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10 NFL Draft Values
by
Michael Abromowitz
NFL Draft Director
3/29/08
I compiled a list of
ten prospects that I see a real value compared to where they are
projected to be drafted. Value is a very difficult term to define in
NFL Draft terms. I like to think of it as a risk/reward
ratio. As you will read, prospects range from first round
possibilities to undrafted free agents.
Kenny
Phillips, S, Miami, Late 1st-Early 2nd Round
At one time projected as a top 10 prospect, but didn’t have a great
junior campaign and his 40 time was only 4.48. He also falls down
the first round because more of a premium is placed on cornerbacks
rather than safeties. Getting a player of Phillips’ caliber
anywhere after 20 I believe is a steal.
Dan
Connor, LB, Penn St., Late 1st-Early 2nd
Round
Connor seems to be reliving what Paul Posluszny did last year where his
stock went from top 10 pick to eventual early 2nd rounder.
Connor, like Posluszny, has the ability to play either ILB or
OLB. Unlike Posluszny, Connor was not coming back from a knee
injury. Will fall into the 20s or early 30s, not because of
talent, but teams’ needs and premium placed on linebackers.
Calais
Campbell, DE, Miami, 2nd Round
Every scout in the NFL is intrigued by his size of 6-8, 290 lbs, but
very few have been impressed with his ability to live up to
expectations. To Campbell’s credit, there were extremely high
expectations. Prior to the 2007 College Football season, he was
being compared to guys such as Mario Williams and Julius Peppers.
But after a poor junior season and poorer offseason, Campbell has
dropped from a potential top 5 draft pick to a 2nd rounder. But
that potential is still there, and I think after the first round,
drafting Campbell is a low risk/high reward opportunity. Many
college players are better NFL players for many reasons such as focus
on the game rather than college classes or having the mindset in the
NFL of having to perform, rather than taking god’s natural gifts and
using it with little intensity against lower competition as they do in
college. I think Campbell will be a better pro and is probably
more likely to become a superstar than Phillip Merling and Derrick
Harvey. But he is also more likely to bust out. |
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Jamaal
Charles, RB, Texas, 2nd Round
This guy is too good to be a 2nd round talent. The only reason
Charles could drop into the 2nd round is because of the strong depth at
running back in the NFL Draft. If Charles would have stayed in
college, he would be the top 2009 NFL Draft running back
prospect. Running a 4.38 40 only showed more proof that this guy
is for real if his 1,619 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 6.3 yards
per carry was not proof enough. I will be rooting for Charles on
draft day, but at the same time be bitter toward aggressive agents who
persuade these kids to leave school early only for them to sacrifice
millions of dollars.
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt, 3rd Round
Another junior prospect who declared because he was talented enough to
play in the NFL, but stock also drops because talent at the receiver
position. Bennett, who is 6-0, didn’t help his stock when he ran
a
4.48 speed. But I prefer to look at the statistics as much as the
measurables. Bennett, is a three-time All-Southeastern selection
and
last year caught 75 passes for 830 yards and 5 touchdowns. He
holds
the SEC receiving record with 236 receptions. He makes catches
and is
a solid receiver. Not flashy, but I think he can be a very solid
receiver, and a steal in the third round.
Owen
Schmitt, FB, West Virginia, 4th Round
The top fullbacks in this draft usually go no earlier than the 4th
round, so in reality the 4th round is really not a steal. But,
having
the chance to take a guy who can start from day 1, be a Pro Bowl
caliber fullback for the next 10 years, and not only be a devastated
blocker for a 1,000 yard rusher, but contribute on the ground is
phenomenal value. I don’t like to use phrases like “least likely
to
bust”, but Schmitt probably one of the least risky prospects in the
draft.
Barry
Richardson, OT, Clemson – late 4th to early 6th Round
Richardson probably is suffering from Brian Brohm syndrome, where his
stock has dropped after deciding to stay in college. Richardson
has
great size at 6-7, 338 lbs. and was a four year starter for Clemson,
but many analysts are saying “lacks the intensity.” Well for
Richardson that is good news because that’s one weakness that he can
improve on, unlike height and a vast change in 40 speed. If
Richardson
has that light bulb come on in his head and plays like the giant beast
that he can, then he will be a phenomenal steal. Physically,
Richardson is everything you want from an offensive tackle.
Kevin
O’Connell, QB, San Diego St. – 5th Round
O’Connell is not one of those prospects that fall due to poor
measurables. He measures in at 6-5, 225 lbs, and 4.61
speed. He
actually led San Diego St. in rushing last season. Even with his
rushing stats, he still posted 3,063 passing yards. He is
projected in
the 5th primarily because he is still somewhat raw and not as NFL ready
as most prospects. O’Connell’s ceiling may be one of the highest
of
any quarterbacks in the draft. If given 2 years of grooming,
could be
a real steal. A valuable investment for a team with a veteran
quarterback like the New Orleans Saints or Seattle Seahawks.
Orlando
Scandrick, CB, Boise St. – 5th Round
Scandrick probably got caught up with all the hoopla of teammate Ryan
Clady declaring for the draft that he decided to also declare.
Scandrick though has been impressive this offseason with great workouts
highlighted by his 4.32 40. He also should be valuable on
special
teams where last season he blocked 4 kicks on special teams and with
his speed could also be a kick returner. Still somewhat
inconsistent,
plays more on natural speed, but could be a true shutdown corner in
this league. Great value.
J
Leman, ILB, Illinois – 7th Round to Free Agent
Leman probably didn’t help his stock with his recent ankle
surgery.
Leman, by many analysts, is classified as one of those college players
that do well in college, but lack the ideal measurements and physical
skills to excel at the NFL level. As the optimist and a fan of
Leman,
I like to think “then what is the risk?” Having the chance to
draft a
guy who had 407 career tackles, decent size, and has the motor and work
ethic that Leman has in the 7th round I believe is very little risk
whatsoever. I do actually think Leman can not only play in the
NFL,
but become a very solid starter.
Michael
Abromowitz's 2008 NFL Mock
Draft
Gregory Cox's 2008
NFL Mock Draft
Paul Eide's 2008 NFL
Mock Draft
Jared
Donnelly's 2008 NFL Mock
Draft
Joey Bures' 2008 NFL Mock Draft
Mock
Draft Database
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