College Football Predictions - Week 11
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/12/09


It was another tough week for me at 5-6 as I tumbled to 87-45 overall. The toughest part was missing out on Ohio State and Stanford’s big wins because I suspected both had a chance to spring the upsets. I did get the Oregon State upset, but that’s like stealing because of my familiarity with California. Speaking of which, my upset alert choices are in a downward spiral. South Carolina seemed to have Arkansas on the ropes, but faded badly. Wyoming never had a chance at home against BYU, in stark contrast to the past two efforts from the Cowboys. The only hit was a big one. I was out on a limb saying Wake Forest would keep the outcome “in doubt deep into the fourth quarter” at Georgia Tech and they took the Yellow Jackets to OT. Let’s see if I can get this thing turned around. Because I don’t see much in the upset department this week I’m skipping the upset alert.

South Florida (6-2) @ Rutgers (6-2): As long as these teams are not playing Cincinnati or Pittsburgh they are just fine. More than fine, perfect at 12-0 to be exact. The cumulative scores are nearly identical as well. The Scarlet Knights lost to the Big East co-leaders 71-32 and the Bulls lost 75-31. On defense both teams give up roughly the same amount of total yards although Rutgers is stingier against the run. Offensively, even with young backup B.J. Daniels leading the way USF has the edge, especially running the ball. They also have home field and a roster of seniors sporting three wins against these guys. It’s either going to be sweet revenge to hold a national ranking or a clean sweep to spoil the party. Don’t ranked visitors always lose in games not played on Saturday? They do, but in this case even without his stud receiver I like Daniels. This time Grothe is not around to turn it over: South Florida 31, Rutgers 24

West Virginia (7-2) @ Cincinnati (9-0): Unlike the previous highlighted Big East game this one packs some punch in the title chase. However, even with some positive history including being the last team to win in this stadium the odds are stacked against them. Unless of course they can borrow whichever quarterback the Bearcats don’t use that is. Collaros has several sportswriters invoking the name of Wally Pip who famously was replaced by Lou Gehrig to start his record setting consecutive games played streak in baseball. I’m not sure I will go that far because Pike has done it over a longer period of time. Any quarterback can light it up over a short stretch and when teams get more film on the guy who has lost 1 game since junior high school things might change. For now, they have options. The Mountaineers have an inconsistent, banged up Brown at the helm. Even worse, their offensive firecracker Devine is also ailing. There will be a lot of pressure on the defense to come up huge on the road. Too much I think. Their first primetime effort against Connecticut was sloppy last week, but the Bearcats know what is at stake here: Cincinnati 30, West Virginia 17

Houston (8-1) @ Central Florida (5-4): Anyone who watched these Knights take on Texas last week knows this could get very interesting. Sure, UCF lost 35-3. They also found a way to stop Heisman candidate Colt McCoy’s offense from scoring on three of their first five possessions. That effort came on the road and the unit wore down in the second half. Might they play a little more inspired at home against an opponent that is not nearly as deep? One thing is certain, Heisman voters are interested to compare Case Keenum’s performance to what McCoy (33/42 for 470 yards 2 TD, 1 INT) was able to do. You would think that effort would be hard to top until you consider Keenum has thrown for 1,081 yards and 8 touchdowns over the past two weeks and is seeking his fourth 500+ yard game. We have seen this act before from ex-Cougars including current Eagles backup Kevin Kolb and ESPN announcer Andre Ware who has the hardware. Just imagine if this team had any defense whatsoever. It is literally like watching a tennis match when they play. All they want is a break point from their defense in the form of a forced punt. Just a couple is all it takes here in what will be another thriller: Houston 40, Central Florida 31

Tennessee (5-4) @ Mississippi (6-3): The Volunteers are taking the field with a winning record for the first time since they were 1-0 following a beat down of hapless Western Kentucky. For all the SEC chest pounders, the result that day was a 19-15 home loss to UCLA. The Bruins are 1-5 in Pac-10 play. Still, bowl eligibility is within their sights in year one under Monte, uh, Lane Kiffin. Even without this win, they face Vanderbilt at home next week before visiting Kentucky. That dangerous duo stands a combined 1-10 in SEC play. As for the Rebels, losing here would be another nail in the coffin labeled “overrated”. To date, a team that came into the season ranked in the top 10 has beaten only one FBS team with a winning record, Arkansas at 5-4. Oh those dangerous Razorbacks. It’s a good thing neither team scheduled multiple quality opponents are both might be struggling to reach a bowl game. Getting back to business, this is all about the erratic Ole Miss offense led by inconsistent quarterback Jevan Snead taking on a terrorizing defense coordinated by Monte Kiffin. It should be low scoring fun. The Rebels can play defense. Only two teams have topped 17 points against them, and one (Alabama) might be the best team in the country. The Vols have given up just 12 touchdowns total and 295 yards per game. There is no sure way to call a game pairing up defenses like this because Crompton and Snead are too unpredictable. I’m taking the home favorite like a wimp: Mississippi 17, Tennessee 14

