Preview of the Second Half of the College Football Bowl Season
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
12/30/07


These might not be the bowl games everyone wanted, but hopefully some of them will provide us with exciting, unexpected results. The second half of our preview features just one team who finished 6-6 so the level of play should increase dramatically. We’ll see four of the year’s top four passers in total yardage and the top six in passing touchdowns. Top running backs are also on display with three of the top four leading rushers and the top 4 touchdown producers on the ground. Not to be left out seven of the top nine yardage leaders at wide receiver will hit the field. Let the real games begin.

Humanitarian Bowl: Georgia Tech (7-5) vs. Fresno State (8-4): This is a meeting between teams who were terrible against bowl competition. The Yellow Jackets were 1-5 plus a win that kept Miami, FL from eligibility. The Bulldogs went 0-4 while dusting off two 5-7 teams in Kansas State and San Jose State. The venue in Boise, Idaho favors Fresno State and Georgia Tech will be led by an interim coach. Neither team had any bad losses over the course of the season. The Yellow Jackets lost 28-26 to Maryland who slipped into a bowl as a result. The Bulldogs lost in the WAC only to Hawaii and Boise State, were blown out at Oregon when Dennis Dixon was rolling, and took Texas A&M to multiple overtimes before losing 47-45 on the road. Georgia Tech has a slightly stiffer defense, but they also played in the ACC where points don’t fly as furiously. Tashard Choice has been mostly dominant on the ground for Georgia Tech as a one man gang while Fresno State has gotten 400+ yards out of four different players. That quartet has combined for 2,313 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns, a pretty scary total. Their quarterback Tom Brandstater has only been sacked 17 times and threw just 5 interceptions. Georgia Tech’s Taylor Bennett has thrown only 6 touchdown passes. I think this FSU has a lot of success offensively because in bowl games scoring often times is pretty easy to do. The Yellow Jackets can’t keep up: Fresno State 31, Georgia Tech 21

Sun Bowl: South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4): It was a season filled with quarterback injuries in the Pac-10, but none hit harder than Dennis Dixon’s season ending re-injury at Arizona. They lost that game and the next two. Now the question is how well they can recover. With the Heisman contender in the mix they played all bowl teams in their out of conference schedule, beating all three. Overall they were 5-3 against bowl competition plus a win over 5-7 Washington State who otherwise would be in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Bulls had similar success with a 4-3 record while also beating Louisville (6-6) and Pittsburgh (5-7). Both teams also had signature big wins. Oregon went to Michigan and blew them out 39-7 while also ending the national title hopes of USC and Arizona State prior to Dixon’s injury. South Florida had a memorable overtime win at Auburn then beat West Virginia two weeks later. They suffered a bit of a swoon losing three in a row, but closed the season scoring 48.0 points per game while winning their last three. The El Paso, Texas venue is about as neutral as it gets in bowl season. There is just one question left. Which team of these two that suffered from the “curse of #2” will end the season on a high note? I don’t think Oregon’s defense can shut down South Florida enough to compensate for their own offensive deficiency. Jonathan Stewart is a solid running back, but with an extensive game plan designed to stop him I’m not sure he can carry them: South Florida 30, Oregon 15

Music City Bowl: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5): The Seminoles will be a shadow of their former selves with three dozen players not making the trip for various reasons. Their finish was disappointing by their standards, but the season wasn’t without highlights. They were 4-4 against bowl teams and also beat N.C. State (5-7) who might have replaced them in this bowl if not for that 27-10 victory. The big win was 27-17 at Boston College who was then #2, but they were later blown out on the road at Virginia Tech (40-21) and Florida (45-12). Speaking of the Gators they also beat the Wildcats (45-37). Florida State did have another win over the SEC, downing Alabama 21-14. Despite playing in a tough conference Kentucky actually played fewer bowl teams, finishing 3-4. They also beat Louisville (6-6) and Vanderbilt (5-7) to keep them out of bowls. The game will be played in SEC country (Nashville) and the Wildcats have an NFL ready quarterback in Andre’ Woodson. Their only challenge is not assuming the outmanned ‘Noles will simply roll over. I want to see the Kentucky offense that rang up 37+ points eight times as opposed to the one that scored 13 and 14 points over their last four. Defensively Florida State gave up 37, 40 and 45 points over their final six games and scored 30 only once. That was way back on September 8 against UAB. Too much offense taking on not enough defense is the story here: Kentucky 38, Florida State 13

