There’s an old Chinese curse that goes:”May you always live in interesting times.”  I suppose this means that it’s better to be bored than to be invaded by Mongol Hordes.  These days, with a noticeable dearth of Mongol Hordes, “Yo Mamma!” might be more appropriate.  This occurred to me as I pondered this very interesting NFL season.  A season which has definitely been a curse to my Steelers, but a blessing to all NFL fans.  It’s the 16th week of the season, and fans in San Diego, Baltimore, Indianapolis, New England, Cincinnati, NY, Denver, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Buffalo, and Kansas City, fully ¾ of the AFC, are more immersed than ever.  The first 4 teams have basically clinched their divisions (the Jets could still mathematically win the east), and the rest are fighting for wildcards.  Not only do their fans get to root for their own team, but now root just as strongly for other teams.  As a Steeler fan, every year around this time, I start thinking about tiebreakers, though it’s usually for playoff seeding rather than simply getting in.  Usually it doesn’t get past the head to head or conference record tiebreakers, but with so many teams involved, I have had to look up the tiebreaker rules.  Here they are from NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers.   Basically the wildcard tiebreakers go:  head to head, interconference record, record against common opponents (minimum of four), strength of victory, strength of schedule.  If two wild card teams are from the same division, that is decided first using divisional rather than interconference record.  The winner of that, then competes against the other teams. 

As stated, the divisions in the AFC are pretty well wrapped up, so the fight is for the wildcards.  The four 8-6 teams, and four 7-7 teams all probably need to win out to get in.  Let’s take a closer look at each team.

Cincinnati:  The Bengals’ loss to the Colts threw the doors to the playoffs wide open.  They are 8-6 and battle another 8-6 team, the Broncos this week in Denver.  If they win, they will be 9-7 with a win over Denver.  This would give them a 7-4 interconference record.  Of the 7-7 teams, they’ve only played and beaten Pittsburgh, so if Cincinnati beats Denver, none of the 7-7 teams could catch them.  Denver would also be behind them due to their head to head record (again assuming the Bengals win).  If the Bengals lose, they will be 8-7 and will face a much improved Pittsburgh team in the last game of the season.  Depending on what Jacksonville and the Jets do, Pittsburgh may also be fighting for a wildcard in that last game.  Even if they’re not, the Steelers would like nothing more than to knock the Bengals out of the playoffs.  The other 8-6 teams, Jets and Jaguars, have inferior interconference records so in the event they also win out, Cincinnati would get the nod.

Bottom Line:  win and root against Jacksonville, Jets, all the 7-7 teams

Denver:  8-6 with games against the Bengals in Denver, and at San Francisco to finish.  If they beat the Bengals, they will be 9-7, 8-4 in the conference.  Like the Bengals, this would eliminate all the 7-7 teams.  They also have a better interconference record than the Jaguars and Jets, so if they all win out, the Broncos are in.  If they lose, they would be 8-7, 7-5 in the conference, but would still own the interconference edge against all 7-7 teams and a head to head tiebreaker against Pittsburgh.  Basically what this means is that even if they lose to Cincinnati, they still would have a fairly winnable game against the 49ers, and if they win that one, the 7-7 teams could not pass them even if all the 7-7 teams win out.  Jacksonville and the Jets could still pass the Broncos though if each of those teams wins out.

Bottom Line:  win and root against Jacksonville, Jets, all the 7-7 teams

Jets:  8-6 with games in Miami, and Oakland at home.  If they beat Miami, they then have a very winnable game against Oakland and would go 10-6.  This would eliminate all the 7-7 teams and probably the Denver/Cincinnati loser.  They have a loss to Jacksonville though so would lose the head to head tiebreaker in the event Jacksonville also wins out.  Both Denver and Cincinnati have better interconference records than the Jets, and since they have not played head to head, the jets would lose tiebreakers to either of these teams if they all win out.  If they lose, they would be 8-7, 5-6 in the conference and likely 9-7, 6-6 in the conference assuming they beat Oakland.  If Pittsburgh also wins out, they will be 9-7, 6-6 in the conference, so the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents at least 4.  Their common opponents are Miami, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Oakland so this tiebreaker could be used.  Pittsburgh’s record is 2-2 against these opponents, and if the Jets lose to Miami and beat Oakland, their record will be 2-5 against these opponents so Pittsburgh would win that tiebreaker.  Baltimore and Tennesee cannot win out because they play each other, but if Tennesee wins out, they will also be 9-7, 6-6 in the conference, but since they lost to the Jets, they cannot overtake them.  If Buffalo wins out, they would be 9-7, 6-6 in the conference.  They split with the Jets and both would have 3-3 interconference records, so again it would come down to common opponents.  Since they would have the exact same record against common opponents, it would then go to strength of victory.  Since I don’t feel like calculating that, let’s just say that I don’t think this scenario would happen because Buffalo finishes with 2 of the hottest teams in Tennessee and Baltimore.

