If it isn’t bad enough there are bowls named after a pizza joint and auto shop we have to sit through teams who were mediocre on a good day. There are 64 teams invited to the party, 54% of the field. Of those 7 finished with a losing record in conference play while another 11 went 4-4. In other words 28% couldn’t beat more than half the good teams they played.

Iowa was passed over despite finishing sixth in the Big Ten while three teams behind them in the standings will be bowling. That’s because they were 6-6 after losing the finale to Western Michigan. Northwestern was also 6-6 and might have gotten in if not for a loss to otherwise 0-11 Duke. South Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe and Louisville round out the other five teams finishing 6-6 without a bowl bid.

There are 6 teams who did get in with a 6-6 record and 16 who are 7-5. Given the number of cupcake games on most schedules it doesn’t take much to finish with those records and that’s what we’ll see in 34% of the bowl entrants. Obviously adding a playoff would greatly alleviate this situation. This way the best teams, whether it is 8 or 16, would be involved in that tournament. The rest compete in bowl games with lessened expectations.

You can imagine my excitement breaking down these first 16 games. Only 3 of them pair teams who were 8-4 or better while eleven feature two teams with winning records.

Poinsettia Bowl: Utah (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4): The Utes are an extremely underrated football team. Other than an inexplicable 27-0 loss to otherwise 1-10 UNLV they have been very competitive. Their other three losses were to good teams heading to bowl games (Oregon State, Air Force, BYU) and only one of those came at home. In the meat of their season they ripped off seven straight wins by an average of 33-13. They really haven’t had anyone’s attention since thumping then ranked UCLA 44-6 though. The Midshipmen have had a very successful season as well and also had an eye opening win, beating Notre Dame at South Bend 46-44 in triple overtime. Along the way they also lost 59-52 to Delaware from the FCS, albeit a team that went to the playoff championship. Another wacky result was their 74-62 victory at North Texas (2-10). However, they beat Air Force 31-20 and the Falcons beat Utah 20-12. I don’t think that means much. Utah has the #3 scoring defense in the nation and allows just 3.6 yards per rush. Navy will not be able to run them over. Only nine teams have given up more points than Navy who I don’t think can stop the Utes from scoring and the venue (San Diego) favors them as well: Utah 38, Navy 23

New Orleans Bowl: Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5): I would have to be pretty bored to tune into this one. The Owls won the Sun Belt thanks to a big 38-32 win at Troy in the season finale. They played four BCS teams, losing by an average of 45-16. The Tigers couldn’t even win the East division of Conference USA thanks to getting blown away by UCF (56-20) and East Carolina (56-40). Their only game against a BCS opponent came in the opener when they lost 23-21 to Mississippi who then went 0-8 in the SEC. They did finish strong winning five of their last six. Both teams are frequently involved in high scoring games and this should be no different. Because there will be a lot of scoring and since neither of these defenses can stop the run I will take the team with the better quarterback. Rusty Smith has thrown for over 250 yards in seven straight games with 18 touchdowns against 6 interceptions over that span: Florida Atlanta 37, Memphis 31

New Mexico Bowl: Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4): The Lobos again host this bowl after a successful season finishing fourth in the Mountain West. They were competitive most of the season other than losing the opener to UTEP who wound up 4-8 and getting blown out in the final two road games at TCU (37-0) and Utah (28-10). Their biggest wins were over Arizona (29-27) and Air Force (34-31) giving them a 3-3 record against bowl teams. The Wolf Pack opened the year losing 52-10 at Nebraska which didn’t look bad at the time. Their fourth place finish in the WAC was marked by close losses to the teams who finished ahead of them. They led Hawaii late before falling 28-26, took Boise State quadruple overtime in a wild 69-67 defeat and had a frantic rally against Fresno State during a 49-41 loss. With all due respect they really don’t deserve to be in a bowl after beating mostly terrible teams. Their only significant win was pounding Louisiana Tech 49-10 in the finale. That game essentially was a playoff as both teams entered 5-6. They both met New Mexico State with New Mexico winning 44-34 at home while Nevada won 40-38 on the road. Both teams also beat UNLV at home although New Mexico won more convincingly (27-6) than Nevada (27-20). This is another game to avoid watching and should be a relatively easy win for the home team: New Mexico 30, Nevada 20

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6): This is the first of two rematches this bowl season. The Bruins beat the Cougars 27-17 at the Rose Bowl despite 391 passing yards from Max Hall. I won’t be surprised to see Hall pop up on the Heisman radar next year after throwing for at least 251 yards nine times this season with four games over 330. Their only other loss was 55-47 to Tulsa. Hall had 537 yards passing in that one with 4 touchdowns, but also had 2 interceptions with one taken back for a touchdown. Tulsa finished 9-4 and won the West division of Conference USA. BYU finished 4-2 against bowl teams plus a win over Arizona who otherwise would have been bowl eligible. They also destroyed Eastern Washington (42-7) who went to the FCS quarterfinals before losing to eventual champion Appalachian State 38-35. The Bruins are without a head coach and without much direction after losing five of their final seven. They somehow managed to go 4-3 against teams who are in bowls. Their season will be known for their inexplicable losses to Utah (44-6) Notre Dame (20-6) and Washington State (27-7). In Sin City you wouldn’t expect Brigham Young to flourish, but they haven’t lost in three months. Hall should have another big day passing and I think the Cougars can contain the Bruin offense to turn the tables on their previous meeting: BYU 27, UCLA 17

