2009 NFL Mock Draft
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL and College Analysis
7/21/08

As we close in on the opening of the college football season following quickly by NFL openers this is my first stab at the 2009 draft. Because speculating on some players and not others really isn’t fair I will assume all underclassmen studs are entering the draft.

#1 Miami: WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) – The Dolphins, like most of the teams I have slated to draft high next year, haven’t found their quarterback. They also traded away their best receivers (Chambers and Welker) and even with five picks in the top 110 failed to draft a replacement. In fact, none of their nine selections were spent on a receiver, or tight end for that matter. Crabtree is a talent. He is 6’3” and in a pass happy Red Raider offense logged 145+ yards receiving last year in eight of thirteen games. Only twice was he held under 100 yards, in a rout loss to Missouri (10 catches for 76 yards) and rout win over Baylor. He’s their immediate #1 and looks to be another Calvin Johnson. One year after no receivers go in round one he is the first since Keyshawn (1996) to go first overall.

#2 Atlanta: OT Michael Oher (Mississippi) – It was a telling move seeing them shoot back into the first round for Sam Baker (USC) who in all likelihood isn’t their answer at left tackle, possibly not even at right tackle according to some scouts. Before poster boy Matt Ryan can get going the offensive line needs to get in order. Oher almost came out last year and probably would have been taken in the 7-15 range or even later because of the quality available. There are issues he has to work out, but almost everyone believes in his ability to excel at the pro level.

#3 Kansas City: DE/OLB Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech) – With 12 picks last year the Chiefs addressed every offensive position other than fullback and quarterback. Defensively they picked up three in the secondary, a linebacker and defensive tackle. The glaring omission is defensive end after trading Jared Allen. Currently Tamba Hali and Turk McBride represent young, promising starters but it is becoming necessary to stockpile pass rushers as teams try to pressure the quarterback. He is the top guy at this point although some believe he has to take a step up to get drafted this high.

#4 NY Jets: RB Chris Wells (Ohio State) – It was no secret they were hoping Darren McFadden would fall into their laps and when he didn’t they got a nice consolation prize with defensive end Vernon Gholston. Now they hit up the Buckeyes again with the top running back prospect. Thomas Jones will be 31 at the start of the 2009 season and quite frankly it puts me to sleep talking about him. He’s about as ordinary as they come. Wells will provide them with a guy able to hit the hole and take advantage of what should be a better offensive line, notably on the left side as they try to get back into the AFC East mix.

#5 San Francisco: ILB Rey Maualuga (USC) – Are the 49ers really this bad? Yeah, maybe they are because the division is just a little better than them and the quarterback position is still weak. They would have loved Crabtree and honestly as a fan it’s fun to imagine him in a Martz offense. I really wanted them to take another impact linebacker last year and this is turning into a “second chance” draft in some ways as teams realize what they missed out on in the 2008 event. Maualuga joining Patrick Willis at linebacker with the improvements to the line in front of them gives this defense a fighting chance.

#6 Chicago: QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia) – They had a dozen draft picks, but five of them came in the final round after 207 prospects were off the board. Still, not one was a quarterback. Seriously, can we end the pain? Stafford is in line for the top spot as his ‘Dawgs are expected to compete for the national title. For him to go this high the production will need to go up. Last year his top yardage effort was 237 yards in a 45-20 win over Auburn when he completed only 11 passes. He finished with 55.7% completions on the season in the defensive minded SEC, but has the tools that scouts look for. I recall another SEC quarterback with even worse production (Croyle, Alabama) and he hasn’t exactly flourished for the Chiefs.

#7 Tennessee: CB Vontae Davis (Illinois) – Obviously I expect a tough season for the Titans in a brutal division. The 2008 draft saw them upgrade their offensive skill positions while adding two pass rushers. Now it is time to draft a top corner for their secondary. You might now Vontae’s older brother Vernon who was a top 10 pick at tight end for the 49ers. Scouts believe he is a better player on the other side of the ball and might have been the top corner had he come out early. He’s the perfect addition to erase any memory of Adam Jones.

#8 Washington: DT Fili Maola (USC) – Their quarterback Jason Campbell must have felt like it was his birthday when they drafted a pair of receivers and a tight end in the top 51, then a guard to help protect him. The defense, however, was mostly ignored other than a few additions in the secondary late. Their run defense was strong in 2008 allowing just 91.3 yards per game. Cornelius Griffin will be into his thirties and even if still productive next year has to be replaced.

#9 Detroit: CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State) – Their NFL worst defense was bolstered by three top 100 draft picks for the front seven. Now they have to get a corner to lock up the opposing #1 receiver. Jenkins wisely decided not to enter last year’s loaded draft and is rewarded with a top 10 selection.

