If familiarity breeds contempt, this weekend’s playoff games should be very heated. Over the past 15 months we have seen all these pairings take place at least once although mostly not on the same field. The teams playing on Saturday met each other late last season. Seattle beat Green Bay 34-24 at Qwest Field when the teams appeared to be heading in opposite directions. New England topped Jacksonville 24-21 in Florida. On Sunday there will be a rematch of San Diego’s 23-21 upset of Indianapolis, but this time it will be played indoors. Topping it all off, fittingly, will be the 92^nd meeting between the Giants and Cowboys, but the first in a playoff setting. Dallas won the home tilt 45-35 on opening day and at the Meadowlands 31-20 in midseason. One thing we can expect to see is competitive football because when teams have met recently their strengths can be taken away more easily. 

Seattle (11-6) @ Green Bay (13-3): The last time the Seahawks were on this field in the playoffs Al Harris was running down the sideline with a game winning interception return, ruining Matt Hasselbeck’s guarantee during the overtime coin flip. It was one of those moments we rarely see in professional sports where a player lets loose. Unfortunately it didn’t work out for Seattle although they have been one of the most successful teams in the NFC over the last five years.

This will technically be the fifth meeting between Hasselbeck and Favre, who he spent the first three season of his career backing up. Green Bay won all three played at Lambeau although in one Seattle pulled their starters preparing for what would be a Super Bowl run. Seattle’s victory last year came at Qwest Field. Again, when you meet five times over five seasons there is a familiarity that can impact the result. The Packers probably have an advantage in this regard because Holmgren has been in charge of the Seahawks that entire time while McCarthy is in just his second season at Green Bay.

One thing we can be certain of is that this will not resemble their last meeting. In that one Shaun Alexander ran 40 times for 201 yards against a beleaguered defense. It saved Hasselbeck who completed just 17/36 passes for 157 yards with 3 interceptions although his 3 touchdown passes over the final quarter and a half secured the 34-24 victory. Favre had 266 yards passing and 3 interceptions of his own while the running game was nonexistent. This time he has to continue his best season since 2004 by beating the team holding opponents to a 73.0 QB rating, second lowest in the NFL. Last week they controlled Todd Collins for the most part, but taking that act on the road against a future first ballot Hall of Fame entrant.

When Seattle throws the ball it will also be strength against strength, weather permitting. Hasselbeck is also in the midst of a great season, in his case the best of his career. Green Bay’s defense ranks #6 in QB rating allowed (75.6). They have the second lowest completion percentage against (55.2) slightly ahead of Seattle’s unit (58.6). The Seahawks are fourth in sacks (45) although the Packers aren’t far behind (36). The sum total of this is that neither team can hope to make a living passing the football. Weather should be a factor and scoring will likely be at a premium.

The similarities of these teams don’t end there. They are tied for #10 in average yards per rush allowed (3.9) with yards per game almost identical at 102.8 for Seattle and 102.9 for Green Bay. The big difference is Seattle giving up 16 touchdowns rushing to Green Bay’s 6. Ironically, the Packers now have the better rushing offense thanks to Ryan Grant. They don’t average more yards per game, but are #11 in average rush (4.1) to Seattle’s mark (3.8) which is the sixth lowest in the NFL. Shaun Alexander is almost running on empty after last week’s 15 carries for 46 yards. He can’t take this team on his shoulders. On the other hand Ryan Grant averaged 5.1 yards per carry this season. His numbers during the nine game stretch when he carried the full load extrapolate to 1,550 yards for a full season. Over that span he averaged at least 4.4 yards per rush in seven of nine games. He is the difference maker here and there will be no overtime necessary: Green Bay 27, Seattle 16

Jacksonville (12-5) @ New England (16-0): Every season there is a dark horse, trendy pick to pull an upset and the Jaguars are that team this year. However, a lot of those people aren’t taking the last meeting into consideration. Jacksonville was led by Garrard on November 27, 2006 and came in at 8-6 fighting for a wild card berth. He was sharp at 17/23 with 195 yards passing, a touchdown and no turnovers. In Taylor’s absence Jones-Drew ran for 131 yards, but they still lost 24-21. Brady’s three leading receivers that day were two tight ends and Troy Brown. With Thomas injured, Graham in Denver and Brown all but retired this trio has 1 reception this season. This time he brings Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte’ Stallworth to the party. All they have done is catch 256 balls for 3,365 yards and 34 touchdowns. To put that in perspective their yardage eclipsed 19 other entire teams and only the Cowboys had more receiving touchdowns as a team. I’d say they are improved.

The Jaguars have a capable secondary and ironically will be hoping the weather can help their cause on the road. They rank seventh in QB rating allowed (76.1) and fourth in interceptions (20). New England’s defense is not far behind in either department (78.1, 19) and hopes to ruin the efficiency of Garrard. The Jaguars were tied for third in QB rating offensively (97.1) thanks to just 8 interceptions, tied for the NFL low. The Patriots had 9. If there is going to be an upset it won’t because of Jacksonville striking for deep plays down the field or preventing New England from consistently moving the chains.

One huge misconception this season is that the Patriots never run the football and can’t do it effectively. They were ninth in total rushing attempts and eleventh in average per carry (4.1). Maroney was banged up and missed three games, but still had 835 yards on the season and a 4.5 average. Over two seasons he has solid production with 360 carries for 1,580 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Jaguars are in the middle of pack for run defense with Stroud out and Henderson banged up at the tackle spots. Grady Jackson might have to be their savior if the conditions force a lot of rushing.