Insight Bowl: Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6): The Hoosiers are very happy to be here. On the plus side they were on the brink of a really big finish without close losses to Penn State (36-31) or at Northwestern (31-28). On the down side they didn’t have to play Ohio State or Michigan due to the quirky Big Ten scheduling. As it was they were 2-4 against bowl teams plus wins that left Iowa (6-6) and Western Michigan (5-7) home for the holidays. The Cowboys had a much tougher schedule facing only two teams who finished worse than 5-7. They were 2-5 against bowl teams while knocking Kansas State and Nebraska out of the mix. Their schedule helped them a little too as they avoided Missouri (11-2) and Colorado (6-6). This game will not be decided on defense unless it is a lack thereof. Oklahoma State has scored 49 touchdowns while allowing 45. Indiana has a 42-39 edge. That’s a combined average of 7.3 touchdowns. The Cowboys have allowed 35+ points seven times while the Hoosiers have given up 31+ in four of their last six. Often times bowl games between teams who can’t play defense comes down to which team has an offensive star. Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis quietly had a solid season with 26 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He had five games with at least 263 yards passing and six with 3+ touchdowns. One issue was sacks. Against better teams in Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin and even Northwestern he went down a combined 24 times and they lost them all. Oklahoma State has a playmaking quarterback in Zac Robinson who has 2,522 yards passing, 777 rushing yards and 27 total touchdowns. He was sacked only 5 times and threw 8 interceptions. I think he is a bigger threat and has a better running back in Dantrell Savage to help them outscore the Hoosiers on a very neutral field at Sun Devil Stadium: Oklahoma State 40, Indiana 31

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4): What I’d really like to see here is the winning team being able to keep the mascot “Tigers” while the loser has to switch to something original. Even without that this is a bit of a grudge match with Clemson led by a Bowden after Auburn was said to have treated his brother poorly when he departed. This is yet another bowl game with an SEC team playing in “SEC country” at the Georgia Dome which favors Auburn. The nation has really forgotten how good they can be. Losing to Mississippi State dropped them to 1-2, but since then they lost on a late touchdown at LSU (30-24) while being drubbed at Georgia (45-20). This trip to the Peach State should be much different. Auburn was 3-4 against bowl teams plus wins over 5-7 teams Kansas State and Vanderbilt. Clemson played more competitive teams in a less top heavy schedule. They were 4-3 against bowl teams plus wins over Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) N.C. State (5-7) and South Carolina (6-6). Unlike most bowl games this should be a defensive struggle. Auburn has held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 10 points and four of those were SEC teams. Clemson has given up no more than 18 points seven times this season and only twice have teams topped 21 against them, a 49-26 blowout over Louisiana-Monroe and a 41-23 loss to Virginia Tech. Both teams gave up 22 touchdowns this season. I really like Cullen Harper who had at least 225 yards passing for Clemson eight times. Davis and Spiller give them a 1-2 punch in the backfield as well. Auburn’s offense is less reliable and that should be the difference: Clemson 20, Auburn 17

