College Football's Wills and Will Nots
by Neil Barduson, 8/4/07

Heading into the college football season, everybody has prognosticated what the season will turn out to be.  Not to be left out of the crowd, here are some predictions of my Wills and Will Nots.

WILL HAPPEN

At the end of the year, the Heisman WILL be in John David Booty’s hands.
Here are seven reasons why. One, he is on the #1 team heading into the season and has the best chance of going undefeated of any starting quarterback.  Two, Booty has a 3,347 yard 29 touchdown season behind him.  Three, he has a top ten offensive line in front of him.  Four, in back of him is a ridiculously sickening talented backfield of Chauncey Washington, Hershel Dennis, Emmanuel Moody, C.J. Gable, Stafon Johnson, Allen Bradford, Marc Tyler, and Joe McKnight; all of those guys have 1,800 yards and 20+ TD capabilities. 
Shelly Castellano ICON SMI

Five, Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett, and Steve Smith were instant stars as freshman and sophomores; this year’s receiver group is just as talented as years past and the passing will not skip a beat this year with Patrick Turner- 6’ 5’’ 230 lbs., David Ausberry- 6’ 5’’ 215 lbs., Vidal Hazelton-6’ 3’’ 200 lbs., and star in the making tight end Fred Davis. Six, Booty easily has the best defense behind him in the nation.  Seven, USC has a schedule that will make USC play tough ball, yet it is manageable.  Darren McFadden is going to have a tougher time this year because the Hog’s defense won’t be as good as last years; also he lost Tony Ugoh and Mitch Mustain.  Brian Brohm could also pull it off if he leads Louisville to the championship game.  If Colt Brennan throws 6,000 yards and 60+ TDs while leading his Warriors to a BCS game, he would be a strong candidate.  In the end though Booty has too many Heisman factors going for him, and his road to get there is more probable than the others.
Colt Brennan WILL lead his Hawaii program to the Fiesta Bowl.
One of the best passing attacks ever put together in college football going against a below average schedule equals a BCS berth.  It is hard to believe, but Colt Brennan is most likely going to improve on his 5,549 yard 58 TD season.  This could be the first time in history to have a team have a 1,000 yard rusher and three 1,000 yard receivers on one team.  The only four teams that have the slightest chance of competing with the Warriors are Fresno State, New Mexico State, Boise State, and Washington; which all play the Warriors at Hawaii.  The defense returns its top two tacklers in Adam Leonard and Solomon Elimimian, so running the football won’t be easy, but opposing teams will most likely be too far behind to be running the ball. 

Every team in the Big Ten WILL lose at least two conference games.
The only team in Big Ten with potential to dominate and go undefeated in conference play is Michigan.  Ohio State is rebuilding, but it still has 10 win potential.  Penn State should be a better team even though they lost Poz, Levi Brown, and Tony Hunt.  Iowa will definitely put a better team on the field this year.  The Hawkeye’s front seven is one of the best in the Big Ten and should be able to run the ball effectively.  All Wisconsin really lost was Joe Thomas and John Stocco, but Stocco’s service is replaceable.  Like Iowa, Wisconsin will have be best at running the football on offense and stopping the run on defense; the only difference between the two is that the Badger’s have a little more pop with their offense with Travis Beckum and Paul Hubbard.  Purdue has been under achieving for the past couple years, however they have a potent offense, which has not been seen since Drew Brees’ days.  Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana are not conference bottom dwellers anymore and are on the rise.  All three teams have returning starting quarterbacks and playmakers that can give the upper echelon of the Big Ten headaches.  Illinois has a potent Juice Williams to Arrelious Benn combo, Northwestern has the small yet productive Tyrell Sutton, and Indiana boasts the Kellen Lewis to James Hardy duo.  I see those three teams pulling one or two upsets.  Michigan State and Minnesota both will decline in talent this year and are both breaking in new quarterbacks and coaches.  There will be better days for Minnesota with Brewster’s up tempo recruiting and new Gopher stadium coming.  This years Big Ten will be the most balanced it has been in a while resulting in a more than likely tie of 6-2 conference records.

