Marion Barber or Clinton Portis?
by Paul Eide
Fantasy Football Director
8/5/08

If you are picking at number six or beyond in this year’s fantasy draft, you will probably have to at least consider the possibility of owning one of these two running backs. On the surface both backs appear to be extremely similar. Both are unquestioned number one’s who will get the majority if not all of the goal line carries and will contribute in the passing game, especially valuable in PPR leagues. But if you have to choose, who do you pick?  

Overview
Barber enters 2008 as the unquestioned starter for the first time in his career and as the result of being a back-up in 2007, Barber had only three games with 18+ carries. The good news for Barber owners is that he seems to produce no matter what. In those three games, he averaged 103 yards and scored three TD and in 10 games where Barber had 10+ carries last year he averaged 77.9 rushing yards per game and scored 8 TD. He was also very active in the Dallas passing attack with 44 receptions on the year and seven games with 3+ catches. Over his three years in the league Barber has improved statistically every year thanks to an increased amount of touches each year, scoring a total of 33 TD over that span. Barber’s productivity was trending upwards as a back-up so the idea that he will be a feature back increases his value significantly.

Clinton Portis on the other hand has had no shortage of carries over his career and led the NFL in carries last season (325). Surprisingly he is only entering his seventh year but he has a lot of mileage. Excluding the injury shortened 2006 season, he averaged 317 carries per year dating back to 2002 which puts him amongst the league leaders for that time period.  Portis only had three games in 2007 where he received less than 17 carries and actually had eight games with 20+ carries. But for all the carries Portis only had four games of 100+ yards (which was only one more than Barber) and his first one came in the eighth game of the season when the fantasy year was more than half over. He has also seen his yards per carry average dip every year since 2004 which some critics attribute to his body beginning to break down. On the positive side, he has scored 29 TD in the last three seasons. Portis also contributes in the passing game coming off of a season where he accumulated 47 receptions.

Age/Wear and Tear
Barber just turned 25 in June. Portis turns 27 the first week of September.

Barber has 562 combined touches in three years. Portis has 1,915 touches in six years.

Offenses
Barber plays in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL which means he spends more time on the field and finds himself with opportunities to score more frequently than other backs, increasing his value. 

Portis will be the focal point of new head coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast passing offense and should see a significant increase in receptions and receiving yards as a result. Overall though, the offense Portis plays in isn’t nearly as productive as the Cowboys and requires him to literally “carry” the offense, making him the focus of opposing defenses. For example in games 10-13 Portis carried the ball 74 times for 190 yards (2.5) and one TD. The Redskins were 1-3 in those games and averaged only 19 points per game.  

Offensive Lines
Cowboys 2007: Ranked 10^th overall in YPC (4.2), scored 14 rushing TD.
Barber runs behind the biggest offensive line in all of football, which gives him a tremendous edge late in games as opposing defensive lines are battered and fatigued. Dallas averaged 24 rushing attempts per game last year, 21^st in the NFL.

Redskins 2007: Ranked 22nd overall in YPC (3.8), scored 15 rushing TD.
Portis’ line doesn’t have the star power or overwhelming size that Dallas does, but the get the job done. Washington averaged 31 rushing attempts per game last year, 5^th most in the NFL.

Conclusion
Barber wins out for me based mainly on two factors; his lack of mileage and the offense he plays in. Also consider that he has yet to scrape his true potential having started only three games in three years until now. Additionally, the Cowboys should win a lot of games in the first three quarters, meaning Barber should get a ton of work in the latter half of games as the “Boys attempt to chew up clock and secure victories. None of these points are slights on Portis who is a true #1 stud fantasy RB, but Barber is still on the way up, whereas Portis may have reached his plateau and is more of an injury risk.