Who will be the most disappointed fans at the end of this season?  Green Bay, San Francisco, Houston, and the NY Jets all stink and only the most blindly optimistic fan would think otherwise, so fans in these cities should not be disappointed when their teams earn spots at the top of next year’s draft.  My vote for the team with the highest expectations who will greatly under perform is the Miami Dolphins.  I have read multiple publications and websites predicting Miami will finish anywhere from 9-7 to 11-5.  Sports Illustrated even has them going to the Super Bowl.  Every one of these pundits point out Miami’s strong finish in 2005 as well as the addition of Daunte Culpepper as factors in their predictions.  The Dolphins won its final six games last season against:  Oakland, Buffalo, San Diego, NY Jets, Tennessee, and New England.  Although I would consider San Diego a quality win, the only playoff team in this group was New England, a team with no incentive to win, and it seemed, actually played to lose in order to face Jacksonville in the playoffs (remember Flutie’s drop kick?).  This finish is reminiscent of the 2004 Bills.  That team also finished strong, winning six in a row before losing to Pittsburgh’s second team to end the season.  That win streak was also built on a weak schedule.  Nevertheless, some experts were picking Buffalo to win the division the next season.  Buffalo’s poor QB play, weak offensive line, and injuries to the defense eventually led to a 5-11 record and the eighth pick in the draft.  The Dolphins have similar issues at QB and offensive line. 

The trade for Culpepper has been hailed as the final piece of the puzzle in Miami.  He has been to multiple pro bowls and was it not for Peyton Manning’s touchdown record in 2004, would have won the MVP that year.  The next year, without Randy Moss, he was absolutely awful through seven games, before finally going down with a severe knee injury.  Without Moss, Culpepper looked lost.   His backup is Joey Harrington who flunked out in Detroit before coming to Miami.  He has a strong arm, but is not accurate and is easily rattled under pressure.

Both QB’s will likely see a lot of this pressure behind Miami’s mediocre offensive line.  In Hudson Houck, this offensive line has one of the best coaches around, but the talent is just not there.  Culpepper has never had a quick release, and coming back from a severe knee injury, his mobility will be limited, a problem which will be magnified behind this offensive line.  Ronnie Brown will also have difficulty finding running lanes behind this line.  A big back with speed and with a veteran fullback in Fred Beasly leading the way, Brown should have a big year, even behind this offensive line.  He has never had to carry the load for any team, playing with Cadillac Williams at Auburn, then last year with Ricky Williams, but I don’t believe this will be a factor.  Miami also has an excellent receiver in Chris Chambers and an outstanding TE in Randy McMichael, but will any QB have the time to get them the ball?  Mike Mularkey is the new offensive coordinator.  He is known for his imaginative trick plays, but I question his playcalling. 

Like the offense, the defense has a new coordinator: Dom Capers.  A 3-4 guru who specializes in the zone blitz, he will bring an aggressive attacking defense to Miami.  This defense was second in the league in sacks last year, and under Capers, is expected to be even better.  Unfortunately, this veteran defense is a year older, and has not received an infusion of youth, especially along the critical defensive line.  Jason Taylor is the star of this unit, but he is now 32 years old.  His linemates Kevin Carter, Keith Traylor, Jeff Zgonina, and Vonnnie Holiday are also all well past their primes.  They do have a good young lineman in Matt Roth who saw limited action last year.  Linebacker Zach Thomas shows no signs of slowing down, but he is small for a 3-4 middle linebacker, and may have difficulty fighting off the blocks of guards and fullbacks who make it to the second level.  In the 3-4, Taylor drops back to OLB, but is a liability in coverage.  In previous years, the strength of the Dolphins’ defense was their cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison.  Both are gone, with their spots filled by Travis Daniels and journeyman Will Allen.  This strength has turned into a weakness.  Rookie first round pick Jason Allen should contribute little.

Everyone seems to consider head coach, Nick Saban, “highly respected”, but I’m not sure why.  He did win a college national championship at LSU, but so did NFL washouts Butch Davis (I give him credit for Larry Coker’s win) and Steve Spurrier.  Perhaps, it is his close relationship to the NFL’s current genius, Bill Belichick.  In any case, I don’t believe he has done enough in the NFL to warrant this label.

Looking at Miami’s schedule with tough games against Pittsburgh, New England twice, Kansas City, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Chicago, Indianapolis, and a Detroit team which is always tough on Thanksgiving, I see this team going 7-9, possibly 9-7 if its cards fall right.  Miami fans will be hitting the beaches in January.