College Football Predictions - Week 9
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/29/09

Holy Toledo! As in, I can’t believe the Toledo Rockets ruined my shot at a perfect week picking games pairing up teams with winning records. Why didn’t I just ignore their game against Temple, claiming later it was an oversight? Like say, the fact that I mistakenly failed to pick a winner in the Navy-Wake Forest game. For the record, the last part is true. Anyway, I was 14-1 and now stand 72-32 overall (69%). My upset picks were a downer though. Central Michigan did hold just a 17-10 lead at Bowling Green well into the fourth quarter, and struggled offensively on the road as I predicted. However, it was a bottom line loss because with 4:58 to play they iced it with a touchdown to cover the points. As for Oregon at Washington, let’s just pretend I never said anything about it. The only bright spot was Mississippi State causing problems for Florida despite being an underdog by over 3 touchdowns. I estimated a 30-13 final, which if not for the second Tebow “pick six” would have been off by a point from the 29-19 actual score.

North Carolina (4-3) @ Virginia Tech (5-2): I bought into the hype prior to the season where the Tar Heels are concerned. For some unknown reason I looked past the fact that all of their impact receivers were gone. The weight of carrying an offense without much help has led quarterback T.J. Yates to 8 interceptions already after throwing just 7 all of last season. Their defense can get the job done as long as the opponent is inept. Georgia Tech and FloridaState hit them up for a combined 54 points. The rest of their opponents have put up a total of 57. It could be another defensive struggle with the Hokies like the meeting in 2008, won by Virginia Tech 20-17. We all know how unpredictable games can be during the week when one opponent is highly ranked and the other is hovering around a .500 record. Usually those upset victims are on the road. Even if their ACC Coastal division title hopes now hinge on Georgia Tech stumbling, they will stand tall for the national audience to see: Virginia Tech 27, North Carolina 13

West Virginia (6-1) @ South Florida (5-2): When B.J. Daniels took over for injured senior quarterback Matt Grothe it seemed a foregone conclusion that the Bulls would fall back in the standings. Two wins later no one noticed Grothe was gone. Two losses since then, the wheels are coming off. Even though he has thrown 4 interceptions and taken 6 sacks during those defeats it is not all on the shoulders of Daniels. USF has given up 75 points to the truly Big East elite Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Now here comes a Mountaineer team trying to earn that same status. Even with a 2-0 conference record and national ranking West Virginia has a lot to prove. They have scraped along with big plays from running back Noel Devine and just enough defensive stops. At this point in the season teams with home loaded early schedules have to adjust to playing on the road where their usual formula can fail miserably. The Bulls are home for just the second time since September 19 and will be fired up for redemption with the national audience watching. I still think they are too worn down and I’m riding the cardiac “Devines” until they falter: West Virginia 23, South Florida 20

Rutgers (5-2) @ Connecticut (4-3): Last week's game at West Virginia was emotional for the Huskies. Their first home game after the tragic loss of a teammate will amplify the feelings. I'm not sure this team couldn't hang with the Patriots for a few minutes under these circumstances. I hate to simplify it so much, but these teams are pretty even anyway. The Scarlet Knights have banged around a lot of bad teams this season. They hung tough at home against Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago which was by far their most impressive effort. Connecticut also lost a close game to the Panthers earlier this month, but it came on the road. Narrow losses to North Carolina and last week at West Virginia have kept them under the radar. A win here is vital to their bowl hopes because next up they visit Cincinnati and Notre Dame: Connecticut 28, Rutgers 20

Mississippi (5-2) @ Auburn (5-3): Simply put these teams are heading in different directions. An unexpected offensive onslaught helped the Tigers storm out to a 5-0 start including a pair of SEC wins. A combination of stiffer competition and being able to scout their tendencies has contributed to just 47 points scored during their current 0-3 slide. If not for facing Furman next week Auburn might be staring at another losing season with Georgia (road) and the Iron Bowl against Alabama also left. Ole Miss is catching their stride. Last week's showdown of NFL prospect quarterbacks was all Snead in their 30-17 win over Arkansas. It was by far the biggest win of the season, and the schedule doesn't stiffen the rest of the way other than LSU. After this, rival Mississippi State in the season finale is their only road game. Expect them to be brimming with confidence, especially on defense where they turn the tide: Missississippi 30, Auburn 14

