Fantasy Football - Is T.O. Good for Lee Evans?
by Paul Eide
Fantasy Football Director
6/23/09


The general consensus is that the Buffalo Bills addition of Terrell Owens makes Lee Evans a can't miss fantasy stud. On the outside it would appear to be the case, as opposing defenses can no longer double cover Evans over the top and take their changes with the likes of Josh Reed or James Hardy, which seemingly leads Evans toward greater statistical production. But if T.O. was necessarily this adept at clearing the way for his teammates (and considering how statistically productive T.O. is on his own) it would surely show up in the production of other receivers, wouldn’t it?

My idea is fairly simple, as I am a simple man; take the second leading receiver on the team the year that T.O. arrived and compare it to the previous year in which T.O. was playing elsewhere. The only period of time I excluded was his time in a 49ers uniform, as he didn’t abruptly join the team, instead he developed into the wide receiver we all know and sometimes (if he is on our fantasy team) love.


2004- T.O. joins the Eagles and leads the team to a Super Bowl appearance. The second leading receiver this year was actually Brian Westbrook. For comparison sake (WR vs. WR) the leading wide receiver was Todd Pinkston:

Brian Westbrook: 73 Rec, 703 Yards, 9.6 Avg, 6 TD
Todd Pinkston: 36 Rec, 676 Yards, 18.8 Avg, 1 TD

Compared to 2003 numbers w/o T.O.:
Brian Westbrook: 37 Rec, 332 Yards, 9.6 Avg, 4 TD
Todd Pinkston: 36 Rec, 575 Yards, 16.0 Avg, 2 TD

Interestingly, Westbrook’s productivity nearly doubled thanks in large part to the West Coast Offense using the running back as the final check down in the quarterback’s progression. Todd Pinkston’s (or ‘Stinkston’ to Eagles fans) yards increased by a moderate 101 yard total, his average increased, but his TD’s were cut in half.
Verdict? The #2 WR’s production was limited by T.O.’s arrival.

2006- T.O. is shipped off to Dallas where he produces immediately. The second leading receiver is Terry Glenn. The third leading receiver is tight end Jason Witten.

Terry Glenn: 70 Rec, 1,047 Yards, 15.0 Avg, 6 TD
Jason Witten: 64 Rec, 754 Yards, 11.8 Avg, 1 TD

Compared to 2005 numbers w/o T.O.:
Terry Glenn: 62 Rec, 1,136 Yards, 18.3 Avg, 7 TD
Jason Witten: 66 Rec, 757 Yards, 11.5 Avg, 6 TD
Verdict? Glenn had 8 more catches after T.O. arrived but his yards, Avg and TD were down. Witten stayed consistent, but his TD numbers were eroded by T.O., ever the goal line magnet. Whether he catches it or not, his Offensive Coordinators try to continually appease T.O. by throwing to him even when they are better suited running or using the tight end. With this in mind, it’s no wonder why Witten/Romo forced him out of town.

So what does this mean for Lee Evans? As a former owner over multiple seasons, all I can say is to own him is to hate him. He will follow up a half in which he has 180 yards and two scores with weeks of absolutely nothing. That said, Evans is coming off of his second 1,000+ season in five years as a pro. His TD production however has decreased almost each year; 9, 7, 8, 5, and 3 last year. To think he will get more after T.O. arrives is a mistake.

I think if anything Evans has a decrease in overall production, but has more big plays thanks to not constantly facing double teams. Evans has never had consistent hands so he is not going to catch the ball every time he is open so if you value Evans as anything more than a #3 WR or Flex option, you’ve either never owned Lee Evans before or you’re willing to tolerate the occasional zero for points that week.

Instead of him, how about Santonio Holmes, Desean Jackson or even Anthony Gonzalez? All three are playing with an upper echelon quarterback, while Evans has to put up with Trent Edwards who will inevitably have his ego fractured and then manipulated by T.O. so he can get the ball more. Yikes.

Consistency isn’t sexy but it’s a lot less stressful than owning Lee Evans in 2009.