San Francisco (2-5) @ Atlanta (1-6): One of these teams is going to stop the bleeding unless this one winds up in a 0-0 tie. The Falcons have lost three in a row and are coming off a bye week when perhaps they addressed some of their infighting. Arguably their best player on offense and defense can’t get along with the head coach. The ticket booth has suffered as well with the possibility as this is typed for their 56 game sellout streak to be snapped, a streak that covers the entire career of Michael Vick. Now in comes San Francisco who has lost 5 in a row since a promising 2-0 start. The 49ers got a boost from getting their starting quarterback Alex Smith back in the lineup last week, but mustered only 260 total yards in a 31-10 home loss to New Orleans. That was nearly 40 yards over the season average for their inept offense. In this game I expect them to roll out Frank Gore against a soft Falcon run defense. Maybe the off week opened up Atlanta’s eyes to start using Jerious Norwood a little more in their own running game. He is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, but has just 5-9 carries in each game as they continue to throw Warrick Dunn (3.1 average) out there despite a season high of 62 yards. The team with the better running game will probably win. Neither quarterback really has the targets to take over this one. Star tight end Crumpler might be missing for Atlanta while Darrell Jackson looks to be out for San Francisco. Neither offense can afford to be short handed. I like Frank Gore to finally have a big game and Vernon Davis to make enough plays for the visitors to pull this one out: San Francisco 23, Atlanta 19

Denver (3-4) @ Detroit (5-2): I can never figure out the Broncos. A team with the #7 ranked total offense shouldn’t have to be counting on Elam field goals to win games or send them into overtime. This week they will have to match scores with the Lions who have been in a bit of a funk themselves with 3, 23 and 16 points their last three games. After being traded to the Broncos will Dre’ Bly be missing the other sideline in this one? As amazing at that sounds, he might be after the final gun. Along with fellow star corner Bailey he is banged up and perhaps bruised in the ego after allowing the bomb touchdown in overtime to lose the Monday night game. Speaking of which, Denver travels on a short week. Their secondary is going to be under fire and safety John Lynch is also a question mark. The Lions send four receivers who can make plays. To wit, rookie Calvin Johnson is fourth on the team in receptions (15) and yards (273). Kitna didn’t throw a touchdown pass in October, but he shook off games of 106 and 147 passing yards to go 24/35 for 268 yards in a win at Chicago. Kevin Jones has returned to form running the ball with his 105 yard effort last week including a 34 yard rumble. He will go up against the #32 ranked run defense, and I’m starting to find it hard to figure out how Denver even contends in this game in their current condition much less wins. They have spent most of the first half of the season at home with this being just their third road game. The Lions are always much better at home and this is no exception. Without Walker at receiver they will struggle to match scoring drives: Detroit 31, Denver 16

Green Bay (6-1) @ Kansas City (4-3): It might not be a Super Bowl preview, but it will be a review of the first ever big game. No, Brett Favre wasn’t quarterbacking the Packers then, it just seems like he has played forever. Prior to last week’s games I was asked how far this team could go and I questioned their ability to win a playoff game without a running back. Fans were longing for the days of Ahman Green, Dorsey Levens, Edgar Bennett and even Vince Workman. Then Ryan Grant came out of nowhere to run the ball 28 times for 131 yards in Denver. That one game put him 72 yards away from the team lead for the season, but bear in mind it was against the worst run defense in the NFL. Now he faces a middle of the pack unit in even more hostile territory at Arrowhead Stadium. If the Chiefs are going to stay competitive they will do it by containing Favre. Only three teams have allowed fewer touchdown passes (6) and along with the Green Bay secondary they are among the top 10 in lowest completion percentage by opposing quarterbacks. The trouble for the home team will be moving the ball. Huard has been floundering with 6 touchdowns against 7 interceptions and 210 yards per game. Larry Johnson appears to have shaken off a poor start with consecutive games over 110 yards rushing, but Green Bay’s defensive line has held up well this season. Both teams have momentum with wins in their past two games, but the Packers are traveling (again) on a short week while the Chiefs are home following their bye week. Green Bay has yet to lose a road game (3-0) and look for their first six game road winning streak since the team that beats these Chiefs in the aforementioned Super Bowl I. It’s a toss up really, and while I went with Favre last week in Denver this time he isn’t under the lights and there is a running back on the other side able to neutralize him. I like the Chiefs to make some plays on defense to pull it out: Kansas City 19, Green Bay 17