Southern Miss (5-3) @ Houston (6-1): Playing in Conference USA the Cougars are not going to face quality competition the rest of the way comparable to the teams playing in BCS conferences. This is almost as good as it gets, but bear in mind the Golden Eagles took down Virginia and lost a 35-28 decision at Kansas earlier in the season. Collectively these teams are 4-2 against BCS opposition with Houston doing most of that damage. Southern Miss has been close in all of their road games despite going 0-3. Houston is pleased to be playing at home for just the fourth time this season. Since their mind blowing 58-41 loss at UTEP the defense has tightened up to allow 55 points total during three straight wins. We know they can score with Keenum leading the offense. I don't think the visitors can slow them down or keep up: Houston 45, Southern Miss 21

Temple (5-2) @ Navy (6-2): In the past two weeks I have talked more about the Owls than the rest of my life combined. They ruined my perfect prediction slate by crushing Toledo 40-24 on the road. Now they are trying to down another service academy. It's the best one though, by far. The Midshipmen have proven they can compete with quality opponents. This will be a challenge for them against a solid run defense. It feels like another another slug it out, low scoring affair. I'm picking against the Owls again, but they have a great chance at winning the MAC East and will continue to be a great story. The Midshipmen are the best team no one pays attention to: Navy 19, Temple 14

Kansas (5-2) @ Texas Tech (5-3): The rubber really meets the road for these two teams here. Just as everyone was starting to believe in the Red Raiders suddenly Texas A&M comes into their stadium and puts a 52-30 whipping on them. Any razor thin shot at winning the South division went out the window with that setback and with the Oklahoma schools on deck after a bye week Texas Tech needs a win. The Jayhawks conversely were never really respected even while starting 5-0. When Colorado beat them and Oklahoma followed it up with a 35-13 smacking last week it was what everyone expected. Even in a weaker North division still completely up for grabs it is going to be tough for Kansas to make a move. They visit suddenly surging Kansas State next, and a couple weeks go to Texas. In alternating weeks they host Nebraska and close with Missouri at Kansas City. This is going to get ugly fast. Their defense is awful. Texas Tech can actually play some defense at time. Get your calculators ready. I love the Jayhawk stars, but they're not enough in a thriller: Texas Tech 49, Kansas 45

Iowa State (5-3) @ Texas A&M (4-3): I had to blink my eyes when I saw this on the schedule. Both of these teams have winning records? The Cyclones are on the brink of bowl eligibility after a gritty 9-7 win at Nebraska last week. Looking back, if not for close losses to the Kansas schools by a total of 5 points they could be leading the North division. Their other loss was a spanking at the hands of Iowa. The Aggies are in a more vulernable position despite also scoring a huge road upset last week over Texas Tech. They still have to deal with a trip to Oklahoma and visit from rival Texas, which means their best path to a bowl is getting this one then hoping to win at Colorado next week or against Baylor down the line. I don't know what got into Iowa State last week, but overall they have been vulnerable on defense. Texas A&M is even worse. In a game between clearly unpredictable teams who have been gouged for bunches of rushing yards I will go on a bit of a limb taking the upset based on superior rushing offense: Iowa State 27, Texas A&M 24

California (5-2) @ Arizona State (4-3): The pick here is rather simple. As soon as the Bears start to show signs of being an elite team again they annually drop a game like this against a team they "should" win. The Sun Devils present a huge issue to their hot and cold offense because run defense is a team strength. When the game is on the shoulders of quarterback Kevin Riley get your heartburn medicine ready Cal fans. He has inferior targets at his disposal and is horribly inaccurate. Did I mention Arizona State picks off a ton of passes? If Cal is unable to move the ball consistently they are in trouble. It seems like once that happens the team goes into a shell. Arizona State is a lot better than most people think. Starting with their tough 20-17 loss at Georgia they have mostly hung tough with good teams this season. I think last week's 33-14 wipeout at Stanford was the product of being worn out and taking on a tough, bruising running back. Cal's backfield is all speed. They are either going to break big runs and win the game by 10 or put the game on Riley's arm and lose it by 14. I'll split the difference in an upset I'm pretty confident in: Arizona State 27, California 23

