Rose Bowl: USC (10-2) vs. Illinois (9-3): It’s a good thing bowl officials are bent on tradition or we might have had to sit through Georgia meeting USC in a battle between two of the hottest teams in the country. Then again, if USC won that game convincingly it probably would have forced another split national title, undermining the integrity of the failing BCS. Instead the Fighting Illini steals a bid and comes in playing with house money. No one expects them to beat the Trojans, but this is a team that lost a 40-34 thriller to Missouri in their opener. Illinois was actually 6-1 against bowl teams plus a win over Northwestern (6-6). The Trojans closed the year playing five bowl opponents, going 4-1. They also beat three teams who finished 5-7. Their season was marred by a loss to Stanford when Josh Booty tossed 4 interceptions while playing hurt. USC’s only other loss was 24-17 at Oregon when Dixon was playing like a Heisman winner and Mark Sanchez was the Trojan quarterback. Quietly the Trojans are run by their defense which has allowed just 20 touchdowns. Teams average 2.4 yards per carry against them, the third lowest total in the nation. Illinois is also strong in run defense (3.3) meaning this could get interesting. Mendenhall has been mostly great for the Illini with seven game over 120 yards rushing. Ohio State contained him, but Mendenhall had 11 carries on two sustained drives that helped Illinois pull the upset. USC counters with explosive freshman Joe McKnight and experienced senior Chauncey Washington. They also have the top tight end in next year’s NFL draft in Fred Davis. Then there is the matter of Illinois quarterback Juice Williams who has five games with 90+ yards rushing. I just don’t see him exploiting a fast, athletic Trojan defense. This will be a snoozer, but probably not the rout most expect: USC 24, Illinois 13

Sugar Bowl: Hawaii (12-0) vs. Georgia (10-2): The Warriors have been given very little respect out of the WAC because of their weak schedule and rightfully so. Boise State was supposed to be their big win and the Broncos just lost their bowl game to 7-5 East Carolina out of Conference USA. The conference also took a big hit when high powered Nevada was shut out 23-0 in the New Mexico Bowl against the Lobos. Their only other notable win was 37-30 over Fresno State in a game that really wasn’t that close. They also had to rally from 21-0 down to beat Washington who finished last in the Pac-10. The Bulldogs played just a slightly tougher schedule in the conference we like to call the SEC. They were 6-1 against bowl teams plus wins over Vanderbilt (5-7) and Troy (8-4). Their last loss was almost three months ago at Tennessee (35-14) and ruined their shot at a national title. Hawaii has the more decorated offense, but over their last five games Georgia has scored 37.2 points while Hawaii has 37.8. The Warriors have scored 42+ eight times, but not since October 28. The Bulldogs have five games with that many including three since October 27. In other words, don’t worry about Georgia being able to keep up with the scoring. They can beat Hawaii at their own game if need be. Knowshon Moreno has had a great freshman season. During a five game stretch late in the year he averaged 26.2 carries for 153.2 yards while scoring 9 touchdowns. Colt Brennan is on the other side of his career trying to end on a high note after finishing third in the Heisman voting. In the 10 games he played extensively he averaged 415.3 yards passing. Only once did he fail to throw for at least 298 yards and he racked up six games with 4+ touchdown passes. Good luck against a Georgia defense that has given up 11 TD passes on the season. Everyone wants Hawaii to make a game of this and after Boise State’s upset of Oklahoma it seems like it should be possible. However, that Oklahoma team wasn’t this good and Hawaii doesn’t have the balance to pull it off: Georgia 35, Hawaii 22

Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (11-2): The Mountaineers are happy this game takes place in January because the month of December stunk pretty badly for them. It started with Pittsburgh kicking them out of the national title game and then head coach Rich Rodriguez abandoned them for Michigan. It overshadowed a season where they went 6-1 against bowl teams plus wins over Western Michigan (5-7) and Louisville (6-6). The Sooners also let the BCS title game slip away with a late loss at Texas Tech when Sam Bradford got hurt. They finished 6-2 against bowl teams and also beat Miami, FL (5-7). West Virginia quarterback Pat White is a question mark after being hurt in the finale. He has been on a tremendous roll with 156, 147, 155 and 186 rushing yards in his previous four games, averaging 304 total yards over that span. Even if healthy the Sooner defense will be hard on him. Then there is the matter of West Virginia’s stout run defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, just behind Oklahoma (2.8). If it comes down to passing the football Sam Bradford sure isn’t playing like a freshman. He has eight games with at least 3 touchdown passes and has thrown only 7 interceptions. He has taken just 9 sacks all season, three of which came against Iowa State. They should wear down the Mountaineers who eventually will fold without their leader: Oklahoma 26, West Virginia 18