San Diego (4-3) @ Minnesota (2-5): If you ignore September the Chargers are looking like the Patriots and Colts. They rolled to wins of 41-3, 28-14 and 35-10 in October and look to continue their winning ways as the calendar turns. The Vikings are just trying to survive the season. Adrian Peterson is a lock for rookie of the year barring injury, and he has been the reason they are staying in games. Twice they have lost by a field goal, twice more by a touchdown and their worst defeat was by 10. To be fair they are also doing it with a stout run defense leading the NFL with a 2.9 yard average allowed. Other than Larry Johnson and the Dallas backfield they really haven’t been tested yet and Ladanian Tomlinson certainly presents a challenge. He has gotten into MVP form over the last four games with 487 yards rushing and another 112 receiving. Newcomer Chris Chambers made an impact in his first start catching a touchdown pass. He will help them punish the NFL’s worst pass defense in the NFL. The Vikings aren’t there solely based on being attacked so much when teams can’t run either. They are towards the bottom in average per attempt and have the third highest completion percentage allowed (67.4). Rivers should be able to spread the ball around the Gates, Jackson, Tomlinson and Chambers at will. Minnesota counters with their dynamic rookie runner, but against a front 7 allowing just 3.6 yards per carry (#4) themselves. They can also gamble on defense knowing Tarvaris Jackson (if healthy) or Kelly Holcomb can’t really hurt them down the field. Bobby Wade is leading this team in receptions and yards. Enough said: San Diego 24, Minnesota 13

Jacksonville (5-2) @ New Orleans (3-4): In a wild season the Jaguars are one of six NFL teams who have gone 3-0 or better on the road. Meanwhile 11 teams have a losing home record including the Saints (1-2). Last week Jacksonville did it without leaving their state, but also without their starting quarterback. Quinn Gray stepped in and only completed 7 passes. He won the game by not turning it over, taking just 2 sacks and feeding it to his backfield of Jones-Drew and Taylor (34 carries for 116 yards) during a 24-23 win at Tampa Bay. That recipe won’t work in this game. The Saints allow just 3.6 yards per carry (#4) so Gray will need to make some plays. Jacksonville suffered a blow to their run defense when Marcus Stroud tested positive for a banned substance. His status is uncertain, and newly signed Grady Jackson won’t be able to help them this week. Reggie Bush has been off to a slow start running the ball. This might be the opening he has been looking for to record his first 100 yard rushing game of the season and second in 26 games of his young career. His biggest impact is still out of the backfield with 147 receptions or 5.65 per start including the playoffs. Drew Brees can certainly hurt the Jaguars through the air down the field with Marques Colston and the resurgent David Patten who has been a big play threat with 17.1 yards per reception. Jacksonville has a good secondary and can get after the passer, but in their previous road wins they didn’t face really dynamic offensive teams. The Saints are turning the corner having scored 28, 22 and 31 during their three game winning streak: New Orleans 26, Jacksonville 17

