College Football Predictions - Week 8
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/23/09


I have a lot of fun picking college football games. Of course, it is easier to talk about fun after going 14-1 as I did last week. My season marked has pushed towards respectability at 58-31 (65%) and as usual I stick mostly to winning teams against winning teams. At this point in the season sometimes I will dip to .500 teams on one end, and this week there are almost two dozen games featuring a pair of 3-3 squads. I am not going to do them all because, well, I still have to do a full slate of NFL games. One last bit of housekeeping on week 7’s upset picks. Colorado beat Kansas straight up so that was sweet. Colorado State hung tough with TCU for the first half, trailing 17-6 into the break. After that, uh, not so much so let’s call that sour. The tiebreaker was Florida International barely covering against Troy and I’ll take it.

Connecticut (4-2) @ West Virginia (5-1): The loss of life trumps anything I can say in this space about football. Needless to say the Huskies will be playing with heavy hearts after one of their own was killed while celebrating a victory last weekend. It really stops my preview cold. Emotion is on their side, and if this game was played in East Hartford I would pick UConn no questions asked. The Mountaineers have their share of distractions to deal with as well. Uneven quarterback Jarrett Brown is recovering from a concussion and defensive tackle Scooter Berry was kicked off the team. Which team can focus on the task at hand? The difference for me is the West Virginia defense. They can stuff the run, and hold passers to just over 50% completions to keep the team in it. Noel Devine needs to break one or two big plays either straight rushing or on a screen pass. In a tight, defensive struggle that’s all it takes: West Virginia 19, Connecticut 13

South Florida (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (6-1): For the past two years this game was all about Matt Grothe at quarterback for the Bulls and LeSean McCoy at running back for the Panthers. Grothe, who was contained by Pitt’s defense in both games, suffered a season ending injury. McCoy, who ran over USF last year in a win and scored 5 touchdowns in the two meetings, can be seen on Monday Night Football. The reason I point this out yet again is that both teams might be better off or at least not worse off. B.J. Daniels is going through some growing pains, but I love this kid’s fire. A teammate tried to console him with a pat on the shoulder after an interception during the team’s first loss last week. Daniels pushed the player’s arm off him in disgust. He wants to win and that’s what you look for in a leader at the quarterback position. In this game he is in over his head, and it comes back to McCoy’s replacement. Freshman Dion Lewis has carried a huge load the past two games that belies his small frame. How does 55 carries for 338 yards strike you? He helps Pitt stay in the lead and the defense harasses Daniels enough to force the game clinching turnover: Pittsburgh 27, South Florida 16

Indiana (4-3) @ Northwestern (4-3): The Big Ten in 2009 is shaping up to look a lot like the ACC in 2008. Already 9 of 11 teams have a 4-3 record or better as teams start focusing on getting bowl eligible with a sixth win. The loser of this game is going to be more concerned about their season going in the tank. There is a lot of pressure on the Wildcats who face Penn State next week, then travel to Iowa. Even if they can win at cellar dwelling Illinois it is looking like a season ending win over Wisconsin, currently a 5-2 team, will be needed to earn a bowl bid. On the other side let’s face it the Hoosiers would throw a parade if they qualified for a bowl. Unfortunately, any hope of that probably went up in smoke during a controversial loss at Michigan last month. They also face Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State with only the Badgers at home plus a visit from rival Purdue. Finishing 4-8 is not only possible, it is likely. Everyone wants to root for an underdog, but it’s over for IU: Northwestern 34, Indiana 23

Minnesota (4-3) @ Ohio State (5-2): I would not want to be the Golden Gophers. They are coming off an effort in which Penn State put down a blueprint for how to shut down (and out) their offense. The Buckeyes have the athletes to repeat that effort. More importantly, Ohio State is angry after their shocking upset loss at Purdue. There is too much pressure on Pryor to do it all and he has not been up to the task when it matters most. They probably would have lost to Wisconsin if not for three return touchdowns, and nearly let Navy put them into overtime. This is THE Ohio State University right? You can bet their players will be out to prove it still is in this game. Standout wide receiver Eric Decker will be happy to see Ohio State without cornerbacks Washington and Jenkins, both now in the NFL. However, he is not going to make a huge impact this week either: Ohio State 27, Minnesota 9