#10 Baltimore: OT Andre’ Smith (Alabama) – I have to think the Ravens knew Jonathan Ogden was going to retire prior to the draft, but spent only two middle round picks on the offensive line as other teams scrambled to scoop up the left tackle prospects early. Currently their offensive line is being totally shuffled with several players changing positions. Depending on how it all works out, they likely need another quality tackle.   
#11 Oakland: DE Tyson Jackson (LSU) – A year after passing on a Tiger defensive lineman, this time they call his name. Because of their many needs the Raiders weren’t able to get the stud pass rusher to pair up with Derrick Burgess. Instead they picked up veterans Kalimba Edwards and Greg Spires for a look while drafting a project in Trevor Scott (Buffalo). The also have Jay Richardson, a 2007 draft pick, but unless someone in that group other than the almost spent Spires really shows a lot this season I expect an end in this spot. It is also very possible Burgess wants out of The Black Hole.

#12 St. Louis: OT Alex Boone (Ohio State) – The Rams have serious issues on the offensive line. Steps were taken in the 2008 draft with guard/tackle John Greco (Toledo) and guard Roy Schuening (Oregon State) but neither of those guys will step into Orlando Pace’s spot at left tackle. They have to take someone who has that ability because Alex Barron simply isn’t going to the guy they expected to eventually switch sides.

#13 Houston: OLB Brian Cushing (USC) – How can I be mad at the Texans? They finally stepped up and took an offensive tackle early for their woeful line. Their defense is starting to look pretty good, especially if tackle Amobi Okoye (who amazingly just turned 21) can continue his development. DeMeco Ryans is an outright star in the middle and Cushing could do a lot of damage next to him. Their front 7 looks ready to age Peyton Manning in a hurry as he chases Favre’s records.

#14 Cincinnati: ILB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) – By all means their linebacker situation should be in better shape, but even after taking Keith Rivers (USC) at #9 last year to play the outside they still have no one to roam the middle. Laurinitus chose to stay with the Buckeyes another season and might have gone #15 to Detroit if he had come out. Now they get a player with a good attitude and reputation for a change.

#15 Arizona: RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) – This is another “re-draft” pick. I have no idea how the Cardinals could have exited the 2008 draft with only fifth round selection Tim Hightower (Richmond) at the running back position. History tells us that Edgerrin James won’t be a productive back much longer and will turn 31 just prior to next season. The ‘Dawgs are going to be serious BCS title contenders this season and Moreno should be a big part of it. After his worst game in a blowout loss at Tennessee (13 carries for 30 yards) he reeled off five impressive games averaging 26.2 carries for 153.2 yards and 9 total touchdowns. For the year he trailed only Darren McFadden in the SEC with 1,334 yards rushing.

#16 Tampa Bay: QB Tim Tebow (Florida) – I admit this might be one of my crazy, delirious picks. No one really knows where the reigning Heisman winner will be drafted, if he will come out this season and how he projects on the pro level. However, if there is a coach who is intrigued by the possibilities it has to be Jon Gruden. I expect their quarterback depth chart to thin out considerably after the 2008 season. Jeff Garcia isn’t likely to be back and Bruce Gradkowski was just cut. Chris Simms doesn’t seem to be in the plans and Brian Griese is just a helmet holder at this point. Josh Johnson (San Diego) was drafted as a project and if he looks good they won’t take Tebow. I could see J.J. as a solid backup though, paving the way for this pick to keep him in the Sunshine State where he belongs.

#17 Philadelphia: DE George Selvie (South Florida) – After trading out of the 2008 first round now they are the only team slated to pick twice in 2009. Their first priority has to be finding a bookend to Trent Cole. Chris Clemons was a nice addition for an occasional pass rusher. Selvie gives them a player to really lean on. Playing in a tougher division with a more difficult schedule I do expect the Eagles to be drafting higher than the Panthers.

#18 Buffalo: FS Myron Rolle (Florida State) – The Bills have been building an impressive secondary through recent drafts. I’m not certain Ko Simpson is really the answer opposite of Donte Whitner. After a down year at safety this crop is looking very strong. Rolle might be the final piece of their secondary puzzle.

#19 Denver: FS/SS Taylor Mays (USC) – John Lynch is highly unlikely to be lining up to play at age 38 which he will be during the first month of the 2009 campaign. They added three safeties preparing for his exit including draft pick Josh Barrett (Arizona State) but none will have the impact of Mays.