Washington (4-3) @ NY Jets (1-7): New York is doing their usual odd year thing, having gone 4-12 (2005) and 6-10 (2003) the last two times the calendar ended with an odd number. The last three times it has been even they went to the playoffs so is this a trend? Whatever it is, head coach Eric Mangini wants to shake things up so he is throwing Kellen Clemens in at quarterback. He started a loss at Baltimore, throwing for 260 yards in the process. Pennington has reached that number only 5 times in his past 21 regular season starts. A better solution might be feeding Thomas Jones more. In the three games when he has over 20 carries his rushing average is 4.21, otherwise it dips to 3.38. The Redskins allow only 3.7 yards per carry though (#7) and are the only team in the NFL that has given up just a single run past 20 yards so it will be hard to feed him that much. When New York throws they might not have Coles at receiver, but Washington won’t have Rogers at corner after he was ruled out for the season. That exchange favors the Redskins because the Jets turn to McCareins while the Redskins just plug in deposed starter Fred Smoot into a talented secondary. When Washington has the ball they will look to run right at a weak defense. Portis has yet to break 100 yards this season, but that could change here. They should give Jason Campbell a break after he was badgered into 3 fumbles last week against the Patriots. Their receivers have pretty much taken the season off with 0 touchdown receptions as tight end Chris Cooley (5) and fullback Mike Sellers (1) have done all the scoring through the air. Is it any wonder they took Keenan McCardell off the couch? Defense rules this game and the Redskins should win the field position battle enough to win: Washington 17, NY Jets 13

Arizona (3-4) @ Tampa Bay (4-4): The bye week has given Kurt Warner an opportunity to deal with his injured left elbow. Even if he fails to go the Bucs might not be able to take advantage. After all they just lost to a Jacksonville team led by Quinn Gray. They held the Jaguars to 219 total yards, but Garcia threw 3 interceptions. Two of them were in Jacksonville territory and the third went for a pick six. Eventually he had to make some mistakes, and in the past two weeks he has 5 turnovers after totaling 0 in his opening six starts. Arguably both of these guys should be retired. Garcia is 37, Warner is 36 and fans would have loved to see this one in 2001 when they were NFC West rivals with the 49ers and Rams respectively. That year they combined for 8,368 yards passing with 68 touchdowns. They can’t carry a team like that now. Arizona has Edgerrin James to balance the offense, but even with seven games of 21+ carries he has been over 100 yards just once. Tampa Bay has lost their best two running backs are hurt. Earnest Graham answered the bell these past two weeks though with 154 yards rushing and another 111 receiving. Both of these defenses can play. Even if the Bucs have more tradition, they are #8 overall while the Cardinals are #10. It should be a low scoring game decided by turnovers. Arizona has been very competitive on the road despite a 1-3 record. Their losses are by 3, 3 and 2 points. After opening with two blowouts at home Tampa Bay has nosed past Tennessee 13-10 and lost to Jacksonville. I think the Bucs get the better quarterback play to pull out an ugly win: Tampa Bay 18, Arizona 13

Carolina (4-3) @ Tennessee (5-2): The Panthers are on the road where they have had all of their success this season. They also appear to be looking at David Carr playing quarterback. Among players with more than 10 passes thrown, only Quinn Gray can’t beat Carr’s 5.0 yards per attempt average. He is unable to get the ball down the field to Steve Smith and now faces a defense with 11 interceptions on the season, second most in the NFL. Then they have the NFL’s #1 run defense (64.3 yards per game) to deal with. Foster and Williams have had a good season running the ball (769 yards, 3 TD) but they will face a stacked line this week. The Titans are making a killing on the ground themselves, even with Chris Brown out. They just plugged in another Chris, rookie Chris Henry, and keep moving the chains. Vince Young was a shadow of himself in his return to the lineup, but he has another week to heal and if he throws more than 15 passes here I’ll be surprised. In three home games the Titans have allowed only 3 touchdowns, two of them to the Colts. They should control this game from the outset with their defense and running game. The only shot the Panthers have is if Steve Smith makes some huge catches down the field. In four of his starts this year his long receptions are 10, 15, 17 and 12. Not coincidentally those are the four games in which David Carr has appeared: Tennessee 27, Carolina 13