WILL NOT HAPPEN

Darren McFadden WILL NOT win the Heisman.
In my last article I pegged Darren McFadden as the most overrated player in college football, and I got nailed for it.  I am sticking with my opinion though.  When people get excited to see McFadden throw touch down passes and think he is a multi threat running back, they are mistaken.  Just because he throws a football to a wide-open receiver does not mean this guy is superman, the passes McFadden threw were throws most high school quarterbacks can make.  Where Darren’s extraordinary talents lie is in his acceleration, speed, and strength, which are Heisman caliber talents.  However, it takes more than atheism to win the Heisman.  It takes being on a successful team, exceeding expectations, and an injury free season, which he might struggle some in those areas.  Arkansas will lose a lot of talent this year with Mitch Mustain, Tony Ugoh, Jamaal Anderson, and Chris Houston.  With that talent last year they beat Vanderbilt by two, Alabama by one, and South Carolina by six, all of those teams are improving.  What I am trying to get at is Arkansas will not be in double digit wins this season.  Also Arkansas non-conference schedule won’t help Darren either.  They play Troy, North Texas, Chattanooga, and Florida International, which all are home games.  When Matt Leinert won the Heisman, the Trojans took on Virginia Tech, BYU, and Notre Dame.  When Reggie Bush won theh Heisman they played at Hawaii, Arkansas, and at Notre Dame,and a #16 rated Fresno State (where USC was down and Bush turned the game around by himself).  Yes, McFadden will most likely run for 1,800 yards and 20+ TDs, but 800 yards and 10 TDs of it will be against bottom of the barrel teams.  Also Darren needs to make more people miss to win the Heisman in my mind as well, he gets most of his yards on long runs where he uses he pure speed to score, which is ok.  He just needs to make more highlight moves like Reggie and Vince did.  So if you think McFadden is going to win the Heisman, forget about it.

Notre Dame WILL NOT win more than seven games this year.
Last year was suppose to be the year for Notre Dame to get the big wins against big time schools, yet they had a combine lost of 59-132 in its Michigan, USC, and LSU games.  The offense is very young and only returns two seniors, which are their tight end and center(not the best place to return experience on the offense).  All the skill positions are highly touted prospects; however they are going to go through their rookie mistakes.  Also their will most likely be a quarterback controversy between “QB recruit of the decade” Jimmy Clausen and Demetrius Jones.  Maybe those two will learn how to play with each other and benefit, but most of the time quarterback controversies end up being a negative for a team.  So expect the 23rd ranked offense to drop.  The defense was totally absent in the big games and under achieved most of the year in my mind.  The Irish D brings back only five players back with considerable playing time; not the best way to improve a 65th ranked defense.  Notre Dame has one of its worst teams on paper in recent memory.  Even though they have plenty of talent, they are young and they need a stable force on the team to flourish, which there is none.  That isn’t even the most daunting part of their upcoming season.  They have a brutal eight starting games which goes as follows; Georgia Tech, at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan State, at Purdue, at UCLA, Boston College, and USC.  All of those teams are better than the years past excluding Michigan State and maybe Georgia Tech.  My guess is that the Irish will open 2-6 in its first eight games and finish strong with weaker opponents of Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford to finish the season 6-6.  I wouldn’t be surprised even with a 4-8 showing.  Charlie Weis though IS bringing back the navy and gold and is recruiting high talent to South Bend; Notre Dame will just need patience to get through this year.

Texas nor Oklahoma WILL NOT be standing on top of the Big Twelve.
Let me just put it as this:  Texas and Oklahoma are on a little downward slide, Oklahoma more so than Texas, and the rest of the Big Twelve is on an upward slide.  Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Missouri have put together their best teams in the past five years.  Ron Prince’s  Kansas State Wildcats and Mike Leach’s Texas Tech Red Raiders always pose a threat to shake up the top as well.  All of the teams mentioned so far have returning quarterback besides Oklahoma.  Baylor, Kansas, and Iowa State don’t match up with the other nine Big Twelve teams and should only split three conference wins between them, which leaves a very competitive Big Twelve race.  This is the year for teams not named Oklahoma or Texas to dominate the Big Twelve, because in the next three years Texas and Oklahoma will be much, much, better.