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Playoff Scenerios
By Bill Chuang 11/24/06

I love this time of year.  If your team is still in the playoff hunt, and most teams still are, watching the scoreboard is almost as much fun as watching your team.  It makes strange bedfellows or rival fans.  For example the Cincinnati fans will be rooting hard for Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore this Sunday.  In the AFC, your team will probably need at least 10 wins to make the playoffs, though even that does not guarantee a position.  That basically, though not mathematically, eliminates any team with 7 losses.  In the weaker NFC, your team may be able to sneak in with a 9-7 record.  That said, here are the teams you should be rooting for this Sunday, besides your team of course.

AFC

Indianapolis:  At 9-1 with a game lead over Baltimore and San Diego as well as wins over New England and Denver.  They basically have the division wrapped up and are playing for home field advantage.  They play a very debilitated Eagles team this week and don’t really need any help, but rooting for losses by Baltimore and San Diego would give a bit more cushion, though if they clinch too soon, they may get soft like last year.

Baltimore:  8-2 with a commanding 3 game lead in the AFC north over Cincinnati and 4 games over Pittsburgh.  They beat San Diego, but lost  to Denver.  They could potentially catch the Colts for home field especially since they have the win against the other 8-2 team, San Diego.  A win against Pittsburgh this week would virtually eliminate their hated rivals.  Cincinnati, though 3 games back could catch them, so they need to root against the Bengals, and anyone else in the AFC playoff hunt, especially the Colts.  The only AFC playoff contender who beat them is the Broncos who are now 2 games behind them.

San Diego:  8-2 with a win against the Broncos, but losses to Baltimore and the Chiefs.  Those losses could hurt as the Ravens could have the same record, but would win the first tie breaker which is head to head.  The Chiefs are 2 games back, and they play again in San Diego, so they shouldn’t worry too much about them.  They can also be thinking about home field throughout the playoffs, so would like to see losses by the Colts, Ravens, Patriots, and Broncos.

New England:  7-3 with losses to Denver, Indianapolis, and the Jets, all playoff contenders.  The only playoff contender they’ve beaten is Cincinnati.  They probably have this division wrapped up, although it’s possible the Jets could catch them.  They are really playing for playoff positioning.  Since they lost to the Colts, they are essentially 3 games back and are unlikely to catch them, but could still get the second seed, so they should root against the Ravens and Chargers.  A Jacksonville loss might also be helpful.

Kansas City has moved past Denver for the moment, but they still have to play in Denver.  They could catch San Diego, but are more likely playing for a wildcard.  The race for the AFC wildcard is now less clear with the last 2 Denver losses, so they should be rooting against any AFC team with a 4-6 record or worse, including the Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Steelers, and Jaguars.  The Bills play Jacksonville, and since the Jaguars have a better record, Chief fans should root for the Bills.

Denver is in the same position as Kansas City, so should be looking for the same losses.

Jacksonville:  6-5 with a loss to Indianapolis and wins against Pittsburgh and the Jets.  They are not going to catch the Colts, so are playing for a wildcard spot.  Basically they want all the wildcard contenders listed above to lose.

Cincinnati:  5-5 with losses to New England, Baltimore, and San Diego and wins against potential playoff competitors Kansas City and Pittsburgh.  They have a very difficult finishing schedule with games against Baltimore, Indianapolis, Denver, and Pittsburgh.  They are 3 games back of the Ravens, but I’m still not sold on the Ravens, so I think they can be caught.  Bengals fans should cheer loudly this weekend for Pittsburgh, and also root against all other wild card teams as well as the Bills over Jacksonville.

NY Jets:  5-5 with wins over New England, Buffalo, and Miami and losses to New England, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville.  It’s possible, but unlikely that they could catch New England.  Their remaining schedule is pretty easy, but so is New England’s.  They are probably playing for a wildcard spot, so they need all the wildcard contenders to lose and Buffalo over Jacksonville.

Pittsburgh:  At 4-6, it’s hard to believe they’re even mentioned here.  They probably need to run the table to even have a shot.  If they win the rest of their games, they will have beaten the Ravens twice and Cincinnati, so they might actually have a shot at the division.  This is a possibility considering Cincinnati’s tough finishing schedule, and besides the two games against Pittsburgh, Baltimore has tough games in Cincinnati and Kansas City.  Pittsburgh fans need to root against everyone in the AFC with a better record and Buffalo over Jacksonville.

Miami and Buffalo also each have 6 losses and would need to win the rest of their games to make the playoffs.  Each have lost to New England, Buffalo twice, so I don’t think either has a shot at the division title.  They can only hope for wildcard spots and, like Pittsburgh, need everyone  in front of them to lose.

NFC

Chicago:  At 9-1, I don’t think anyone in the NFC will catch them.  They have had and will continue to have a very easy schedule, though they do have a tough game this week against New England.  They just need to win the games they are supposed to win, and they should end up with home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Cowboys:  They are probably the second best team in the NFC right now.  Tony Romo has given them new life, but it would be interesting to see how he does against a top defense.  I don’t think they can catch the Bears, so are looking to win the division and wrap up the number 2 spot in the conference, but their divisional record is not very good, so they could still end up a wildcard.   They should root against the Giants as well as any potential wildcard teams including Minnesota, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Seattle.

NY Giants:  6-4 with wins against Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Dallas, but losses against Seattle and Chicago.  They are currently tied with Dallas atop the NFC East, and own the head to head and divisional tie breakers, but have looked terrible the last two games against Chicago and Jacksonville.  Maybe things will improve once they get some of their injured defensive stars back, but that will not improve the offense where Amani Toomer and Luke Petitgout are out for the rest of the season.  Eli Manning has looked lost without these players.  Though they still lead the division, they probably will lose the lead to Dallas and will fight for a wildcard spot.  As above they should root against all those teams in contention for a wildcard.

Carolina:  6-4 with a wins against New Orleans and St. Louis, but losses to Dallas and Atlanta.  Due to the win against New Orleans, they are currently in first place in their division, but they play New Orleans at the end of the season.  They need New Orleans, and all the potential wildcard teams listed above to lose.

New Orleans:  6-4 with a win against Atlanta, but a loss to Carolina.  They are currently in second place in the division with identical 3-1 divisional records.  Their big game will come against Carolina at the end of the season, but they should hope for Carolina, and all the potential wildcard teams listed above to lose.

Seattle:  6-4 with wins against St. Louis twice, and the NY Giants, but lost to Chicago, Minnesota, and San Francisco.  The NFC west is the worst division in football, so Seattle will probably take it by default, but San Francisco is only one game back, so they need to root against the 49ers as well as every other potential wildcard.

Philadelphia, Atlanta, Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis and San Francisco are all fighting for wildcard spots, though San Francisco and Atlanta might possibly win their divisions.  St. Louis and San Francisco play each other this weekend.  Unless you’re a 49er fan, you should root for the Rams, otherwise root against everyone else on that list.