College Football Predictions - Week 10
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/7/09


What hurts more, the foot I busted up or thinking about my horrific picks last week? I will say the picks because eventually my foot will heal. Assessing the wreckage, I gambled in many of the wrong places and took a couple of close games on the chin. The result was a 10-7 showing, dropping my season mark to 82-39. The upset picks were technically a loser, only one (N.C. State against Florida State) covered the points, but looking deeper it was not a total loss. Do I not get credit for saying Indiana had upset on their minds against Iowa? On the road no less! When they were up 24-14 into the fourth quarter I was feeling downright psychic. Since I don’t gamble (and you shouldn’t either) I’m not so worried about them failing to cover the 17 ½ after a wild 28-0 Hawkeye run. My other, albeit crazy, upset was winless Western Kentucky at North Texas. The Hilltoppers went into the fourth quarter tied 49-49 before giving up the final 19 points of the game as basically a two touchdown underdog. Again, this is why I don’t bet.

Central Florida (5-3) @ Texas (8-0): This qualifies as a “quality” non-conference game for the Longhorns. Yes I am serious. Their previous three OOC games were against teams who are 4-4, 4-4 and 3-5 playing in non-BCS conferences. The mighty Knights opened their season beating Samford 28-24. By the way Samford is currently seventh in something called the Southern conference. Since then I suppose they have improved, and are no strangers to success in recent seasons. However, mild success and crappy bowl games are much different than “quality opponent”. But, Texas finds a way to impress clueless voters by clocking teams like this by scores like this: Texas 49, UCF 10

Northwestern (5-4) @ Iowa (9-0): It seems this season the Hawkeyes have taken the mantle from Penn State in 2008 and Ohio State before that as this year’s Big Ten team to root against going undefeated. The general misconception is that sweeping through this conference is not enough to warrant a bid in the BCS title game. I have already ranted on this subject so I will simply say here I disagree, and yes I watched most of the Indiana debacle. Their sluggish performance was foreseeable after losing their leading rusher. The windy conditions made their already erratic quarterback look like he had just won some sort of contest to be the team’s quarterback for a day. Stanzi eventually recovered with the wind at his back. It was a crucial game to get behind them on their magical ride towards 12-0. Not to be disparaging, but they are not good enough to look past any team on the schedule. We have known this since their double blocked field goal opener at home against Northern Iowa. The Wildcats made it difficult on Penn State into the fourth quarter and only two long touchdowns made the final score so convincing. Between these teams 14 of 19 games have been decided by no more than 11 points one way or the other. That number feels right here: Iowa 24, Northwestern 13

Oklahoma (5-3) @ Nebraska (5-3): Wait, these teams have the same record? Apparently they do, and both have been inconsistent. The Sooners get the Bradford excuse, which hopefully is behind them now. Landry Jones is 5% less accurate than last year’s Heisman winner, and is just about 100 yards per game off the blistering pace. I have actually heard some writers (who surprisingly draw paychecks) suggest Jones is “Bradford-esque”. I won’t embarrass this moron by dropping a name. Obviously this offense is less potent without him at the controls. Some of it has to do with weapons and the offensive line, but this offense is mortal again. Enter the Cornhuskers who, with Mr. Suh, can bring some heat defensively. The only team to top 16 points on them this season was high octane Texas Tech. It is their own offensive ineptitude that has kept them from being 7-1 or even 8-0 at this point having scored a total of 32 points in their three losses. I look for them to be emotional at home against a traditional rival and for the Sooners to possibly show some of the weakness they did in a road loss to Miami and neutral field losses to BYU and Texas. OU tends to play tight when the going gets tough. I feel as though the team turned a bit of a corner smoking both Kansas schools the past two weeks and will squeeze this one out: Oklahoma 24, Nebraska 16

