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NFL Draft Scouting Journal 3. The Running Backs
by Jared Donnelly
NFL Draft Analyst
1/22/08

Now that we know who exactly is returning to The Varsity World, let’s take a look at the guys who are heading on to the glitz, glamour, and pressure-cooker atmosphere that is the NFL game.

I am anticipating taking a little bit of heat for this article and that’s fine. In life, as in football and especially the NFL Draft, there is a great focus on calculated risk based on what you truly believe to be true, and reward.  Let’s take a look at these backs keeping that in mind.

Felix Jones, Arkansas
I truly think that Jones is the best pure back in this draft.  He doesn’t run as straight up and down as McFadden and that allows him to gain a lot of yardage after contact.  His versatility in the passing game may come into question pre-draft, however, there will be plenty of opportunities to dispute that in workouts and testing. Jones is stronger than he gets credit for and I think that is an important attribute to have as a back. Jones averaged an astounding 8.7 yards per carry and also scored 11 touchdowns. Numbers like that do not often get ignored as much as they have been in Jones’ case. Also, he can help in the return game, which is going to be a big help for teams that need a playmaker. While he may not be the playmaker that teammate McFadden is, his numbers are eye-popping.

It seems odd, but in a lot of ways, I liken this to Reggie Bush’s situation coming into the NFL. A lot of notable experts questioned Bush’s ability to be an every down back and thought that in terms of a pure runner, LenDale White was a better option. Jones is not in the mold of White, but in terms of a traditional running game in the NFL, he projects as a much more viable option that his teammate does. There is a precedence for this in today’s NFL. Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams were once at the center of this argument coming out of Auburn and it is inarguable that Brown has been the better back. Not carrying it as much, but still being as effective as McFadden may lead to more durability as an NFL back long term. Less punishment in NCAA means more carries as an NFL feature back over time. Right now I have him to Houston but do not be surprised if he moves up 5-8 spots between now and April 26.  

Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Having said what I said about Jones, do not think that I am discounting what a special athlete Run DMc is. He is electric in the passing and running game and has the breakaway speed that makes NFL suits and coaches drool. His ability and vision to find holes and hit them hard while still being a patient runner makes him an instant fit on a lot of teams in need of a back.  What worries me is that he did carry it a lot at Arkansas and was shut down in some games against Auburn and perennial bottom feeder Florida International (four TDs is nice, but his 3.2 average is less than inspiring). He runs very up and down and takes a lot of hits. In this way he reminds me a little bit of Eddie George with better pure speed. As a long term prospect, I am not sure I like him as much as most people do. However, for five or six years, he should make a large impact as long as he adjusts to running against NFL defenses, something that Reggie Bush never did. Right now, I have McFadden going to the Raiders and that seems like a lock if he is there but it is possible that he could sneak up a spot or two but no more. Not because of inadequacies, but because other teams ahead of him don’t need a back or have larger holes to fill.

Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
A quick back that doesn’t shy away from contact is important in today’s NFL and Stewart fits the bill. Combine the fact that he played against quick (not necessarily great) defenses in the Pac-10 and still averaged 6.2 per carry and you have a viable weapon as an everydown back in the NFL. He may lack the pure speed of some of the other backs in this class, but everyone said that about Emmitt Smith as well and I think that that is a favorable and reasonable comparison to make. Dennis Dixon was the focal point of that offense and his rushing and passing stats behind a less than outstanding line suggest that Stewart is a good blocker as well. In terms of draft stock, he is a bottom of the first round type of guy and could find a home in Seattle (a perfect fit). However, Dallas could take a back to replace Julius Jones if he is not in their long term plans. Look for Stewart to test out well and get some looks from Houston or Arizona. I also have not ruled out Denver selecting him due to the perpetual uncertainty that is The Travis Henry Situation.

Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
He really burst onto the scene as a hard runner in the OSU game despite average stats but for a lot of people, he was someone to keep an eye on much earlier than that. Consistency is an issue but I happen to think that some of his inconsistency is due to a somewhat iffy offense for most of the season. He is a big physical back but lacks great speed (4.55 40 time) and despite playing in a weak Big 10, did not have huge numbers against the top teams in that conference. In all fairness, the main reason that I have him as high as I do amongst backs is because I am not as high on this class as a lot of people. Mendenhall should benefit from a class with only two or three standouts and work his way into either the bottom four or five picks of round one, or the top four or five picks of round two. Dallas will look, so will most of the other teams looking at his fellow RB prospects. To me, if Atlanta takes a QB in round one, Mendenhall would make a lot of sense in round two (if he is available).

Ray Rice, Rutgers
The more I think about Rice, the more I like him. He lacks breakaway speed (as is evident by him barely squeaking by the Ball St. D for that TD in his bowl game) but he is fast enough to change some things on the field. I recently did an interview with Bobby Deren of Rivals.com where I liken Rice to Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville. I think that is a good comparison for more reasons than just his size. He catches the ball well (39 grabs in 07) and always seems like he knows exactly where to be all the time. Don’t let his size fool you though, he runs bigger than his body and his low center of gravity allows him to be compact and shifty as he breaks though the line of scrimmage. Good vision and decent pass-blocking ability should sneak him into the bottom of round two or the first few picks in round three. A team like Cleveland makes a lot of sense and so does Washington since I think there is some trepidation about their ability to keep both Betts and Portis and the fact that Portis is not getting any younger and has had trouble staying healthy over 16 games for much of his career.

Next up are the defensive backs. It is a particularly deep corner class so we will focus on them first.

Michael Abromowitz's 2008 NFL Mock Draft
Gregory Cox's 2008 NFL Mock Draft
Paul Eide's 2008 NFL Mock Draft
Jared Donnelly's 2008 NFL Mock Draft
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