A few weeks have gone by since my last look at the playoff picture and the outlook has changed for some teams.   In the AFC, the divisions are pretty well wrapped up by San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, and New England, but the questions of wildcards and seeding still remain.  It’s possible but unlikely for any of the current division leaders to lose these leads, so they’re fighting for playoff positioning while everyone else is fighting for the wildcards.

San Diego:  Currently the top seed with a 10-2 record, 8-2 in the conference, but with a loss to Baltimore.  They have remaining games against Denver, Kansas City, Seattle, and Arizona.  The only away game is at Seattle.  I see them going no worse than 3-1.  As long as that one loss is not against Denver or KC, they should keep the top seed in the AFC.

Indianapolis:  Currently at 10-2, 7-1 in the conference with a win against New England.  They own the second seed due to an inferior interconference record with games remaining against Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Houston, and Miami.  With 2 very winnable games against Houston and Miami and tough games against Jacksonville and Cincinnati, I see them going 13-3, and keeping the second seed.  The Colts have a huge advantage playing at home, so they desperately want the top seed, and will be hoping San Diego trips up against Denver or Kansas City. 

Baltimore:  9-3, 6-2 in the conference, and a win against San Diego.  With a better conference record than New England, they are the currently the third seed.  They have easily winnable games at home against Cleveland and Buffalo, but play tough road games against Kansas City, and an embarrassed Pittsburgh team.  I see them losing both away games and the third seed.  They do have a win against San Diego, so if the Chargers should falter, the Ravens could climb past them.

New England:  Currently 9-3, 5-3 in the conference, and a loss to Indianapolis.  With relatively easy games remaining against Miami, Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, they should run the table and go 13-3.  By running the table, they will have gained 4 more AFC victories which will give them a conference record of 9-3, and if San Diego loses one against either KC or Denver, they will also be 13-3 and 9-3 in the conference.  This could set up an interesting tie breaker scenario should Indianapolis also go 13-3. Since Indianapolis beat New England head to head, they would then get the top seed.  San Diego and New England with identical overall and conference records would then go to the third tiebreaker which is record against common opponents.  The only common opponents they will have had are Denver and Tennessee.  San Diego beat Tennessee and I assume New England will also, so it comes down to Denver.  Since New England already lost to Denver and San Diego already beat them once,  even if the Chargers lose to them this week, but win the rest of their games, they would get the second seed.

The AFC wildcard contenders are:  Jets, Bengals, Chiefs, Jaguars, Broncos.  All are 7-5.  There are no 6-6 teams and the 5-7 teams, though not mathematically eliminated, are unlikely to make the playoffs.  None of these teams are going to catch their respective division leaders, so are fighting each other for the 2 wildcard spots.

Jets:  They lost to Jacksonville, but have the easiest remaining schedule against Buffalo, Minnesota, Miami, and Oakland.  The Jets should finish no worse than 10-6.  If Jacksonville ties the Jets, they will move past them because they beat them head to head, so Jets fans should be routing against Jacksonville this weekend, as well as any of the other wildcard contenders, but mostly Jacksonville.

Bengals:  They beat KC, so in a tie, would move past them.  They have a very winnable game against Oakland, but finish with tough games against Indianapolis, Denver, and Pittsburgh.  Even though they are playing well, they will probably lose 2 of those games and go 9-7.  Their game in Denver could decide the fate of either team.   They will be in the unusual position this week of rooting for Baltimore against KC, as well as for San Diego against Denver, and Indianapolis against Jacksonville.

Chiefs:  They lost to Cincinnati, split with Denver, and end the season against Jacksonville.  They’ll also play Baltimore, San Diego, and Oakland.  I see the losing at least 2 of those games and with the poor record against other potential wildcard teams, would miss the playoffs.

Broncos:  If Denver had a better overall record, they could be vying for the top seed in the division because they beat both New England and Baltimore, but are instead fighting for a wildcard spot.  The only wildcard contender they’ve played is the Chiefs with whom they’ve split.  They have tough games against San Diego and Cincinnati and winnable games against Arizona and San Francisco.  I see them losing both of the tough games and maybe even one of the other games with their rookie quarterback, Cutler, starting in place of Jake Plummer.  I think they miss the playoffs this year.