Bottom line:  win and root for Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, and Oakland.  Since Denver finishes with an easy game against the 49ers and the Bengals finish with a tough one against Pittsburgh, Jet fans should root for the Bengals with the hope that both teams will lose.

Jaguars:  8-6 with tough finishing games against New England and the Chiefs in K.C.  If they beat the Patriots, they would be 9-7, 5-5 in the AFC.  This would eliminate the Steelers since they beat them head to head.  They lost to the Bills and split with Tennessee so neither of those teams would be eliminated.  The Chiefs could possibly match their conference record and since they did not have the requisite 4 common opponents, the strength of victory tiebreaker would then come into effect.  Again I don’t feel like calculating that since I don’t think Jacksonville can beat New England.  They beat the Jets, but would lose interconference tiebreakers to either Denver or Cincinnati.

Bottom line:   Win; root for the Titans, and against all the other 8-6 and 7-7 teams.  As for the Jets, the winner of Denver/Cincinnati does not have a direct bearing on the Jaguars’ standing, but since Denver has an easier last game, they should root for Cincinnati.

Bills:  7-7 with tough finishing games against the Titans and Ravens.  The Bills need to win out to have a shot.  Since they beat the Jaguars, they would own that tiebreaker in case the Jags lose one.  I’ve already discussed the possibilities with the Jets.  Both the Bengals and Broncos have better interconference records, so the Bills need one of these teams to lose both their games.  They have a better interconference record than both the Steelers and Chiefs in case both of those teams also win out.

Bottom line:  Beat the Titans.  Root against Jaguars, Jets, Steelers, and Chiefs.  Since Denver has an easier finish than Cincinnati, and the Bills need one of these teams to lose both, they should root for Denver to beat Cincinnati.

Tennessee:  7-7 with games against Buffalo and New England.  Like the rest of the 7-7 teams, they would like to see either Denver or Cincinnati lose their finals 2.  They need to win out to have a chance.  If they win out and Jacksonville loses one, Tennesee would have a better interconference record, so would leapfrog the Jaguars.  They would also have a better interconference record than the Chiefs.  If both Tennesee and Pittsburgh won out, they would have the same interconference, but Pittsburgh has a better record against common opponents so would win that tiebreaker.

Bottom line:  Beat Buffalo.  Root for Denver, against all the other 8-6, and against Pittsburgh.

Steelers:  The situation for Steelers fans is not as bleak as one might think.  The Steelers are 7-7 with tough remaining games against the Ravens and Bengals.  They seem to have regained their late season form from last year, albeit against fairly easy competition the past 3 games.  They of course need to win these last two games, then look for help.  They own the head to head tiebreaker against the Chiefs and a common opponents tiebreaker against the Titans should both those teams also win out.  Buffalo would beat Pittsburgh due to a better interconference record if they also win out.  Jacksonville not only has a better record, but also beat them head to head.  Both the Broncos and Bengals would win tiebreakers, head to head against the Broncos, and interconference against the Bengals should both of them lose one game and all have 9-7 records.  If the Jets also finish 9-7, they would have the same interconference record as the Steelers, but would have an inferior common opponents’ record.  For the Steelers to make the playoffs, either the Broncos or the Bengals have to lose their last 2 games, Jaguars also need to lose 2, Jets need to lose one to Miami or Oakland, and the Bills need to lose one.  All these are not that outrageous.  The Bengals finish with the Broncos in Denver, then against the Steelers.  The Jags play New England, then the Chiefs who are always tough at home.  The Bills finish against the Titans and the Ravens.  I think the odds are about 50% that the Bengals lose to the Broncos, 75% that the Jaguars lose to the Patriots and Chiefs, and 90% that the Bills will lose one.  The really questionable game is Jets vs Dolphins.  I give this one about 60% for the Jets, but the Dolphins are tough at home.

Bottom line:  Win out.  Root for Denver, Miami, New England, Chiefs (to keep their playoff hopes alive so they’ll have something to play for next week against the Jaguars), and Titans.

Chiefs:  At 7-7, they have an easy one this week against Oakland, then finish at home against Jacksonville.  Even if they win out, they’ll need a lot of help because they have the worst conference record amongst all the contenders and lost the head to head with Pittsburgh.  They need all the 8-6 teams to lose out, and all the 7-7 teams to lose one.

Bottom line:  Win out, and then see above.

The NFC playoff possibilities are too crazy to touch now.  The only team that has clinched their division is Chicago.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and the Giants all could still win the East or get wildcards.  Atlanta at 7-7 still has a pretty good shot.  The 6-8 teams, St. Louis, San Francisco, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Carolina are all likely out of it.