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Power Rankings, Schmower Rankings
By Bill Chuang 9/28/06

Power Rankings.  All the major websites including this one have one.  As a rabid fan, I have my favorite sites for finding where my favorite teams rank that week, and I visit them religiously.  Currently the Steelers are ranked anywhere from 13-16 based on their 1-2 record.  Most sites have the Colts number one though I saw a site with the Bengals number one.  As much as I like the little blurbs of analysis which always come with each team’s ranking, I’m beginning to see the frivolity of these rankings.  The problem is that early in the season anyway, there is such a small sample of games to analyze.  It is like trying to find the new miracle drug using 3 laboratory mice.  For example, after the first game this season, I saw a ranking which put the Ravens at number one thanks to their walloping of one of the preseason favorites, the Buccaneers.  The Ravens are probably an improved team just due to the fact that Kyle Boller is no longer starting, but they have problems beyond their quarterback and certainly are not one of the best teams in the league.  They are 3-0, but the combined record of their opponents is 0-8.

I was thinking about this last year while watching the Patriots struggle through the early part of their schedule.  My favorite teams are the Steelers and whoever is playing the Patriots that week (Patriots vs. Bengals this week is a win/win for me), so I usually revel in Patriot losses.  In the back of my mind though, I knew that it really didn’t matter.  This team would find a way to put it together in the end of the year when it really mattered,   which is exactly what they did and almost made it to the Super Bowl again.  The Steelers were the same.  Given up for dead at midseason, they put together the run which concluded in the championship.

I remember listening to sports talk radio back in April waiting for some NFL draft news and having to slog though all the talk about baseball.  Back then, the Red Sox had just swept the Yankees (or something like that.  Does it really matter?  It’s just baseball.)  Anyway, they were all talking about how the Yankees were finished and what would they do next year.  Maybe they just needed something to talk about, but I was thinking how ridiculous the whole discussion was.  Baseball has 162 games, so who cares what happens in the beginning of the season.  Since the NFL has only 16 games, each game is almost exactly 10 times as important, which in my mind makes football that much better than baseball.  In the NFL, every game is huge, right?  For the most part, this is true, but I’m starting to think that the early part of the NFL season matters little as long as the team can mentally get it together for the final stretch drive to the playoffs and beyond.  In fact, I think this is a better way to go.  Last year, the Steelers had to win and so were in playoff mode for the last six regular season games.  They won those and carried that momentum into the playoffs.  Bill Belichick saw this, which is why he basically threw their last game against the Dolphins to avoid the Steelers.  The Steelers may or may not have been the best team last year, but they certainly played well when it mattered most.

It works the other way as well.  The Colts topped everyone’s power rankings all season last year.  They went 13-0 before finally losing to San Diego.  They clinched their playoff berth so early that when they finally had to actually play, they were not mentally ready to do so.  The Steelers ended up grinding them into the RCA dome turf, though they almost lost due to a blown call and a late Bettis fumble.  Basically every team in which there is a discussion about an undefeated season does poorly in the post season.  Before the Colts last year, the 2003 Chiefs made Nick Buonocontti and the rest of the 1972 Dolphins sweat, before finally losing and then exited early from the playoffs.   That same year, the Vikings started off 6-0 and were near the top of all the power rankings, but ended up missing the playoffs.  It is rare for a team to dominate throughout the season and win the Super Bowl.  The last team that did it was the 2004 Patriots, and they were a bit under the radar because of the great season Pittsburgh was having.  The 2003 Patriots started off 0-2 and everyone was writing them off, before they won their second championship.

My point to all this is that, as difficult as it is to watch, I would like to see my team lose sometime early in the season.  Get the losses out of the way, and have your players read and hear about how their season is over and who is over the hill. This of course assumes that you have some actual talent on your team, and no debilitating injuries.  Then when the games really count, your team will be like a caged, hungry animal.  Let the Colts have their glory, then release the Beast.