Jacksonville:  They beat the Jets, so would pass them if they end up with the same record.  With tough remaining games against Indianapolis, New England, KC, and an improving Tennessee squad, I see them going 1-3 and missing the playoffs.

In the NFC, the divisions have also pretty well been wrapped up by Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans, and Seattle.  The wildcard picture is pretty cloudy with 4 teams at 6-6, the Giants, Eagle, Falcons, and Panthers, and teams at 5-7, the Vikings, 49ers and Rams.

Chicago at 10-2, 8-0 in the conference, pretty much has the top seed sewn up.  They have a ridiculously easy remaining schedule against St. Louis, Detroit, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay.  They should be using these games to tune up for the playoffs, and maybe get the backup quarterback, Brian Griese, some snaps, because Grossman has looked really bad.

New Orleans, 8-4, 7-1 in the conference.  They own the second seed due to their interconference schedule, but they’re hurt and face a hot Dallas team this week.  They have upcoming games against Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, and Carolina.  I see them going 2-2 in those games and getting the fourth seed.

Dallas, 8-4, 5-3 in the conference, is probably playing better than anyone else in the NFC riding a 4 game winning streak with their new quarterback, Tony Romo.  Amidst all the excitement in Dallas, has anyone noticed who they beat in this winning streak?-- Arizona, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, and Indianapolis.  The win against the Colts can certainly be considered a quality win, but this game was close and may have gone the other way if Dungy had challenged a pick six.  The Colts were due for a loss anyway and someone had to beat them.  I can’t get excited about the rest of their schedule with games against and injured Saints team, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit.  The Cowboys will probably get the second seed in the NFC, but without a quality win against tough competition, it’s hard to judge how good they really are.

Seattle: 8-4, 6-3 in the conference.  They lost to Chicago which should have no bearing because they won’t catch the bears anyway.  They have gimme games against Arizona, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay, but play a tough one against San Diego.  I see them going 3-1 in those games and leap frogging New Orleans for the third seed. 

Wildcards:
The Giants, Eagles, Falcons and Panthers are 6-6.  The Vikings, 49ers and Rams are 5-7.

Giants:  5-3 in the conference.  They beat Atlanta and play Philadelphia, Carolina, New Orleans and Washington to finish the season.  They’ve lost 4 straight and have looked bad doing so, though they did play well against Dallas last week.  The big games against Philadelphia and Carolina will probably decide who gets in.  They’ll probably have to win 3 of their remaining games to make the playoffs, and I can’t see them doing that.

Eagles:  5-3 in the conference.  They’ve already lost once to the Giants but get them again in 2 weeks.  They beat Carolina last week.  That win could be huge if they end up tied.  They finish with Washington, NY Giants, Dallas, and Atlanta.  The games against Atlanta and Giants could also decide who gets in.  They’ll probably need to win 3 of those games, but without McNabb, I don’t see them doing that.

Falcons:  4-4 in the conference.  They lost to the Giants, but beat Carolina once already.  They finish with Tampa Bay, Dallas, Carolina, and Philadelphia.  Once again the games against Carolina and Philadelphia could decide who gets in.

Panthers:  4-5 in the conference.  They’ve lost to Atlanta, Minnesota, and Philadelphia and haven’t beaten anyone in the wildcard race, plus they’ve got a poor interconference record so if they’re going to get in, they will need a better overall record than anyone else.  They have a tough finishing schedule with the Giants, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New Orleans.  The Giants and Atlanta are also wildcard contenders so they’ll probably need to win those in order to have a shot.
All the 5-7 teams need to win out and hope for a lot of help.

Vikings:  5-4 in the conference.  Remaining games against Detroit, Jets, Green Bay, and St. Louis.  Beat Carolina.

Rams:  4-5 in the conference.  Remaining games against Chicago, Oakland, Washington, and Minnesota.  They split with San Francisco and lost to Carolina.