Georgia Tech (9-1) @ Duke (5-4): By this time fans of the Blue Devils are usually firmly focused on basketball season. Well, in truth the focus never shifts but you see my point. It is almost incomprehensible to see Duke still technically alive for the ACC Coastal division championship. That’s because a win over the Yellow Jackets here puts them on 2 conference losses and next week they can shove Miami, FL out of the mix. Let’s not even get into the tiebreaker scenarios involving these teams and Virginia Tech because the madness stops right here. It has been a tremendous run towards an unlikely bowl appearance, but a fantasy scenario can’t stop the Georgia Tech rushing attack. Players need to make those tackles while they are awake and it is not happening: Georgia Tech 31, Duke 9

Missouri (5-4) @ Kansas State (6-4): What in the world happened to the Tigers? What exactly has gotten into the Wildcats? We know the answer to the second question. Bill Snyder came back. As for Mizzou, well, they started playing Big XII teams. After starting 4-0 rolling up 36.8 points per game against mostly innocuous opposition they were quickly shut down to the tune of 36 points total during their 0-3 start in conference play. The offense has kicked back into gear the past two weeks, but after registering a win at Colorado last week Baylor came into their house with a backup quarterback and turned delivered a 40-32 win. Their defense of the North is over and now it’s a struggle to qualify for a bowl game. The story is almost exactly the opposite for K-State. They suffered an embarrassing early loss at Louisiana-Lafayette a week after opening the season by escaping against Massachusetts at home 21-17. Yeah, UMass plays football. Who knew? Things have gone better in Big XII play (4-2) than outside (2-2). Regardless of how this game turns out, next week they can win the North title at Nebraska. I could see them looking ahead a bit, but after just getting burned picking against them I will count on their defense to look more like the unit allowing 30 points in three of their last four games and less like the one giving up 42 in the fourth, or 66 to Texas A&M for that matter: Kansas State 26, Missouri 20

Idaho (7-3) @ Boise State (9-0): If you think the battle for supremacy in this game is, well, small potatoes forget it. The AD for the Vandals, Rob Spear, went through a lot of trouble to avoid flying on a plane decorated for the Broncos. These teams want to make french fries out of each other. Idaho is in the midst of a solid season by their standards, but it has not come easy. Four of their wins have come by a grand total of 10 points. They could easily be mailing it in at 3-7 by now. Instead it is their intention to shock the world by winning on the famous blue turf. Don’t warm up the paddles to revive me from my heart attack if they were able to pull it off. Boise State is doing what they always do which is rolling right through the WAC. There are doubters unhappy with their margin of victory, but this team has put up 45+ points in six of their wins and opened the season by stifling Oregon 19-8. One big win does not make for a soft conference schedule, but until more teams agree to take them on there’s nothing to do except go 13-0 which they will: Boise State 42, Idaho 19

Stanford (6-3) @ USC (7-2): The Trojans are hoping to gain a measure of revenge against the last team to beat them at the Coliseum. I think a few people remember that one. Another upset could be in the making because Stanford comes in ranked and confident after knocking off Oregon. However, the road has not been kind to them. After spanking hopeless Washington State in the opener they are 0-3. In consecutive road games last month their defense allowed a combined 81 points and of course last week the Ducks put up 42. USC has to be excited to face a defense they can work against after looking pretty bad the past two games. Last week at Arizona State in particular Matt Barkley looked like he was back in high school. It seems like when the mighty Trojans are backed up against the wall they rise up and deliver a knockout. Gerhart expended a lot of energy last week and I don’t think he has enough to put this offense in his backpack again: USC 33, Stanford 19

