the fortunes of a perennial NFL loser in single year. Alternatively, a bad draft pick can handcuff a team for years.  The NFL draft is why there is talk of parity, and hope on “any given Sunday.”  The best teams build through the draft.  Industries have been built around the NFL draft making celebrities of Kiper, Mayock, and Abromowitz.  Like the stock market though, the draft is an inexact science.  Mere tangible measures of height, weight, and speed cannot foretell the success a player may have in the NFL.  For every Peyton Manning, there is a Ryan Leaf, and players like Tom Brady, Marques Colston, and Willie Parker slip through the cracks every year.  A good scouting department may be more valuable than a good coach.

“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”  If only every NFL general managers had heeded these ominous words by George Santayana, then players such as Kyle Boller would not have been drafted 16th overall.  History has shown that certain patterns hold true when drafting: 

The quarterback is the most important position on the team.  A great quarterback can lead a team to a championship despite any weaknesses that team may have while a poor quarterback can negate all the other strengths of a team.  What would the Patriots and Colts be without Brady and Manning?  What could the Bears have accomplished had they even an average quarterback?  For this reason, quarterbacks are the most coveted players in the draft.  A quarterback has been drafted number one overall more than any other position.  Unfortunately for many ex-general managers, it’s also one of the most difficult positions to evaluate.   The bust rate for first round quarterbacks is about 50% over the years, yet general managers continue to draft them highly for their potential upside.  In my opinion, gambling on a first round quarterback is worth the risk, but certain rules should be followed:

Never draft a Jeff Tedford quarterback.  What do Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington and David Carr have in common?  They were all high first round draft picks who were phenomenal busts in the NFL, and they were all coached by Tedford.  Aaron Rodgers is another who waiting in the wings to fail in Green Bay.  Tedford is currently head coach at Cal, but has also coached at Oregon and Fresno State.  His offenses are very quarterback friendly, so his QB’s have spectacular stats which attract the NFL.  Once out of their Tedford cocoon though, these quarterbacks regress.  This comes up every time a Tedford quarterback comes up in the draft, and every year, a general manager thinks he is smarter than all the other general managers who failed with a Tedford QB, only to find he is not.  Where then do you find a quarterback?  In the 80’s, the University of Miami was known as quarterback U. providing Jim Kelly and Vinnie Testaverde to the NFL.  Today, that’s probably USC, giving Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart.  Recently though, the safest place to find an NFL caliber quarterback is the Mid American Conference, MAC.  The SEC (Peyton and Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, Grossman, Cutler), Big East (Vick, McNabb, Bulger, Hasselbeck), Big 10 (Brady, Trent Green, Brees) are also well represented, but MAC quarterbacks seem to have the highest probability for success.   The MAC is a collection of smaller schools which has produced more current starting NFL quarterbacks than any other conference.  Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski and Daunte Culpepper are all quarterbacks who came out of the MAC.  Charlie Batch, a former starter in Detroit and now a top backup in Pittsburgh is also from the MAC.  Even though it has been a rather down year for MAC quarterbacks, four from that list are genuine stars, and three are former Pro Bowlers.   As of yet, there have been no big first round busts from this conference.  I’m not sure why these quarterbacks have done so well in the NFL while quarterbacks from larger schools and stronger conferences have not.  I’ve heard a theory that these quarterbacks are on predominantly passing teams, but so are WAC quarterbacks, and they have not done particularly well in the NFL.  All these MAC quarterbacks seem to be good game managers and are, in general, do not throw many interceptions.  It may simply be coincidental, but for now anyway, I’d play the odds and take a MAC quarterback if one is rated highly.  You may also want to consider drafting quarterbacks with roots in western Pennsylvania.  This area around Pittsburgh has produced Hall of Famers Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Johnny Unitas, George Blanda, and Joe Namath.  Current NFL quarterbacks who hail from this area include Marc Bulger, Gus Frerotte, Charlie Batch, Mike McMahon, and Bruce Gradkowski.  Jeff Hostetler also came out of this region.