Georgia Tech (6-1) @ Virginia (3-3): The Cavs truly treated their non-conference schedule like they were exhibitions. Does it really matter now that William & Mary stunned this team 26-14 in the opener? Perhaps to their alumni, but not in the ACC race. Whatever they did during their open week, the final weekend of September, it has worked. They won road games over North Carolina and Maryland a combined 36-12. In between came a beat down of Indiana 47-7. Who are these guys? I’ll tell you who we know – the Yellow Jackets. On paper this might look like them going on the road against a first place team trying to regain control of the Coastal division. In reality, Georgia Tech is the team to beat after knocking off the two-time defending ACC champion Virginia Tech last week. I would say this is a potential trap, but they were stung by the Cavs in 2008 which ultimately kept them out of playing for the conference title. Fatigue is the only factor going against them. Two road games preceded last week’s battle with the Hokies, and for that reason I’m calling it close: Georgia Tech 23, Virginia 17

Penn State (6-1) @ Michigan (5-2): Having the Wolverines back to respectability is good for the tradition of college football. The Nittany Lions would rather forget about tradition, and history. They joined the Big Ten with a lot of hype, but have claimed only 3 conference titles. Their only wins at the Big House came in 1994 and 1996, their first two visits. Some teams just have the mental edge and it certainly is the case here. Even with far superior talent last year, playing in Happy Valley, it took PSU until the second half to put an end to a streak of 9 consecutive losses to the Maize & Blue. The young Michigan quarterbacks are going to be challenged by this defense. For all their big plays, Forcier and Robinson also have combined for 7 interceptions. Of course, so does Clark. His advantage will be leaning on Royster running the ball and likely playing with a lead. It is bound to be a thriller because of the history, but defense makes the difference for the visitors: Penn State 26, Michigan 20

Boston College (5-2) @ Notre Dame (4-2): Whatever has gotten into the Eagles on the road this season, can they figure it out in this one? After all, it would be lucky #7 win in a row against the, uh, Irish right? BC has been totally inept offensively on the road though while losing convincingly to Clemson and Virginia Tech. One thing about Notre Dame is that if you are going to beat them scoring a lot of points is a must. Even last week when it looked like USC would rout the Irish again Clausen rallied them within one play of forcing OT. Their scoring average is 31.7 on the season. Against BCS opponents Boston College has topped 28 just once, last week’s 52-20 thrashing of N.C. State. This is almost a break of sorts for them as they step outside of conference play next week (vs. Central Michigan) as well. During that time they should retain the Atlantic division lead. I know they want to beat their rivals here, but I’m not seeing the urgency. Notre Dame on the other hand still has BCS aspirations. Other than next week’s lightweight Washington State, all of the teams on their schedule are at least just good enough to beat them. They’re also not very daunting other than perhaps Pittsburgh, on the road. Focus is on their side and I see an easy win for a team that has lived on the edge since a season opening rout of Nevada: Notre Dame 31, Boston College 13

Air Force (4-3) @ Utah (5-1): Up until now the Falcons have been just good enough to wreak havoc on teams likely to end their season in a bowl game. They have lost to Minnesota, Navy and TCU by a combined 13 points. I consider them to be a dangerous opponent for the Utes who are known for cutting it close. The option offense of Air Force combined with Utah relying on their own run heavy offense should make for a game with very few possessions. Returning home after playing four of five on the road will be a boost for Utah, but is the team worn out? Meanwhile Air Force has been home for three of their last four games. I am looking for a low scoring game and until I see otherwise on the field I expect the defending MWC champs to keep rolling: Utah 21, Air Force 10

Toledo (4-3) @ Temple (4-2): Seriously, how often do I get the chance to talk about either of these teams? The Rockets are best known for destroying Colorado 54-38 on national television, only to get skunked 38-0 by Ohio State eight days later. One thing you can expect in their games is a lot of points. Already four times they have scored 31+ and their defense finally held a team below 30 points last week, a 20-19 win over Northern Illinois. On the other side the Owls are doing it on the defensive side. After starting 0-2, the defense has not given up 20 points in four straight wins. Offensively consistency has been the key. Other than a 31-6 loss at Penn State and 37-13 whipping of Buffalo they have scored either 24 or 27 points. I call that steady. A win here would be tremendous considering Akron and Miami, OH are left on the schedule with a combined 1-12 record. I don’t think anyone imagined this team winning 7 games. They might have to settle for 6 because there is too much offense for them here: Toledo 30, Temple 20