Obviously the Jaguars want to win this game by smashing the Patriots right in the mouth on the ground. Only five teams allowed more yards per rush than New England (4.4) but just two teams gave up fewer rushing touchdowns (7). When it matters, they can stop the run. Jacksonville’s backfield of Taylor and Jones-Drew helped them finish third in yards per carry (4.6) and if they get anywhere close to that number they will be playing for a shot at the Super Bowl next week. Taylor finally has his Pro Bowl spot after Willie Parker’s injury and Jones-Drew played like a star in his first playoff game last week in Pittsburgh. I like their chances if they get going. It was also crucial for Garrard to get away with a poor day passing the ball going 9/21 with a pair of interceptions.

Before anyone gets carried away, this is still Tom Brady leading a potent offense supported by a well designed defense on a field where they simply dominate. This was their third 8-0 regular season at home over the past five years. It doesn’t look like the weather will adversely affect what New England likes to do which is attack relentlessly. Their mission is not over at 16-0 because they haven’t yet matched the 1972 Dolphins, only a pair of Chicago teams that failed to win it all after perfect regular seasons: New England 30, Jacksonville 17

San Diego (12-5) @ Indianapolis (13-3): Despite going 26-8 over the past two seasons no one really respects how dangerous these Chargers can be. I believe their early season woes, notably a 1-3 start, can be largely attributed to turnovers in their coaching staff. Once they got settled in they finished 10-2 including eight wins by at least two touchdowns. For comparison’s sake, New England won only three of their final eight by that much. Their turning point came when they entered a meeting with Indianapolis at 4-4. The Colts had just lost their grudge match with New England and were inexplicably erratic during a 23-21 loss.

I think we can learn a few things from that meeting. San Diego won the game with special teams thanks to touchdowns on kickoff and punt returns helping them to a 23-0 lead. Indianapolis nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback despite 6 Manning interceptions only to have Vinatieri miss an easy field goal with 91 seconds remaining. The Colts were 10/19 on third down conversions and had a 386-177 advantage in total yardage. Rivers was bad, completing 13/24 passes for 104 yards and two interceptions while leading no touchdown drives. If these teams play mostly the same way this time around Indianapolis will probably win by 21 points because in the playoffs Manning won’t implode against this defense and their special teams can’t be that bad again.

Last week San Diego shook off the nerves of a 6-0 halftime deficit and totally controlled the second half of their win over Tennessee. The Titans had the ball four times after intermission and held it for just 8:05. They actually did it by passing the ball because Tomlinson and Rivers combined for just 70 yards on 30 carries (2.33 average). Rivers went 19/30 for 292 yards. Now he faces a defense ranked third in QB rating allowed (73.3) and second in interceptions (22). I said last week they want to limit the number of passes thrown by Rivers to win. Last week they didn’t and still won. This week might have to be the same recipe for success because Indianapolis ranks fourth in yards per carry allowed (3.8).

For not getting much attention these Colts can play some defense. No team scored more than 25 points on them all season including the Patriots (24). Nine teams failed to top 16 points against them. Unlike seasons past, now Indianapolis can win games without Peyton Manning’s offense scoring 30+. In fact they did it 5 times this season. This week Manning has to shake off his disastrous performance the last time he met the Chargers and take what he can get against a unit leading the NFL in opposing QB rating (70.0) and interceptions (30) with the fifth most sacks (42). Manning went down 21 times this season, his highest total since 2002 but still a very low number. However, he could be forced into some bad throws as he was at Qualcomm.

The final factor is the Indianapolis running game. They suffered what was thought to be a big loss when Dominic Rhodes left in free agency. He played a big role in their Super Bowl win. Instead Kenton Keith had a more efficient, equally productive season. Keith finished with 533 yards and a 4.4 average compared to Rhodes (641, 3.4). The Colts have the sixth lowest rushing average (3.8) but Addai and Keith’s combined average is much higher (4.2). Addai is also well rested after being used sparingly in meaningless games down the stretch and spending last week off on the bye. They should be able to run the ball much better this time around and on their field will get off to a better start. This week the Chargers won’t recover and Rivers will be the guy throwing interceptions: Indianapolis 28, San Diego 19

NY Giants (11-6) @ Dallas (13-3): Everyone gets ready for a big game differently. Apparently Mexico with Jessica Simpson is what Tony Romo hopes will help him avoid any more playoff flubs. Last year he appeared free and loose at Seattle until fumbling the snap on what should have been the game winning field goal. Now he does that Dallas greats Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman never did in their careers, face New York in a playoff game. Yep, after 91 regular season meetings they finally hook up in a do or die situation.

Our theme of familiarity making the going tough on both teams shined through in the second meetings between these teams. The first time was a 45-34 barnburner won by Dallas. Take two touchdowns each off the board in the rematch, a 31-20 Cowboy victory. The total yards dropped from 916 to 623. Their combined average rush dropped from 5.12 to 3.69. Both quarterbacks were well over 300 yards in the opener, but averaged 242 in the replay. The one constant was Romo who had 4 touchdown passes in each victory.

The point is that these teams know their opponent very well. Dallas could be without star receiver Terrell Owens and hopes Terry Glenn can lessen his loss if he can’t play. New York has lost their third leading receiver in tight end Jeremy Shockey, but rookie Kevin Boss has had some big receptions in relief. At this point in the season most teams are banged up and often too much is made of one player being out. Dallas is at home trying to shake off a decade without a playoff win. Their defense will be fired up.

New York has been great on the road winning eight in a row. Just like last week then Pittsburgh had gone 7-1 at home with their only loss being the Jacksonville the Giants are 8-1 having only lost in Dallas. For the Manning family to get a sweep it will take a nearly perfect effort. Between the first two meetings they had just 3 turnovers, 6 sacks taken and 115 yards of penalties. Even without hurting their own cause they still lost by 11 and 10 points respectively. I loved their gritty performance the past two weeks, but the Cowboys are the more talented team: Dallas 24, NY Giants 20