Miami, FL (7-2) @ North Carolina (6-3): There will always be intrigue when these teams hook up as long as Butch Davis is coaching the Tar Heels. He has won both meetings against the team he coached in the late 90’s and the ‘Canes have lost all three trips here in their history. Barring a bizarre collapse neither team is going to catch Georgia Tech in the Coastal race so this is more about pride and bowl position. Or in UNC’s case officially qualifying for a bowl. Their final two games are on the road so nothing is guaranteed. It is going to be about their defense trying to shut down Jacory Harris and a talented young offense. At times Miami has been thrilling to watch. At other times it appears the lights have been shut off. This is going to be a struggle and in the ACC anything can happen. I don’t like how Miami has looked on the road and I do like UNC’s defense of late: North Carolina 20, Miami, FL 19

Nebraska (6-3) @ Kansas (5-4): Are we still talking about the Jayhawks? Week after week I have thought they might snap out of their funk and do something. Has a team ever started 5-0 and not gone to a bowl game? It might happen to them. Next week they go to Texas and the finale is at Arrowhead Stadium against rival Missouri. The Cornhuskers have been more like up, down, up, down and up this season. Other than Texas Tech and one big play from Virginia Tech no one has touched their defense. Seriously, throwing out those two games allowing a total of 47 points they have given up just 46 in the other seven outings. If they denied Tyrod Taylor on one play and managed the Red Raiders to stand at 8-1 I would have to say Mr. Suh might be a legit Heisman contender. As it stands they would need to win the North and upset Texas to win the Big XII for him to even get a ticket. Still, no one wants to take these guys on right now and certainly not a Kansas team with a struggling Todd Reesing at quarterback: Nebraska 23, Kansas 13

Iowa (9-1) @ Ohio State (8-2): Just two weeks ago I was talking about the Buckeyes and reminded everyone they were still in position to win the Big Ten. It seemed unlikely at the time. Now OSU is a win over a wounded Hawkeyes team away from getting it done. They don’t even need to win at Michigan next week. This is probably not the path they expected to take, but can thank the schedule makers for not giving them Iowa in October. At the very least they are peaking at the right time. Outscoring their past three opponents 107-14 Ohio State could not be more confident. Iowa has no quarterback now that Stanzi is gone for the season and their offense with him was probably going nowhere against this Buckeye defense. I’m sure the Hawkeye defense is going to show up and play their hearts out. They don’t quit and they don’t mail it in. I just feel like it’s too much to ask them to go on the road and pitch a shut out which is pretty much what it will take: Ohio State 20, Iowa 10

Florida (9-0) @ South Carolina (6-4): I pointed to November 14 as a date wishful outsiders could hope for a miracle and this is one of the reasons why. Steve Spurrier would love to throw the Gators off the rails with an upset win even if UF has already clinched the East title. The problem with this upset scenario is that the Gamecocks have faded badly since giving Alabama a pretty good tussle a month ago. The past two weeks have been particularly tough on their defense while giving up 64 points in losing efforts. The only bright spot is that only one team, Kentucky, has scored more than 16 points on them at home this season where SC is 5-0. I’m sure this really scares Florida as they look for win #20 in a row. It is a fact that this is just their fourth true road game of the season, but away from “The Swamp” they have given up 7, 3, 19 and 17 points which includes their win at Jacksonville. Their defense is downright filthy and will never let the home team have a chance to make it truly interesting when it matters: Florida 22, South Carolina 6

Fresno State (6-3) @ Nevada (6-3): For everyone who thinks the WAC is a complete cakewalk for Boise State I present these two teams. The Bulldogs in particular can play ball. They went to Wisconsin and lost 34-31, then two weeks later were turned away 28-20 by Cincinnati. How are those two teams doing in the AP poll? In between Boise State beat them in “The Valley” 51-34. Nevada was unable to get their offense started when facing “Big Six” opponents early on, but now that their Pistol is firing they are dangerous. Last week was the third time the Wolfpack scored 62+ points. Both teams are riding long winning streaks and still alive to win the WAC although Nevada gets it outright with three more wins. It’s a hard game to figure because Fresno State loves to run the ball and Nevada’s weakness is really their pass defense. I want to go with the upset because the Bulldogs are not intimidated by any environment, but I don’t see their offense keeping up: Nevada 40, Fresno State 35

Texas A&M (5-4) @ Oklahoma (5-4): Last week I said it was surprising to see the Sooners enter a game against Nebraska with an identical record. The same is true here multiplied by ten. It could have been the Aggies with a superior record if not for letting a lead get away at Colorado last week. Who can really figure this team? They are blown away by Arkansas, then hang with Oklahoma State, get hammered by Kansas State and throttle Texas Tech on the road all within 22 days. For all the struggles OU has gone through, none of it has happened in Norman. I expect them to get well here as they gear up to face two teams ahead of them in the South standings: Oklahoma 38, Texas A&M 15

