By Bill Chuang, Head Columnist, 3/4/07

I read with dismay, the Patriot’s free agent signings the past 2 days.  It pains me to say this, but sometimes I wish I was a Patriots fan.  Why?—because they consistently make moves that just make sense.  Most teams, including my team, the Steelers, make free agent moves that make you say, “Huh?—Oh yeah, I guess that makes sense.”  The Patriots on the other hand make moves that make you say “why didn’t I think of that?”.  For example, they signed Junior Seau last year (a move that many including myself erroneously criticized) to fill a glaring need at middle linebacker.  Most thought he was too old, and since he had officially retired, he no longer had the will to put in the sacrifices to play another NFL season.  Though he has certainly lost a step over the years, Seau has years of experience and is a sure tackler.  In the Patriots 3-4 defense, the middle linebacker has to be solid, not spectacular which is exactly what Seau was before he was lost for the remainder of the season due to an arm injury.    They also hit pay dirt with aging veterans Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon, two key contributors to their last Super Bowl run.  Last season, Belichick let both his starting wide receivers go, Givens to the Titans in free agency and Branch to Seattle via trade for a first round pick in this year’s draft.  Both moves were unpopular in New England and many in the media criticized New England for depriving Brady of his weapons.  He also refused to overpay for an aging Willie McGinest. 

The only move the Patriots made last year that didn’t make sense to me was letting Adam Vinatieri go when they had plenty of cap space to keep him, though even that move doesn’t look too bad.   The guy they drafted to replace him is younger and has a stronger leg, but was not as accurate as Vinatieri last year.   I thought at the time, and have since been proven right, that it doesn’t matter who Brady throws to.  He has been able to make previous busts such as Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell into adequate receivers and will make Ben Watson a very rich man in next year’s free agent market.  Givens only had 8 catches in 5 games last year for the Titans, and Branch had a decent but not great year in Seattle.  McGinest had only 4 sacks on a bad Cleveland defense.  With Brady at the helm on offense, Belichick can concentrate his efforts and cap space on defense.  He knew he would have to pay Asante Samuel this year, so he saved the cap space to franchise Samuel and still had enough cash to sign the top prize in free agency this year, Adalius Thomas.  Thomas and this defense go together like peanut butter and chocolate (I’m a big Reeses Cup fan).   Belichick must have been salivating over this guy for years, and was probably stunned when Baltimore didn’t franchise him.  Thomas goes about 270 and runs a 4.5 forty.  He started his career as a special teams demon, but has found his niche at linebacker where he had 11 sacks last year.  He can also play with his hand down as a lineman, and even drops back as a safety.  In short, he has the kind of versatility that Belichick craves.  Peyton Manning will have to account for Thomas on every snap next year.  With Thomas and Colvin rushing from the outside and Seymour rushing inside, opposing quarterbacks and offensive linemen will be seeing Patriots in their sleep.  This also allows them to move Vrabel inside where he is more effective and fills the hole at middle linebacker vacated by Seau.  This move single handedly gives the Patriots one of the best front sevens in the league, rivaling those in Chicago and San Diego.  With Samuel, one of the top 5 corners in the league, and wily, hard hitting Harrison at safety, the Patriots no longer have any holes on defense.

On offense, they just signed Wes Welker, but the Dolphins will have a chance to match their offer.  Though not a bonafide star like Thomas, Welker is a solid receiver and an excellent kickoff and punt returner.  He should immediately jump ahead of both Gaffney and Caldwell and replace Maroney, who is now the starting running back, on kickoffs.  The Patriots also signed Kyle Brady to replace Daniel Graham.  Brady is 37 years old, but like Graham, is an excellent blocker.  He is not as good a receiver as Graham, but the Patriots primarily used Graham to block anyway.

The Patriots cut Cory Dillon and replaced him with Sammy Morris.  With the rise of Maroney, Dillon would have been relegated to backup status.  Personally, I would have kept Dillon.   He is one of the best goal line backs in the league.   I can’t recall the Patriots every being stopped inside the 5 with Dillon in the backfield.  He could have been used as a goal line back like the Steelers used Jerome Bettis toward the end of his career.  The difference is that Bettis accepted, even welcomed, this role while Dillon still believes he is a starter and demanded to be cut.  Morris is a decent back, but in Miami, he was always behind stars, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown

As if the Patriots aren’t good enough, the rest of the league seems intent on helping them out.  First Buffalo traded their first round pick for a washed up Drew Bledsoe.  This pick eventually became Vince Wilfork, who anchors the defensive line.  Then Cincinnati traded Corey Dillon for a second round pick.  Dillon gained over 1600 yards and would have had the rushing title in 2004 had he not missed a game.  Last year, Seattle traded their first round pick this year for Deion Branch, so the team that came within one game of the Super Bowl last year and added the top free agent this year, now has two first round picks to play with.  They may be able to put together a package to trade up and get Calvin Johnson—I think I’m going to lose my lunch.

New England has to be the favorite for the Super Bowl next year.  The only hope for the rest of the league is a season ending injury to one of their key players.  Most Steelers fans like me think that Belichick made a deal with the devil to have the success he’s had during this run.  The devil has collected every year with season ending injuries to Roosevelt Colvin (2003), Ty Law (2004), Rodney Harrison (2005), and Matt Light (2005) as well as a freak stroke to Tedy Bruschi (2004).  This may not even be enough because as long as Tom Brady is standing, the Patriots have a chance.  You, Patriot fans better find some wood to knock on.

As smart as these moves are, other teams made free agent moves that make less sense or are just plain dumb:

Jacksonville signed Dennis Northcutt to a contract worth an average of 3.4 million a season.  They already have underachieving receivers Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, so why add another underachieving high round pick, especially at that price.  Northcutt had only 22 catches for 228 yards last year for the Browns.  He will probably be used as a return specialist, but that is a lot to pay for an average returner.

The Redskins’ big signing this year is London Fletcher, 5 years for 25 million with 10.5 million guaranteed.  Fletcher is a solid run stuffing middle linebacker, but not that good.  The Skins could have had an equivalent linebacker, such as Edgerton Hartwell who was just let go from Atlanta, for a lot less.  They also resigned Fred Smoot who I believe is still a good corner, just with some off the field issues.

Next to the Patriots, the biggest player in free agency this year is the 49ers.  They had the most cap space at the start of free agency, but blew most of it on Nate Clements.  Clemens is an outstanding shut down corner, maybe as good a Champ Bailey, but not worth 80 million over 8 years.  He becomes the highest paid defensive player in league history.  They also paid 10 million in guaranteed money to Michael Lewis, former a starting safety in Philadelphia, but who was benched last season.  Since they cut Antonio Bryant, they needed to sign another wide receiver, so they over paid for Ashley Lelie at 4.3 million over 2 years.  These are good players, but the Niners are not a player or two from the Super Bowl.  They should have used their cap space on top offensive lineman, such as Eric Steinbach or Chris Dielman to protect their up and coming quarterback, Alex Smith, and to open running lanes for Frank Gore.  Then, when they are really a player or two away, they could have used that cap space.  The mega signings of Clements and Lewis will keep them from being big time players in free agency for years to come.

Of the available free agents still left, Joey Porter is probably the best still out there.  I can see him landing in Cleveland, Miami, Dallas, or NY Jets.