Central Michigan (7-1) @ Boston College (5-3): The Eagles are 5-0 at home where overall they have been dramatically better. The Chippewas are an experienced, and successful road team at 4-1. They already took out on BCS team in September, surprising Michigan State 29-27. Hats off to them for scheduling three "Big Six" opponents, all on the road. Even if they don't get this one clearly we are looking at the best team in the MAC and one capable of finishing 11-2 after the conference championship game. Dan LeFevour will be the best quarterback on the field as he is in most games, but against a big time defense keying on him I don't like his odds of doing his thing. That thing is completing a high percentage of passes, mixing in plenty of rushing and leading a victory. Even as familiar as this team is to playing away from home this will be their third road game in as many weeks. The Eagles have a bye next week and coupled with the Chips sporting a 7-1 record removes a lot of the "trap" factor. They should be firmly focused on their opponent and get it done: Boston College 21, Central Michigan 16

Georgia (4-3) vs. Florida (7-0): As always this game will be played in Jacksonville. It is somewhat ridiculous to suggest the Gators need a "statement" victory considering their resume, but expect them to deliver one here. Bad blood makes it a little bit easier for them to open up a can on the inconsistent Bulldogs. Florida's defense gets healthier this week and while their offense scares no one as long as Tebow is leading in they will be fine. Georgia plays a third game in a row away from their home field, but some of the fatigue factor is removed coming off a bye week. Do we expect the team that had LSU beaten to open October or the one that was hammered at Tennessee the following week? History tells us the 'Dawgs always bite against lesser teams and bark against the big boys. We all know which way this goes: Florida 31, Georgia 10

Penn State (7-1) @ Northwestern (5-3): At the risk of sounding like I'm getting cute the Wildcats have clawed their way to a winning record. If not for two huge rallies, at Purdue and last week against Indiana, this team is 3-5 and winless in Big Ten play. The wheels are about to come off. If you need evidence just consider their ugly 16-6 win over Miami, OH who is sitting at 0-8. Last year the offense kept them alive with Tyrell Sutton rushing the football and Kafka as a dual threat quarterback. This year he has a dismal 2.0 average rush yet is leading the team with 206 yards. I'm fairly certain the Nittany Lions can shut down their offense completely. Penn State goes about their business in games like this. Their offense will be under no pressure whatsoever because they are going to be handed the football in great position every drive: Penn State 33, Northwestern 6

Louisiana-Monroe (4-3) @ Troy (5-2): Not only is this game a meeting of teams with a winning record it could decide the Sun Belt title. Middle Tennessee might have something to say about that if the Trojans, who beat them 31-7, falter here. I don't think they will. Troy has really owned this conference since 2006 going 22-3 including this season. They are the bully and will be confident playing at home. Their offense can do damage with so many different players. Five different players have 19+ rushes and eight different guys have 11+ receptions. Their quarterback is more accurate and will direct an easy win: Troy 27, Louisiana Monroe 17

Kansas State (5-3) @ Oklahoma (4-3): No one in their right mind would have said back in August that when these teams met the Wildcats would be the ones competing for a Big XII division title. Here they are though, leading the North and controlling their own destiny even with a loss here. I said August. I could have said September 12 when Louisiana-Lafayette embarrassed them 17-15. At that point most people wrote this team off in Snyder's return effort. As the season has worn on though, here they are. Unfortunately reality will set in when they wake up in Norman. For all the struggles the Sooners have gone through this season including three disappointing losses by a total of 5 points they have far superior athletes. They showed it last week at Kansas by blasting the Jayhawks 35-13. In three previous home games Oklahoma has won by a total of 144-7 which is reminiscent of their 2008 campaign. I see no reason to believe they hold down the score here once they pounce early: Oklahoma 34, Kansas State 9