Orange Bowl: Kansas (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2): The Jayhawks have been given very little respect despite their gaudy record because many felt since Missouri beat them the Tigers deserved the BCS bid with a higher ranking. They were 4-1 against bowl competition, but also defeated two 5-7 teams in Kansas State and Nebraska. Along the way they rolled up 43+ points eight times and held opponents to no more than 14 points eight times. The Hokies were out of the picture early after a 48-7 loss at LSU and it took them the whole season to recover. They blew a 10-0 lead against Boston College the first time around, but beat them 30-16 in the rematch for the ACC title. Their defense led the way with nine games holding teams to less than 17 points. The offense had their moments though, especially down the stretch. Nine times they scored 27+ points and averaged 34.8 while winning their final five. The teams combined to give up just 45 touchdowns and finished in the top 5 nationally for scoring defense, but Kansas has had more scoring experience with a 64-37 edge offensively. Their offense under Reesing is underrated. He threw 6 interceptions, five of which came in two games. This team was not ready for their big game against Missouri. Now they either learn from it or have another poor start. If it comes down to which team can score the football I like the weapons on Kansas. Branden Ore has only one game with 100+ yards rushing and their quarterbacks have 16 touchdown passes on the season. The Hokies will stay in it with defense, notably turnovers. Only five teams in the nation had more interceptions (21). If they don’t force Reesing into mistakes this could be a rout, but regardless I like the underappreciated Jayhawks: Kansas 21, Virginia Tech 17

International Bowl: Ball State (7-5) vs. Rutgers (7-5): After last year’s breakthrough season the Scarlet Knights must be disappointed to be finishing up the season in Toronto. The middle of their schedule was a disaster as they lost four of six. The only thing that saved their bowl game was a 30-27 win over then #2 South Florida during that swoon. The Scarlet Knights went 2-4 against bowl competition and actually shared two common opponents with Ball State. Both teams routed Buffalo. Rutgers beat Navy 41-24 while Ball State edged the Midshipmen 34-31. The Cardinals were only 1-3 against bowl teams having also beaten three MAC teams who finished 5-7. This could be the final game for Ray Rice who has run for over 1,700 yards in the past two seasons. When most backs tire, he has carried Rutgers with 158.6 yards over his final 7 games. He had seven games with at least 30 carries. Ball State is led by quarterback Nate Davis who averaged 307.7 yards passing in their last three games. Eight times he had at least 265 yards passing. Sadly for him, Rutgers has the #2 pass defense in the nation meaning this could be a serious rout. Ball State giving up 4.9 yards per rush pretty much guarantees it will be: Rutgers 41, Ball State 14

GMAC Bowl: Bowling Green (8-4) vs. Tulsa (9-4): The Falcons opened the year with what seemed like a big win at Minnesota. Then the Golden Gophers lost their next 11 games. They played only two bowl teams all year, losing at Michigan State (28-17) and Boston College (55-24) who ironically meet in the Champs Sports Bowl. This is a team that lost out on the MAC East division title because Miami, OH routed them 47-14. The only positive for Bowling Green was winning four of their last five and beating two teams who went 5-7 and Western Kentucky (7-5 as an independent). The Golden Hurricane come in after winning the Conference USA West although they lost again to UCF in the title game. They were 2-3 against bowl teams, but beat BYU and routed Houston 56-7 to earn those victories. Their issue is defense having allowed 56 touchdowns. Seven times they allowed 39+ points this season, but made up for it by scoring 35+ nine times. Quarterback Paul Smith tossed 42 touchdown passes this season, second only to Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell. He had at least 2 in every game. I don’t think the Falcons can keep up with them: Tulsa 42, Bowling Green 27

BCS Championship: LSU (11-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1): There has been plenty of controversy swirling around the selection of these two teams. Perhaps the biggest injustice is to the fans who expected to see two fresh teams fighting for a title in a season filled with upsets. Instead they get a pairing of teams who already have a crystal trophy in their case. The Buckeyes won it all in 2002 while the Tigers took home the next title in 2003. Even if Ohio State is in their third title game in six years everyone wants to harp on their flat showing last year when Florida blasted the Bucks 41-14.  This time they bring an even stronger defense after losing only two defensive linemen in last year’s NFL draft as opposed to six offensive players who filled their stat sheets. When those players left, new ones stepped in starting with Chris Wells who stepped out of Antonio Pittman’s shadow to rush for 1,463 yards. Boeckman had a solid year at quarterback as eight of his twelve interceptions came in three games. LSU will certainly study the Illinois tape to see what rattled him. What bothered people about Ohio State was a weak schedule and even though they went 5-1 against bowl teams, all of that came within a down Big Ten conference. LSU was 6-2 against bowl competition, but as we’ve been reminded a million times both losses came in triple overtime. I’m not sure that impresses me because it showed their defense can be beaten repetitively as they were by Kentucky and Arkansas, two teams who finished 12-8 against outside competition. The Tigers scored 59 touchdowns and they should wear down Ohio State’s defense. Very quietly this is a meeting of the #1 defense in yards per game (Ohio State) against the #3 (LSU). The Buckeyes have by far the nation’s best pass defense and allow just 2.5 yards per carry, fourth best in the country. With a defense like that it is hard to expect another 41-14 outcome. Also, LSU has beaten only one BCS team by more than 7 points since September 22. That was Mississippi who went 0-8 in the SEC. I still like the Tigers, just not as much as everyone else: LSU 20, Ohio State 13