Other draft trends:
Do not draft a receiver in the first round.  Every year, some receiver wows the scouts with a 4.2 forty, etc., etc., but first round receivers are even riskier than first round quarterbacks.  Since 2000, 39 receivers have been picked in the first round.  Of  these, 20 are starters, and only 4 have made the Pro Bowl.  5 are outright busts (drafted in the top 10 and no longer playing).   Compare this to first round tight ends in the same period.  There were 12 drafted, 4 have made the pro bowl, and all are starters with their original teams.    If you must draft a receiver, do not draft a Florida Gator receiver highly.  Chad Jackson, Reidel Anthony, Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, Ike Hilliard, Darrell Jackson, Jacquez Green, Travis Taylor, and Taylor Jacobs were all 1st or 2nd round draft picks.  None are stars and only Ike Hilliard and Darrell Jackson are having decent NFL careers.  Tom Brady, with three receivers from this list, may eventually reverse this trend, but for now, look elsewhere for a receiver.  Instead, find your receivers at Syracuse (Marvin Harrison, Qadry Ismail, Rob Moore, Rob Carpenter, Art Monk), Tennessee (Willie Gault, Stanley Morgan, Peerless Price, Tyrone Calico, Kelley Washington, Cedric Wilson),  Ohio State (Chris Carter, Santonio Holmes, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, David Boston), or recently the state of Oregon (Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Demetrius Williams).

Draft a Samoan.  Baseball has the Dominican Republic and the NFL has American Samoa.  Both are small Islands in which sport is a religion.  My fingers would cramp trying to type the names of successful Samoans in the NFL.  This trend started in the 70’s with players like Jack Thompson (the Throwin’ Samoan) through the 90’s with Junior Seau, and into today’s NFL with Troy Polamalu.  They all tend to be high character, high effort, very strong and tough players; the offensive and defensive linemen in particular.

Draft a running back from the University of Miami:  The last 4 running backs from Miami are Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, and Edgerrin James.  All have become outstanding NFL running backs.  Next in line is Tyrone Moss who is not rated particularly highly, but is probably worth a mid to late round pick.  Other safe picks are Miami wide receivers (Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, Sinorice Moss, Devin Hester, Rosco Parrish, Micheal Irvin) and tight ends (Bubba Franks, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Kevin Everett)

Do not draft a Penn State running back in top of the first round.  Larry Johnson is the latest Penn State running back to go in the first round and he has done well, but before him was:  Curtis Enis, Ki-Jana Carter, and Blair Thomas. All were drafted in the top 5 and all were huge busts.  Prior to Thomas, Curt Warner was drafted third overall and had a good career.   It’s safe to pick a Penn State running back later in the first round.  Curt Warner, DJ Dosier, and Franco Harris as well as Larry Johnson were selected later in the first round and all did well.

Take a highly rated safety in the first round.  Recent safeties picked highly are:  Roy Williams, Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Bob Sanders and Troy Polamalu.  These have all become cornerstones of their defenses.

Take a highly rated tight end in the first round:  Recent tight ends picked highly are:   Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller, Ben Watson, Dallas Clark, Bubba Franks, Alge Crumpler, Jerramy Stevens, Vernon Davis, and Todd Heap.  Tony Gonzalez was also a first rounder.   These are all stars.  There have been very few highly drafted tight end busts, so this may be one of the safest picks.

If there is a franchise type left tackle, take him early.  Players like Tony Boselli, Orlando Pace, and Jonathan Ogden are more difficult to find than franchise quarterbacks.  This used to be a pretty safe position to draft highly with players like Boselli, Pace, and Ogden being the best of all time, but recent busts, Robert Gallery, Mike Williams, and Kenyatta Walker have made the position more risky.  Also don’t invest a high first rounder on a tackle from the University of Texas as this school has produced recent high round busts in Mike Williams and Leonard Davis.

Finally, when in doubt, go with a player from Ohio State or Miami.

Next:  Auditioning the cheerleaders :)