Kansas (5-3) @ Kansas State (5-4): Wow. Who figured a few weeks ago the Jayhawks would be in the North cellar with the Wildcats sitting in the lead? There is no telling what team will be served up to Texas in the Big XII title game, but Kansas will be eliminated if they lose this one. Their defense has failed them throughout the season and when the offense faltered the past three games (21.3 point average) all of them turned into losses. Kansas State has been a tough team to figure out. They were left for dead after losing 66-14 at Texas Tech, but a week later destroyed Texas A&M 62-14. Neither team can stop the pass. That being the case I’m going with Reesing and friends: Kansas 38, Kansas State 30

Oklahoma State (6-2) @ Iowa State (5-4): It’s official. Dez Bryant will not suit up for the Cowboys again. Well, unless it is the Dallas Cowboys as a pro. His appeal has been denied and he has entered the 2010 NFL draft. Having just been creamed 41-14 by Texas on their home field and knowing their star player will not be back to save them how will OSU respond on the road against a decent opponent? It seems like their win over Georgia came 10 years ago. There is still a 10-win season to play for and an outside shot (don’t laugh) at a BCS berth. Right now the focus has to be on winning here in just their third road game of the season. The Cyclones are still contenders in the wild, wild North even after last week’s 35-10 whipping at Texas A&M. Having already stuck my neck out for them on multiple occasions I think you know which way I am going here. The Cowboys want to make it clear they are the second best team in the Big XII and this is what it takes: Oklahoma State 27, Iowa State 17

Navy (6-3) @ Notre Dame (6-2): This is for the championship of the Independent conference right? We all know the story. The Irish intend to pass the football all over the field. The Midshipmen are going to run on just about every play having thrown the ball 70 times in 9 games. Everyone also knows the history of this series I’m sure. Notre Dame won 43 in a row before the 2007 meeting on this field, a 46-44 triple-OT thriller. Now they would just like to up the winning streak to 2. I like Navy’s discipline and it is obvious where it comes from. However, while they can gut out wins against average teams with frequency this is a different monster altogether. The Irish get Floyd back and they probably don’t even need him here. Their only downfall would be looking ahead to next week’s huge game at Pitt. With a subtle pregame reminder of what happened in 2007 this is not going to happen: Notre Dame 31, Navy 14

Duke (5-3) @ North Carolina (5-3): Clearly this is going to come down to 3-point shooting. Oh, it’s still football season? You can see why I was confused. The Tar Heels are getting used to having a winning record on the gridiron, but the Blue Devils? I have handed the Coastal division title to Georgia Tech. In reality Duke controls their own destiny with four more wins, including a home meeting with the Yellow Jackets next week. They can only dream of such a finish. The reality is probably a 5-7 finish, maybe 6-6 with a win against Wake Forest in the season finale. They aren’t winning at Miami I can tell you that, and not here either. UNC found some of their defensive swagger in upsetting Virginia Tech. They are well rested for the stretch run and while the division title is out of reach there is no pressure on them. Sometimes that makes a team more dangerous: North Carolina 26, Duke 10

LSU (7-1) @ Alabama (8-0): I have pointed out that November 14 is important for teams hoping to squeeze into one of the top two BCS title spots. A lot of the contenders will face their stiffest remaining regular season test next week, and in way this monster game kicks off the potential madness. If LSU is able to pull the upset on the road suddenly it is no lock for the SEC champion to face Texas for all the BCS marbles. What if the Tigers win out at 12-1 capped off by a revenge win over Florida? Are voters going to put them in over potentially undefeated Iowa or Cincinnati? What about Oregon? It could get interesting, but it won’t. That’s because the Tide bring the only offense to the table. I’m an underdog kind of guy and I would love to see the Tigers do something here. Their offense has been pretty flat, especially in the run department. Having to throw against Alabama in this environment is a recipe for disaster as the saying goes. Field goal kickers are going to have a lot to do with which team wins. Jasper has been good from short range for LSU, and is 2/4 from 40+. He has 13 attempts on the year. Alabama’s Tiffin is a ridiculous 20/23. I consider him more reliable and in what should be a close game a field goal or two early will allow Alabama to remain in control throughout: Alabama 20, LSU 9

