Texas Bowl: TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4): It is a good thing the game will be played at Reliant Stadium because I’m not sure anyone outside of Texas cares about this game. The Horned Frogs were 1-4 against bowl teams with three losses by a touchdown or less. The Cougars were 0-4, making their living against bad teams. They didn’t beat any teams who finished better than 4-8. Both teams swept SMU and Colorado State with TCU (45-19) winning by a slightly larger margin of victory than Houston (76-55) in much lower scoring games. This really comes down to Houston’s offense (55 touchdowns) against TCU’s defense (24 touchdowns). Anthony Alridge leads the Cougars on the ground. He has three games with over 200 yards rushing and sports a 7.3 average per carry in his college career. The Horned Frogs can stuff the run though, giving up just 3.0 yards a carry. They played in a much tougher conference and even while playing in their opponent’s backyard this is their game to lose: TCU 24, Houston 19

Meineke Bowl: Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4): Neither of these would have dreamed they would be successful a few years ago. The Demon Deacons really emerged last year with a surprise ACC title, finishing 11-3 with a loss in the Orange Bowl to Louisville. This season the Huskies were an upstart, sharing the Big East title with West Virginia despite getting their dog collars handed to them by the Mountaineers 66-21. Even playing in different conferences they have two common opponents with pretty similar results. They each lost 17-16 at Virginia. Connecticut destroyed Duke (45-14) while Wake Forest nearly blew a 34-9 lead while holding on for a 41-36 win. The Demon Deacons played a decent schedule with a 3-3 record against bowl teams. They also closed the season by knocking N.C. State and Vanderbilt out of bowl eligibility. The Huskies were 2-3 when playing bowl competition and also beat Louisville (6-6) and Pittsburgh (5-7). Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Connecticut’s season is their six wins by 19+ points and for a team coming off a 4-8 season that’s pretty good. They did collapse down the stretch in the aforementioned lopsided loss when they allowed 8 touchdowns after entering with only 16 given up all year. Also, two weeks prior to that Cincinnati handed them a 27-3 loss. Wake Forest finished much stronger after starting the year 0-2, but was blown out 44-10 at Clemson late. The game should be dominated by defense, and the Charlotte venue is enough for me to sway towards the Demon Deacons: Wake Forest 19, Connecticut 13

Liberty Bowl: UCF (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5): It seemed like every time the Bulldogs won a game in the SEC it was considered an upset, but they finished 4-4 with victories at Auburn and Kentucky and a home win over Alabama. Overall they finished 3-4 against bowl teams plus a loss to South Carolina who finished 6-6. Still, when they lost it was ugly. All of them were by 12+ points including their eye opening 45-0 defeat to LSU in the opener. They also needed a dramatic rally to beat rival Mississippi, a team that finished 0-8 in SEC play. Central Florida actually went 4-3 against teams who are bowling plus a win at N.C. State who finished 5-7. They won their final seven games which started and finished with wins over Tulsa to give them a Conference USA championship. None of those victories were by less than 14 points so they come in confident. They also have Kevin Smith with his 2,448 yards rushing and 29 touchdowns. Only team has held him under 124 yards, South Florida during a 64-12 beat down. However, the last time the Bulldogs faced a big time running back they held Darren McFadden of Arkansas to a 3.1 average on 28 rushes. Which defense will show up for them? In seven games they gave up no more than 17 points, but allowed 33+ in the other five. In Memphis the home field advantage should help them. They are more battle tested and should pull this one out: Mississippi State 24, Central Florida 22

Alamo Bowl: Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5): Neither team was a factor in their conference race. The Nittany Lions started out with two road losses in the Big Ten and never recovered, finishing fifth. They were 3-4 against bowl teams plus wins over Iowa (6-6) and Buffalo (5-7) during a schedule littered with mediocre teams. Their signature victory was a 38-7 spanking of Wisconsin who was otherwise 9-2. The Aggies were also 4-4 in conference, but their woes came late in the season when heavyweights Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri beat them on consecutive weeks by an average of 34-17. Also similar was their 3-4 record against bowl teams and they did beat Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) who later took down Alabama. One major difference is the head coaching situation. Franchione is gone for the Aggies while Paterno has led the Nittany Lions since before the wheel was invented. One thing I can say for Penn State is that despite not playing great teams they did win six times by at least 20 points. The San Antonio venue certainly favors Texas A&M, but their defense has been beaten up quite a bit. In their last three they gave up 112 points while earlier allowing 34 to an offensively challenged Miami, FL team. Penn State has also had issues over their last five allowing 31+ three times, but they also have six games allowing no more than 14. Somehow I trust their defense more: Penn State 23, Texas A&M 17

Independence Bowl: Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6): This is one of the games where people question whether or not there are too many bowl games. The Tide just lost to Louisiana-Monroe and didn’t win a game in November. Their 3-0 start faded into a disastrous 3-6 finish in which they somehow managed to destroy SEC East champion Tennessee 41-17. The Buffaloes gained national notoriety for upsetting Oklahoma, but just two weeks later were roughed up at Kansas State (47-20) and then pummeled at home by Missouri (55-10). Does a .500 team who has lost three times by at least 19 points really deserve a bowl game? They also lost to otherwise 2-9 Iowa State late in the season. Overall they were 2-4 against bowl teams while also beating Miami, OH (6-7) and Nebraska (5-7). Alabama was 3-5 plus a win over Vanderbilt (5-7). Each of them lost to Florida State in September. Colorado lost 16-6 at home while Alabama lost 21-14 on the road. One question I have is if the Tide can actually score. They have 36 points in their last three games. The Colorado defense has been beaten up though, having allowed 40.8 points over the past four games. Home field helps Alabama in Shreveport which seems to be a trend this bowl season for the SEC. I think Saban has them ready to slug this one out: Alabama 19, Colorado 15

Armed Forces Bowl: California (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3): The demise of the Golden Bears was one of the big stories this season. Quarterback Nate Longshore fell apart after getting hurt against Oregon and the team followed suit. He has loose bone chips and at this point I wish I was a doctor. Then I’d know if a month off is enough to return him to early season form when this was legitimately a national title contender. DeSean Jackson is also banged up and might not be very interested in risking his NFL draft status for a meeting with the Falcons in Fort Worth, Texas. He has bigger games ahead. For the record Cal was 2-4 against bowl teams including their memorable 45-31 win over SEC East champion Tennessee. They also beat Arizona (5-7) and Washington State (5-7). Losing to either would have put those teams in this game. Air Force was 2-3 against bowl teams while taking second in the Mountain West. Both beat Colorado State along the way. Cal was up big before a late rally against their backup defense nearly bit them in a 34-28 win. Air Force laid them out 45-21. The Falcons do have the offense to cause problems in this game. In six of their final seven games they scored 30+ points. Cal can keep up if Longshore is healthy because they still have great receivers and a solid lead rusher in Forsett. They have been stuck in neutral during their slide averaging 20.3 points during the 1-6 finish after putting up 39.4 while starting 5-0. Rest will do them good and they should coast: Cal 34, Air Force 22