#20 Minnesota: TE Travis Beckum (Wisconsin) – Their 2008 draft was hampered by giving up three picks for defensive end Jared Allen. I like their young receivers, but the team still has no standout tight end. Beckum is a serious receiving threat coming off two 900+ yard seasons. Over the last two seasons he has fifteen games with 60+ yards and seven with 100+. He has averaged 5.23 receptions per game and would give either Tarvaris Jackson or John David Booty a quality option in the middle of the field.
#21 Jacksonville: WR Percy Harvin (Florida) – Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson were added to bolster their weak receiving corps, but it won’t take long for them to realize it isn’t enough. Where is the big play threat? Harvin is a player who can get down the field at receiver or provide an occasional spark running the ball. In his final four games last year he averaged 12.5 carries for 133 yards (10.64 average) while catching 6.3 passes for 73.8 yards and scoring 5 total touchdowns. That’s over 200 total yards per game against four BCS teams. He’s going to be special.

#22 Cleveland: OT Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma) – After not having a pick in the opening 100 due to various trades the Browns are welcomed back to day one of the draft. I think it has to be very tempting for them to secure a player to occupy the right tackle position in the foreseeable future considering they already have Joe Thomas on the left side. Good teams are built on the lines and they already attacked the defensive part of that equation.

#23 Pittsburgh: OG Duke Robinson (Oklahoma) – When the Steelers had running back Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois) and wide receiver Limas Sweed (Texas) fall into their lap on day one the team seemed to forget their offensive line woes. Afterwards they tried to sell the fact that Big Ben has more options and can get rid of the ball faster making the weak line less important. I’m not buying that and 2008 will prove it against a murderous schedule when he lands on his back 50 times. I’ll set the over/under on his games played at 11.

#24 New Orleans: RB LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) – I can already see the eyebrows rising over this one, but #2 overall pick or not Reggie Bush is not an every down back. He needs help and is already having people calling him a bust. I’m not going that far, but clearly Deuce McAllister is not long for this roster. They need someone to line up and pound the football. It’s debatable if McCoy can work his way into the opening round, but on a terrible Panther team he still managed to pound out 100+ yards in seven of twelve games including six over 120.

#25 NY Giants: DT Al Woods (LSU) – The 2008 draft saw them spend four of their first five picks on their defensive back seven. Even without Michael Strahan they have enough defensive ends on hand. What will come in handy is another key player on the inside of the line. Last year Woods had #5 overall pick Glenn Dorsey at his side and with the spotlight firmly on him this season it will be interesting to see how he performs.

#26 Philadelphia (via Carolina): SS/FS William Moore (Missouri) – With their second first round pick value will be first and foremost, but in Moore they get a player who fills a need as well. Brian Dawkins is unlikely to play a major role at age 36 which he will turn during the 2009 season. They drafted Quentin Demps (UTEP) to fill that spot and now select a player to displace the uninspiring Sean Considine.

#27 Green Bay: OT Ciron Black (LSU) – I expected them to upgrade the offensive line a little more than two middle round picks in the 2008 draft and here they select a potential stalwart to solidify one of the tackle spots for the future. Clifton and Tauscher are both into their thirties.

#28 Seattle: OT Max Unger (Oregon) – The Seahawks managed to not draft a single offensive lineman despite it being a major weakness. It has to be addressed early and in Unger they get a “local” favorite. Their running game won’t improve in 2008 despite the addition of backs including Julius Jones because the line is weak.

#29 Indianapolis: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland) – I expected them to draft a receiver in the top 100 in anticipation of the injured (and old) Marvin Harrison not having much time left in his career. Now it is an even higher priority. This gives them a solid starter to stick outside with Wayne as their #1 and Gonzalez in the slot.

#30 New England: RB C.J. Spiller (Clemson) – Their backfield is razor thin on youth behind Laurence Maroney. What they really need is someone to fill the role of vastly underappreciated Kevin Faulk who has 26+ receptions out of the backfield every season this decade and always seems to make a key play. Spiller is quick and caught 34 passes during a 9-4 season for the Tigers. They are expected to win the ACC title which will put him in the spotlight. His sophomore year was actually more productive running the ball as he finished with 938 yards. He had an eight game stretch averaging 101.4 yards rushing with 9 total touchdowns. It has to be mentioned that teammate James Davis has led the team in rushing the past three seasons, but Spiller is more versatile.

#31 Dallas: ILB Brandon Spikes (Florida) – The Cowboys certainly have their share of issues at linebacker. Zach Thomas was brought in to finish off his stellar career, but recent picks Kevin Burnett and more so Bobby Carpenter have not lit the world on fire to say the least. Greg Ellis is currently disgruntled and their 3-4 probably will be looking at an early addition.

#32 San Diego: OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia) – After missing out on most of the 2008 draft due to traded picks the Chargers should be looking to fill the one spot I expected them to hit which is right tackle. Obviously I feel they will be a good team this season and Monroe is the last of the top tier players at the position.