Ohio State (7-2) @ Penn State (8-1): The story is Terrelle Pryor returning to Pennsylvania. Last year against the Nittany Lions his crucial fumble helped the visitors record a 13-6 win en route to a Big Ten championship. As if he needs more pressure on his shoulders that has to be on his mind as well. The Buckeyes still control their own destiny to win the conference and head to the Rose Bowl because they face Iowa next week. It’s going to be tight. These games usually are considering the defensive prowess on both sides. Both teams lost a bunch of offensive talent since last year’s meeting, which is scary considering the low point total. I feel as if PSU has gained a lot of momentum since losing to the Hawkeyes. Even if the schedule has been pillow soft, they have allowed only 7 touchdowns. Pryor will press too much and that’s the difference: Penn State 17, Ohio State 13

Oregon (7-1) @ Stanford (5-3): This is a much bigger game than most people think. The Ducks are understandably set up for a flat effort on the road following their romp over USC. The Cardinal sits alone in third place in the Pac-10 and 4-0 at home. More importantly, their offense has averaged 33.3 points in those wins. If you’re going to upset Oregon, scoring a lot of points is a must. There is of course always danger on the road, and it is a mixed bag for the hopeful conference champs. They opened with that memorable 19-8 disaster at Boise State. Their two road games since were over lower level conference foes UCLA and Washington. Two weeks from now Oregon visits second place Arizona so there are hurdles en route to a potential Rose Bowl bid. I can’t get last week out of my head. They took apart the Trojans on both sides of the ball. This is going to be a struggle because Gerhart is a man among boys. He will do his best to keep Oregon’s defense on the sidelines. It might work for a while, but eventually the visitors are going to look like national title game contenders: Oregon 31, Stanford 17

Oregon State (5-3) @ California (6-2): Fans of the Golden Bears still have nightmares of Kevin Riley running aimlessly and costing his team a shot at the #1 ranking two years ago against the Beavers. Then last year, trailing OSU 27-21 in the fourth quarter and backed into a deep hole, he threw the game clinching pick six to cap off a dismal 11/25 performance. I’m pretty sure he has been dreading his third shot are Oregon State. Last week I picked against Cal in part because they stink on the road and also because of their late season swoons. It seems like this year is going to be different, and back at home can they surge towards a 10-win season? Oregon State has a good chance to get on a roll with the Washington schools up next. They can stop the run, and anyone who has watched Cal trying to throw the football knows how problematic that will be. The Bears have also struggled on defense and the Rodgers brothers are ready to do them in again. If home field is the only reason I have to pick the Bears, well, I just can’t: Oregon State 27, California 24.

Upset Alert:

South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (4-4): In case you are wondering, the Razorbacks are favored by a touchdown in this one. I would be okay with Vegas installing them by a field goal on their home field, but given the team records this is an odd spread. I know the Gamecocks just got it handed to them at Tennessee. I also know their defense can render this wildly inconsistent offense useless. South Carolina needs to muster up all of their strength with this being their third road game out of four. They do it, and win outright.

BYU (6-2) @ Wyoming (4-4): The Cougars have yet to lose away from their home field all season, but in road trips against two comparable MWC opponents (UNLV and San Diego State) they gave up a total of 49 points. Coming off a bye week and still stinging from their 38-7 loss to TCU could leave them flat at the start. The Cowboys have lost two low scoring games on the road and last week gave Utah a fight throughout. Two touchdowns is too much to give them in this one although they will lose.

Wake Forest (4-5) @ Georgia Tech (8-1): I’m rolling the dice on Riley Skinner here. The ACC is wild. Too wild for a decent team to be a two-touchdown underdog even if they are on the road against the best in the conference. I feel like the Demon Deacons are going to keep this one interesting one way or another. They aren’t going to win it, but the outcome should be in doubt deep into the fourth quarter.