Iowa (7-0) @ Michigan State (4-3): Now that the Hawkeyes have stepped into the spotlight in the Big Ten it seems like everyone wants to drag them down. Instead of discussing them as a legitimate BCS title game contender the focus still seems to be on Ohio State underachieving, Michigan’s resurgence and Penn State’s senior citizen head coach. Where is the love for this team? I know, I know. They probably should have lost the opener to Northern Iowa, and cut it too close against Arkansas State. So what? They won. Last week at Wisconsin, faced with a 10-0 deficit guess what happened? Yep, they scored 20 unanswered and won again. This week I look for more of the same. The Spartans are a tease. They always seem to be given credit for being better than they are. Certainly with a few plays going their way MSU could be 7-0. They could also have a losing record. East Lansing has been tough on Iowa of late, and the night game adds pressure to the equation. In the messed up BCS system there are people out there rooting against them finishing undefeated and sliding into the title game. It’s one more reason to hate the BCS. They survive this road test: Iowa 24, Michigan State 19

TCU (6-0) @ BYU (6-1): Even after the Cougars stunned Oklahoma early in the season I still considered the Horned Frogs the class of the Mountain West. Now they have a chance to prove it. Ranked #7 by the coaches and #8 in the BCS it is almost weird to say this, but TCU has been totally overlooked this season. Voters seem to reluctantly move them up simply because they win. Their key wins over “Big Six” opponents came against Virginia and Clemson who are hardly national powers. BYU lined up against two teams who do fit that bill, beating the Sooners and getting blown away at home by Florida State. One thing is certain. The winner of this game will earn a lot of national respect and gets a leg up towards winning the MWC title. Which quarterback will get their team the huge win? Max Hall has multiple touchdown passes in every game, but threw 10 interceptions the first five games before two clean road outings against UNLV and San Diego State. He already has five 300+ yard passing games. Andy Dalton is much less impressive on the stat sheet, but has gone 18-2 since losing in his last visit to BYU on November 8, 2007. In his past 17 starts Dalton has passed for over 230 yards just three times, all late last season. TCU relies on him not to turn the ball over or take a lot of sacks. He has only been sacked 37 times in 30 career games, and has just 8 interceptions since the start of 2008. Revenge is on the mind of the Cougars after getting stomped 32-7 last year. It pains me to admit this, but they might be a little better than I expected when the season began and the Horned Frogs appear to not be as good. It should be a good one. I like BYU’s discipline. I also like TCU’s toughness and swagger when they get a lead. I’ll stick to my guns: TCU 27, BYU 23

Auburn (5-2) @ LSU (5-1): The air has been sucked out of Auburn’s confidence balloon in a hurry and if there is anything left it will be removed this week. Their high powered offense carried them early in the season, but after averaging 45.3 points in September their October average dipped to an even 21. Some of that has to do with playing SEC opponents of course. Speaking of lost confidence, LSU had an open week to recover from their 13-3 loss to Florida. Now it’s time to start another winning streak at Death Valley in night games. Their defense will remove any doubt early on. The offense will lean on the running game dominating a weak Auburn front. That’s all there is to it really: LSU 24, Auburn 10

Texas (6-0) @ Missouri (4-2): A few weeks ago this was looking like a potential Big XII title game preview. The Tigers fell apart in the fourth quarter against Nebraska though, and after losing at Oklahoma State last week need to score this huge upset and get some breaks to defend their North title. The Longhorns are simply fighting overconfidence at this point. Their joke of a non-conference schedule left them basically untested heading into last week’s game against rival Oklahoma. The result was an unsettling 16-13 win. Sure, it was the Sooners, but not the Sam Bradford version. Offensively they put up barely one-third of their scoring average heading into the game. It is hard to pinpoint the reason, but Texas seems like a pretender in the BCS title picture more and more. I keep waiting for them to blow a game, but again the soft schedule has made that unlikely thus far. Under the lights in hostile territory for their first significant game outside the state of Texas (do we really count going to Wyoming?) seems to bring the scent of upset into the air. However, whether he wants to think so or not Missouri starting quarterback Gabbert is not quite right. Beating Texas will require a perfect record and the Tigers are not up to it: Texas 34, Missouri 20

