Nothing
is ever as it seems in fantasy football. One week a particular
player is roundly rejected as waiver wire fodder but after a multiple
touchdown performance, suddenly that same player is a “hot pick” for
the next week. Two weeks ago Steelers’ second stringer Najeh Davenport
put together an outstanding stat line for a back up running back: seven
carries for 58 yards, four receptions for 38 yards while scoring two
TDs. Davenport quickly became that week’s most treasured waiver wire
commodity for those in need of a running back and if it weren’t for
Pittsburgh’s bye the following week, he may have been picked up in even
more leagues.
While it seems as though Davenport would be hard-pressed to replicate
his Week 5 performance he still retains a significant amount of value
and not just for Willie Parker owners. One big reason for this is
Willie Parker’s penchant for goal line ineptitude.
Parker was amongst the
league leaders in fumbles a year ago and just
doesn’t hit holes fast enough from five yards in. This idea was
confirmed on Davenport’s first TD in week five. After an apparent 26
yard TD run by Parker, the play was challenged and the Steelers took
possession on the one yard line. And who got that one yard gift of a
TD? Davenport, who would score his second TD of the day in similar
fashion and made many a Willie Parker owner feel like Duce Staley
owners felt in 2004 thanks to Jerome Bettis.
Believe it or not, Davenport’s production so far this year ranks him in
the top 30 of all fantasy running backs outscoring names like Rudi
Johnson, Brandon Jacobs and Julius Jones. And with the potential to
become a “Goal line Vulture” at any moment starting Davenport
definitely falls under the category of “high risk, high reward” but has
the potential for benefits. |
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Speaking of “Potential” and “Benefits” this week offers Davenport a
healthy dose of both. The Steelers head to Denver to face the Broncos,
whose rushing defense is dead last in the NFL giving up 187 yards per
game on the ground. With Parker averaging 101.4 rushing yards per game
through five games, that means there are roughly 86 yards out there to
be gained by someone else and Davenport is certainly the leading
candidate to do so. The Broncos have also given up six total rushing
TDs in 2007, the fifth most in the league.
So this brings us to our original question; Is Najeh worth considering
as a fantasy option? This week will tell us a lot about how this
situation will unfold for the rest of the season. Will he supplant
Willie Parker? Absolutely not. Parker is the unquestioned number one.
But the Steelers have reasons to look to get the ball into his hands
because he is averaging 7.5 yards per carry and has scored a touchdown
every 11.6 touches making him a starting fantasy option on a limited
basis. Parker is also averaging a league high 24.1 carries per game, so
Mike Tomlin may look to spell Parker a little more frequently as the
season rolls on.
Whether you chose to start Davenport this week or not depends largely
on your current stable of fantasy RB’s. If you’ve got better options,
look else where. If you don’t need him this week consider him on the
“Sneak Tip” in the future. But if you are being ravaged by injuries or
the Bye Week, he could really pan out for you this week.
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