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Mocking the Mock Drafts
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by Bill Chuang, Head Columnist, 4/26/07
As a kid growing up in the 70’s, I was a big fan of the show “Happy Days”  There was an episode where Richie and Ralph tried to pick up some girls by pretending they were Tunisian camel jockies.  Since they didn’t actually know any Tunisian words, Ralph would just keep on saying Mock-Mock to mean everything including nookie.  It’s only today, 30 years later that I realize the irony of those words.  Mock means pretend, and that’s exactly what writers of mocks are doing.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it should be taken exactly for what it is, a way to find out about good college players, and an analysis of NFL team needs.

In 1999, Alan Greenspan, our charman of the Federal Reserve at that time described the run on internet stocks as “irrational exuberance”.  I was one of those who got caught up in this wave and paid dearly for it when the market crashed in 2000.  I was reminded of this phrase this morning when listening to “The Opening Drive” on Sirius NFL radio.   This is a call in show and all the talk centered on the draft.  People would call in and ask who their team should draft or where a certain player should go.  I was struck by the passion with which some of these people wanted a certain player for their team.  Then I recalled my own experiences.  I remember back in 2004, how disappointed I was when the Giants drafted Philip Rivers (he was immediately traded to the Chargers for Eli Manning) and the Steelers had to “settle” for Ben Roethlisberger.  How’d that work out?  Rivers made it to the Pro Bowl last year, but Roethlisberger has the Super Bowl ring.  My point is that while it may be fun to fantasize about what a certain player can do for your team, it is all truly speculation.  We are all going on what the Kipers of the world think about each player.  Since these players dominate any NFL conversation at this time of the year, you’d almost think the established NFL players didn’t exist (except for the ones who make the news for committing crimes).  We have to take a step back though and realize that these are just college players.  None of them have made an NFL roster yet, and most, no matter what Kiper says about them, will not even make your team.

Before I starting writing for this website and became an “expert,” I was rabid for any news about the draft.  It’s always fun to fantasize how one player might be the missing piece to finally lead your team to the Super Bowl.  I googled NFL mock drafts at least once or twice a week.  In fact that’s how I discovered this website in the first place.  This is absolutely the best site for the draft.  Believe me, I know them all.  The big boys, ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Fox Sports, and CNNSI really don’t have anything more intelligent to say than we do.  When I sat down to write my own mock draft the other day, I realized that there might be someone like me out there who might google my mock, and think I actually know what I’m talking about.  Now I follow the NFL religiously, watch my share of college football, listen to Siruis NFL radio, watch the NFL network, and read all the other mocks, so I probably know more than the average fan, but I certainly have not seen every player projected to be taken in the first round.  I doubt that most of the analysts at ESPN have either.  They get most of their information about these players from other sources and project this information through their mocks, just like I do.  After having this Jerry Maguire type epiphany, reading a lot of these mock drafts has lost its pizzazz.  It’s like sneaking into the dressing room of a super model and finding out she blows her nose and wipes her butt like the rest of us.  Don’t get me wrong, it’s still fun to fantasize, but you realize that these are just college kids, and the chance of them being the final piece to your team’s puzzle is pretty slim.

For example, look back at the past few drafts and try to recall some of the hot names that everyone wanted back then.  Remember April 2002?  Janet Jackson’s boob was still burned in our brains,  Britney Spears was not yet a punchline, Jack Bauer was not yet superman, and every football fan outside of Boston was still pissed about the Tuck rule.  The top QB’s that year were David Carr and Joey Harrington.  Both of these guys were as hot back then as Russell and Quinn are now, but both are now basically journeymen backups rather than the franchise QB’s they were drafted to be.  Mike Williams was a massive franchise left tackle out of Texas like Joe Thomas this year.  He was drafted fourth overall and was cut this year by the team that drafted him, Buffalo.  Roy Williams was supposed to be the best safety in a generation, that year’s LaRon Landry.  While Williams is a solid safety, he is better known for his horse collar tackles than his play.  Gaines Adams is this year’s Julius Peppers.  Peppers is the one player taken in the top ten of that draft who has become a star.  There was no Adrian Peterson in that 2002 draft, but in 2005, Ronnie Brown generated just as much excitement as Peterson.  Brown has become a solid back in Miami, but has not reached the superstar status expected of him.  

I find the buzz about Calvin Johnson the most interesting.  With his mix of hands, speed, and size, I’ve heard him described as “once in a lifetime”, or “the best wide out prospect in the past 20 years”, or “Randy Moss without the attitude”.  I gotta admit, I’ve only seen the guy play on highlight reels, and he looks great on those, but so does every other wideout on their highlight reels.  This is where guys like Mel Kiper come in, but Kiper is also the guy who rated the wideout Mike Williams as the top talent in the 2005 draft.   Williams is now a bust in Detroit, so you need to take Kiper’s ratings with a grain of salt.  It’s one of the few subjects that will actually shut Mel up.   It seems like every year, there’s another once in a lifetime receiver like Calvin Johnson, but the only one in recent memory who has come anywhere close to his billing is Larry Fitzgerald.  

Don’t get me wrong, I think the draft is absolutely the way to build a team, but let’s not canonize these guys yet.  I live in Minnesota now, and I remember the excitement in this town when the Vikings picked up Troy Williamson with the 7th pick in 2004, Kenechi Udezi in 2005, and then Erasmus James last year.  Williamson was supposed to be the replacement for Randy Moss.  Udezi and James were the fast ends who would terrorize the quarterback.  Well, Williamson is on the verge of being cut, and the Vikings are still looking for a pass rusher.

I admire the guys who do the mocks.  It’s hard enough to do one round, let alone 2, 3, or even 7 rounds.  It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement.  Before Saturday though, we all need to take a deep breath and try to keep it all in perspective.  Probably ¾ of the guys drafted this weekend will never play in an NFL game. You have to remember they are competing for roster spots against the 2006, 2005, 2004,… draft picks, and those guys already have a couple years experience under their belts.  Probably, only about 5 of the 32 players taken in the first round will ever make a pro bowl, and at least one player taken in the top 10 will be a journeyman or outright bust.  In the immortal words of Bill Parcells “Put away that anointing oil.”