Hawaii Bowl: Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5): The Broncos had hoped to play in a BCS bowl for a second consecutive season, but lost here in Hawaii against the Warriors to close the season second place in the WAC. They were pretty dominant most of the season with eight wins by 13+ points while going 3-1 against bowl teams. The Pirates opened the season playing five bowl teams in their opening six games. They ended that stretch 3-3 including a win over North Carolina who finished 4-8. After that the only bowl team they faced was Memphis, a 56-40 win. Three times this season they have been held to 7 points, all on the road. This is about as far away from home as they can get. Boise State has just made this trip and their offense hasn’t missed a beat since losing 24-10 to Washington in their second game. Since then they have averaged 44.7 points per game and should do plenty of damage against an East Carolina team that has allowed at least 28 eight times and three times given up 40+. Along with the aforementioned scoring challenged games the Pirates did post 34+ seven times this year so we might see a high scoring game for fans used to watching Hawaii play. Still, Boise State has the more potent and balanced offense. Ian Johnson will be the MVP with over 150 yards rushing for the Broncos: Boise State 35, East Carolina 23

Motor City Bowl: Purdue (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (8-5): The first meeting was so exciting these teams decided to do it again. Purdue led that one 31-0 at halftime en route to a 45-22 win. It was part of their 5-0 start during which Curtis Painter had 18 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions. Since then he has just 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions as they lost five of their final seven. They finished 1-5 against bowl teams with losses by an average of 34-20. The Chippewas were just 1-3 against bowl teams with the lone win being 58-38 over Ball State, hardly a power. They were also blown away by Kansas (52-7) and Clemson (70-14) on the road. Justin Hoskins had a strong rushing average (6.0) with 10 touchdowns, but LeFevour was the MAC’s version of Tim Tebow at quarterback. He had 23 touchdown passes and 3,360 yards with 1,008 yards rushing for 17 more touchdowns. In the first meeting he had 364 yards passing, most of which came when the game was well in hand. Central Michigan scored 34+ points in their last five games and nine times overall. They have also given up 30+ ten times. Purdue has eight games scoring 31+ points and has allowed 23+ six times. Any way this game is mixed up, even playing in Detroit won’t keep a MAC team in it against a Big Ten opponent. This conference will be underdogs in six of eight bowls with Penn State as the only other favorite. They won’t blow it: Purdue 42, Central Michigan 27

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State (10-2) vs. Texas (9-3): After seven dreary bowl games we get a great pairing that is better than half of the ones played on January 1. The Sun Devils are given no respect in the polls after losing only to 10-2 USC and an Oregon team that was dominant with Dennis Dixon. They finished 4-2 against bowl teams and knocked rival Arizona out of contention by beating them in the season finale. The Longhorns were also 4-2 playing bowl competition and benefited from a quirky schedule rotation that kept them from playing Kansas, Missouri and Colorado from the North Division. They all went to bowl games. The defense has really been under fire lately allowing 35.3 points the past four games. Seven times they have given up 25+ points. Even in the scoring happy Pac-10 Arizona State only gave up over 20 points on three occasions including the losses to Oregon and USC. Their offense has been much less potent of late with 22.8 points over their last four games after averaging 36.9 during an 8-0 start. Both teams have steady if not spectacular quarterbacks. Carpenter emerged from the controversy of Keller’s transfer to throw only 8 interceptions. He has just one over their last five games although he has been sacked an unruly 50 times. McCoy’s sophomore season has been marred by interceptions (18) including five games with at least two. He has stud running back Jamaal Charles to fall back on though. His last four outings have produced an average of 184 yards rushing with 8 touchdowns, single handedly leading comebacks to beat Nebraska and Oklahoma State. The Sun Devils give up just 3.4 yards per carry and that could be the difference, along with the friendly San Diego crowd. Vince Young performed miracles playing in the nearby Rose Bowl, but that’s Vince Young: Arizona State 31, Texas 24

Champs Sports Bowl: Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5): The Eagles lost their rematch with Virginia Tech in the ACC title game and this is their punishment. At least the weather is nice in Orlando. The Spartans were 3-3 against bowl teams, all from the Big Ten including four of their final six opponents so at least they are prepared for the competition. Boston College is 4-3 against bowl competition having kept N.C. State and Miami, FL from eligibility by beating them. Their final six opponents all finished at least 5-7 so they are also fresh off playing strong teams. Both teams swept Bowling Green and Notre Dame with Boston College winning by an aggregate 82-38 while Michigan State won 49-31. Matt Ryan is clearly the better quarterback as the Spartans will rely on their backfield of Ringer and Caulcrick. The pair has combined for a hefty 231 rushes for 2,169 yards and 27 touchdowns. Ringer has six games with over 100 yards rushing and Caulcrick has scored multiple times in seven games. Unfortunately they are facing a defense giving up the second lowest rushing average (2.2) in the nation. Only five teams have scored more than 17 points against Boston College this season, the last three of which resulted in losses. If the defense can stop the run it will be over early. If not Ryan might need some heroics. He is being talked about as the top quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft and with eleven games of 285+ yards passing it is easy to see why. He has been interception prone of late, however, with 12 in his last six games. When they build a lead the pressure will be off and he can give the scouts something to think about as they rate him against Woodson and Brohm: Boston College 33, Michigan State 17  
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