Oregon State (4-2) @ USC (5-1): The Trojans only struggle against the Oregon schools on the road, so forget about any upset potential here. The Beavers did give them the business behind the exploits of Jacquizz Rodgers last year, derailing USC’s BCS title game hopes in the process. Their offense is all about “Quizz” at running back and his brother James at wide receiver. In last year’s upset everything went right for them in the first half and they held on for dear life. This time USC knows what to expect. Their defense might have lost a ton of talent to the NFL, but as expected they reloaded. Other than a shoddy finishing job last week at Notre Dame no one has touched them. I’m expecting Oregon State to hope for a short game with limited possessions. They can do enough on defense to keep this one close for a while. Eventually the depth is going to play a factor and the Trojans will open up a can on them: USC 33, Oregon State 15

Arizona State (4-2) @ Stanford (4-3): I have been saying for a while now that the Pac-10 has just one “easy” mark in the form of Washington State. The Sun Devils are proving that point. Georgia might not be up this season, but it was eye opening for ASU to play them hard for 60 minutes before falling 20-17 between the hedges. They are not as far into their conference play as Stanford though, and need to back up last week’s thrilling 24-17 win over Washington. Stanford has seen their Pac-10 lead slip away on the road, losing high scoring tilts at Oregon State and Arizona. They are thrilled to be back on the farm where they are 3-0. The bad news is that after this game their November schedule is a killer. Oregon, California and Notre Dame come to them sandwiched around a trip to USC. Even a win over ASU here would by no means guarantee them bowl eligibility. The key is going to be running against a team allowing just 57.8 yards per game, second in the nation. I think Toby Gerhart will be up to the task. He’s not running wild, but it’s tough to bet against this guy. The Sun Devils have their own Gerhart brother, Toby, on the offensive line. If the run defense has problems maybe he can sub in. Okay, maybe not. Either way, after getting outscored 81-66 in two road games we are going to see a much lower scoring and quite frankly boring outcome here for the home team: Stanford 27, Arizona State 17

Upset alert: Teams favored by more than a touchdown who I expect not to cover, and potentially lose.

Central Michigan (6-1) @ Bowling Green (3-4): I stick up for the Chippewas quite a bit, but the Falcons could potentially give them fits here despite being almost a double digit underdog. Their passing offense can keep them in the game and since MAC play began Bowling Green has scored 37, 36 and 31 points. Central Michigan is led by an NFL prospect Dan LeFevour at quarterback, but struggled mightily in an earlier road game before downing Buffalo 20-13. They were also stuffed at Arizona 19-6. By contrast they have put up 48, 48 and 56 points at home. Look for them to squeeze this one out by 3-7 points.

Oregon (5-1) @ Washington (3-4): It’s almost as if the season opener never happened for the Ducks. They are on a serious roll and might have Masoli in the fold at quarterback this week. Here’s the thing. Washington will have Locker playing quarterback for them. He gives them a fighting chance against just about anyone. The road has not been kind to UW, but at home they have knocked off otherwise 6-0 Idaho, #4 ranked USC and computer ranking darling Arizona. Their only loss was the opener against national power LSU. If the Ducks show any early weakness on offense this is going to be a struggle to the finish. I’m looking for a third close loss this month for Washington, but enough to cover the 10.

Florida (6-0) @ Mississippi State (3-4): On the surface it seems like the Gators should shake off last week’s 23-20 escape against Arkansas and roll against a bottom shelf SEC opponent. However, there are factors working against them. Three starters from their defensive front seven could be missing including linebacker Brandon Spikes who is their “Tebow” on that side of the ball. On offense, where Florida has been pretty flat, ex-offensive coordinator Dan Mullen calls the shots for the Bulldogs as their new head coach. He can dissect Tebow and put his players in position to slow the superstar down. This is unlikely to be the kind of upset that has Tebow making speeches, but I’m not expecting the Gators to win by 23 either. I could see them winning 30-13 and being locked in a struggle much of the way. Mississippi State has played a pretty tough schedule and hung tough in losses to current top 20 teams LSU, Georgia Tech and Houston losing by an average score of 34-27.