Wyoming (4-3) @ Utah (6-1): The Utes get beaten up nationally for playing a weak Mountain West Conference schedule. So even when facing a team with a winning record voters scoff. Because of the funky BCS system it is not enough to just win MWC games. They need to match Big XII teams Texas and Colorado who beat the Cowboys 41-10 and 24-0 respectively. The odds are stacked against them because routing opponents is not their game. All they have done though is win 95% of their games played since the 2008 season started. The offense has survived the loss of Brian Johnson, a steady presence at quarterback, thanks to his dual threat repacement Terrance Cain and steady rushing yardage from Eddie Wide who has 100+ yards in four games since taking the bulk of the work. He is going to be too much for the Wyoming defense. In the final analysis this is going to be another uneventful win: Utah 30, Wyoming 15 

USC (6-1) @ Oregon (6-1): I hear this is a pretty big one in the Pac-10. With all due respect to the delusional people who think Arizona can do some damage in this race you can call this the conference championship game even with a month of football to play. The Ducks have overcoming an opening loss that was more than a loss to play impressive football in their past five wins. Even if only the first two of those opponents, Utah and California, were formidable Oregon has started to make winning look like a foregone conclusion. Even the Trojans might be jealous of that after the past two weeks when they allowed Notre Dame and Oregon State back into the game while allowing 27 and 36 points respectively. Giving up so much scoring is not a good sign heading into a road game in Oregon where they have not won in years. For as much attention the offense has gotten the Ducks have really done it on defense in their four Pac-10 wins, giving up a total of 38 points. To me both sides of the ball favor Oregon. Sooner or later someone is going to break through and with the Autzen crowd rocking they pull out a classic against the odds: Oregon 26, USC 23

Texas (7-0) @ Oklahoma State (6-1): This was supposed to be considered one of a few significant hurdles for the Longhorns en route to the BCS title game. As it turns out, they get a Cowboys team probably overrated in the polls and without their best player now that wide receiver Dez Bryant's season is over. They also have a mental edge on OSU having won the past 11 in the series despite habitually falling behind big. I'm sure the Cowboys will be up for this game in primetime thinking upset. Their pass defense is not up to the task against Colt McCoy. It is one thing to dispatch teams like Missouri and Baylor, but quite another to deal with the nation's elite. Texas has been living a charmed life this season having played a soft non-conference slate while watching rival Oklahoma lose star quarterback Sam Bradford early in their meeting. If this winds up being their biggest win do they deserve a BCS title game appearance over an undefeated Iowa or Cincinnati team? I'm not sure, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. If they do this is going to be a loss: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 27

Upset Alert: I have already gone with three straight up upsets above, so this section will be geared more towards teams getting more than they want from heavy underdogs.

Indiana (4-4) @ Iowa (8-0): The Hoosiers are in over their heads in this game, but the Hawkeyes have lived on the edge all season. Four of their wins are by a total of 8 points and only once have they won by more than 11. Losing their leading rusher Adam Robinson is not a good way to cover 17 points. Indiana is deflated after blowing a 28-3 lead at Northwestern last week, but tested Michigan on the road earlier this season and seems capable of keeping it relatively interesting.

N.C. State (3-4) @ Florida State (3-4): The Wolfpack have been atrocious on defense the past 4 games allowing 30+ points in each outing and 40.5 on average. Why then would I suggest they can hang within 10 points of the 'Noles on the road? It's the ACC that's why. The new acronym for this conference should be ACH as in "anything can happen". FSU is just 1-3 at home this season and the lone win was a struggle over FCS member Jacksonville State. Both teams are going to be desperate because time is running out on gaining bowl eligibility. It will be close.

Western Kentucky (0-7) @ North Texas (1-6): Sure, the Hilltoppers have struggled in their first season as a full fledged member of the FBS. Last week MTSU hung 62 on them, but aside from that loss and their opening waxing at Tennessee they have at least been in the ballpark. Being a whisker shy of a two touchdown 'dog against a team whose only win came against Ball State, a team that was winless until last week, seems a tad high. Who can say which team wins in a battle for last place in the worst FBS conference, but it shouldn't be a rout.