Arizona (6-2) @ California (6-3): Unfortunately it looks like we have seen the last of Jahvid Best in the regular season. Staring at NFL millions he has some thinking to do about his financial future and with his head ringing from concussions it might be time to get some of that money. The Bears are left trying to salvage yet another disappointing season, but losing him is only part of the problem. Their offense changed coordinators and lost a great line coach. Without much talent at wide receiver their attack has become very predictable. The defense has not been strong enough at the second level to keep them competitive in big games. This meeting against the Wildcats certainly qualifies. Suddenly Arizona is the team carrying a national ranking with Pac-10 title aspirations. A win here and next week in the desert against Oregon would put them in a great spot. Because of a quirk in the schedule this is their first road game in a month after spending the previous few weeks on the road. With all due respect to Strawberry Canyon it is not very intimidating of late and especially when the Bears don’t have it going: Arizona 27, California 17

Auburn (7-3) @ Georgia (5-4): Is this really the fourth best team in the SEC? Of course I’m talking about the Tigers, not the Bulldogs who just over a year ago were ranked #1. If Auburn wins this game they will go into the Iron Bowl in two weeks feeling pretty good about hanging with Alabama. A loss would bring them crashing back to their dreadful October slide. Georgia, thanks in part to scheduling two “Big Six” opponents which is unusual for teams in the SEC, is still trying to get bowl eligible. Regardless of the outcome here they should be able to handle Kentucky at home next week to take care of that, but just talking about it this late in the season is shocking. Coming home is a big deal and after knocking the dust off last week against lightweight Tennessee Tech I’m taking the ‘Dawgs to pull this one out: Georgia 31, Auburn 27

Utah (8-1) @ TCU (9-0): The Horned Frogs have had this game circled on their calendar since losing a heartbreaker to the Utes last year thanks to their inability to kick a field goal. This time I assure you they are not going to let it come down to that. Thus far Utah has been able to get by on their defense. The only team to score more than 17 points on them all season was Oregon during their only loss of the season. TCU is even tougher on defense and ironically the only team to post over 17 points against them was their weakest opponent of the season – Texas State. Neither team allows 300 yards per game so it seems like defense is going to rule the day. However, TCU has the better athletes this time around and a more experienced offense. They are going to win this with an exclamation point: TCU 30, Utah 14

Texas Tech (6-3) @ Oklahoma State (7-2): When the season began everyone was calling the Cowboys the 2009 version of the 2008 Red Raiders. There was talk of another three-way tie for the Big XII South division. That didn’t happen and because OSU was stunned at home by Houston the comparisons seem to be out the window. However, they have a chance to do something Texas Tech did not do which is finish as the undisputed second best team in the conference. The Red Raiders would love to spoil the party and improve their own bowl position. This expensive field has not exactly done much for the Cowboys with both of their losses coming here. Those losses came to Houston and Texas. Texas Tech met both teams on the road in consecutive weeks and lost tight games 34-24 and 29-28. Their other road game was a 31-10 spanking of possible North winner Nebraska. They can be troublesome if they get off to a good start. I’m going with the certainty of Toston running the ball over the uncertainty of the visitor’s passing game: Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 27

Notre Dame (6-3) @ Pittsburgh (8-1): The Panthers are very much focused on winning the Big East, but it helps to have an open Saturday on deck to prepare for the stretch run in conference play. They should be able to firmly focus on keeping the Irish down. This is going to be a fight because quite frankly the gap between these teams is not as large as most think. Notre Dame obviously has had their issues with consistency and getting stops on defense, but their offense can be downright scary at times. Pittsburgh has not exactly gone through a gauntlet of opponents to get where they are. They get solid quarterback play from Stull, bunches of rushing yards from Lewis and plenty of defense to carry them. This works great against a string of bottom level Big East teams and mostly weak non-conference foes. Notre Dame might be the best team they have faced all season. It is a high profile game under the lights at Heinz Field with the upset alert at Defcon 5. I just can’t back the Irish on the road where they have not played since September, an ugly 24-21 win at Purdue. No, I’m not counting the “exhibition” at San Antonio against dismal Washington State thank you for paying attention: Pittsburgh 27, Notre Dame 24 (OT)