Outback Bowl: Tennessee (9-4) vs. Wisconsin (9-3): If Erik Ainge had kept his cool in the SEC title game the Volunteers would be in the Sugar Bowl. If the Badgers had been able to stop Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall they would be in the Rose Bowl. There is a level of disappointment on both sides, but for Tennessee the feeling is very fresh while Wisconsin has had a chance to absorb falling from a #5 ranking with the aforementioned loss to Illinois. Tampa, Florida is a fairly neutral site although Tennessee has played in Gainesville already and their fans will have a shorter trip. Then again, Wisconsin is making their fourth straight trip to the Sunshine State for a bowl game having played in the last two Capital One bowls (Orlando) and right here in 2005. An SEC team has been the opponent each time with wins the last two years over Arkansas and Auburn while losing to Georgia. History seems to be on their side, but Wisconsin played a softer schedule. They were only 3-3 against bowl teams while also beating Washington State (5-7) and Iowa (6-6). Two of their losses were of the blowout variety on the road at Penn State (38-7) and Ohio State (38-17). Tennessee was 5-4 against bowl competition having also knocked off South Carolina (6-6) and Vanderbilt (5-7). The only duck on their schedule was Arkansas State although they also had their share of road blowouts at Cal (45-31) Florida (59-20) and Alabama (41-17). However, down the stretch they were playing very well. This should be another high scoring game with Wisconsin having given up 31+ six times while Tennessee scored 31+ eight times. Ainge has the senior experience and the only times he failed to throw for at least 216 yards were three games when they won by at least three touchdowns. The Badgers wanted to counter with running back P.J. Hill, but he is hurt. Without him they sputtered past Minnesota 41-34 in their finale. The Gophers went 1-11. I like the Vols to rebound nicely: Tennessee 28, Wisconsin 18

Cotton Bowl: Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4): Two of the Heisman finalists will be on display in Dallas and should play pivotal roles in the outcome. Chase Daniel is a bit of a Drew Brees clone at six feet tall, but coming off 3,527 yards of passing last year with 28 touchdowns he had 4,170/33 this season. He also has just 20 interceptions in 26 games. He had at least 294 yards passing every time out in their 5-1 start, a streak broken when he threw only 19 passes in a 41-10 win over Texas Tech. Overall he topped 284 yards 10 times. His only black mark was losing twice to Oklahoma, but the Tigers were still good against bowl teams with a 5-2 record plus wins over three teams who went 5-7 in Kansas State, Nebraska and Western Michigan. The Razorbacks went 2-4 and didn’t play Georgia or Florida. Their star Darren McFadden has two second place finishes in the Heisman voting, piling up over 1,600 yards in those seasons with 4,485 for his three year career. He wasn’t perfect this season, but nine times he topped 110 yards rushing and with 304 carries proved he is NFL ready. There is also the matter of his sidekick Felix Jones who has 1,100+ yards in each of the past two seasons. Jones had six games with 100+ yards. Auburn was the only team to contain them both. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. There will be offensive firepower. They have combined to score 115 touchdowns this season or 4.6 per game. Arkansas came on strong down the stretch winning five of their final six. They have 10 games with 29+ points scored, but gave up 37.3 over their final four including the multiple overtime win over LSU. Missouri scored at least 31 points in every regular season game before losing 38-17 to Oklahoma in the Big XII title game. Their defense also faltered in their last four, allowing 31.0 points over that stretch. Get your scorecards ready. Las Vegas might be interested to know that Arkansas leads the nation allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 45.7% of their passes. They could force Daniel into some mistakes. Missouri counters with a pretty good run defense, but I’m not sure they can contain both Jones and McFadden. The statistics could bear that out though because their numbers are quite similar to the one aforementioned team who did (Auburn). When push comes to shove, I’ll take the running backs in an upset: Arkansas 27, Missouri 24

Capital One Bowl: Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3): The Gators won’t travel far to watch their team in Orlando. Tim Tebow will try to avoid the jinx haunting Heisman winners in bowl games. Troy Smith’s Ohio State team was blown out in last year’s title game while Reggie Bush had a key fumble in a losing effort the previous season. This won’t be for all the marbles though, and the Wolverines started 0-2 primarily because of running quarterbacks. Superman is their worst nightmare. Florida has faced a very competitive schedule with only one opponent finishing worse than 5-7. They were 4-3 against bowl teams and beat four others who were on the cusp of qualifying. Obviously the Big Ten wasn’t nearly as hard to navigate this season as the SEC. Michigan’s opening loss to Appalachian State might be lessened after the Mountaineers won the FCS title, but it’s still a lower level team. They were also 4-3 against bowl competition plus a win over Northwestern (6-6) but three of their losses were by at least 11 points. Florida lost heartbreakers to Auburn (20-17) and LSU (28-24) with Georgia (42-30) the only team to really handle them. They can stop the running of Mike Hart and even if Tim Tebow isn’t right as rain physically he will destroy this defense. If you believe the hype he will also cure cancer and end world hunger in the process: Florida 34, Michigan 15
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