Seattle (4-3) @ Cleveland (4-3): Maybe the Browns knew something when they traded Charlie Frye to the Seahawks after the opening weekend. Derek Anderson is a top 10 quarterback with 17 touchdown passes, trailing only some guy named Tom Brady. If their prescience had stretched a few months earlier they might have just given him a contract extension instead of drafting Brady Quinn. The only games he has lost as a starter were on the road in New England and Oakland, the latter of which came as a result of a missed field goal on the final play. Like their Ohio neighbors, the problem has been stopping their opponents. No team has allowed more yards per game (410.1) and only two let opponents score more points. The Seahawks come in off their bye week with an inconsistent offense. They looked great when last seen in San Francisco, a 33-6 win. However, Shaun Alexander needs to be told he isn’t on the Madden cover again. His last three games have produced 107 yards rushing on 44 carries and he has not scored a touchdown in his last five games. He could get well against the Browns who allow 4.7 yards per carry (third most in NFL). Hasselbeck has posted strong yardage numbers and made due without his full complement of receivers and goes up against a Cleveland team that has given up an NFL high 18 touchdown passes. I think the Seahawks can do enough on defense to stop the Browns occasionally. Their offense should move the ball regularly. Under Anderson Cleveland averages 36.3 points scored at home, but they have given up 29.7 in those games. Seattle hasn’t been on the road in a month, but with a week to prepare I like them: Seattle 31, Cleveland 28 (OT)

New England (8-0) @ Indianapolis (7-0): It will probably be cheaper to get into a Hannah Montana concert than to be a part of this historic midseason Super Bowl event. This game is so big people in Oakland might actually be glad the Raiders are blacked out. Everyone agrees these teams will meet again in the AFC Championship. The winner here will get to host that game unless they lose two more games. No one believes that will happen. Indianapolis has won three straight after Brady’s Patriots won the first six in the series between star quarterbacks. All of that was before New England raided the free agent market. Statistics can pretty much be thrown out the window because both teams are strong in all areas. In fact, they are both in the top 6 for all the major categories on offense and defense. The exception is New England’s rushing offense (#8) against, ironically, the Indianapolis rushing defense (#13). Everyone knows the Patriots have no interest in running the ball. Brady wants his 50 touchdown passes to break Manning’s record. It’s too bad Peyton essentially sat in the 2004 season finale, but I digress. The Colts don’t really have a chance here if you ask most pundits. Their Super Bowl trophy is just on hold for New England to take back. I tend to agree until the Pats show a weakness. One thing I can say is that they have yet to beat a good AFC team. Beating up on their division of losers proves nothing, and neither does beating the Ohio teams. Their win over San Diego came before the Chargers woke up. They were adjusting to a new coaching staff. The Colts have taken down Jacksonville and Tennessee on the road, both 5-2 teams in the superior conference. Adding in home field advantage is this enough for them to get it done? I want to think so, but the Pats are an irresistible force: New England 31, Indianapolis 24

Houston (3-5) @ Oakland (2-5): If you live in the Houston area I suggest a satellite dish or a trip to the local bar so you can avoid having to sit through this mess. The Texans have come apart with injuries at quarterback, running back and wide receiver following a promising 2-0 start. Since then their only win is 22-19 over winless Miami. Sage Rosenfels will start and he has been all over the place with 6 touchdowns and 6 turnovers in one start and two relief appearances the past three weeks. Andre Johnson likely won’t be available to make the big plays at receiver while Ahman Green could start against a porous run defense. That Oakland front line just lost Tommy Kelly at end and will start rookie Jay Richardson, a fifth round pick out of Ohio State. Another change to the lineup comes at quarterback where Josh McCown replaces an erratic Daunte Culpepper. The biggest issue with Culpepper has been mobility and holding the football. McCown had a huge opener despite losing to his former team Detroit, then barely threw the ball I his next two starts, a loss to Denver and a win over Cleveland. Perhaps the biggest story is whether or not the #30 run offense can get well against the #30 run defense. Oakland always plays better at home, especially on defense. They held Kansas City to 12 two weeks ago and I see this as a comparable offense. The Texans have been blown out in the their last two road games by 20+ points and prior to that lost by 10 at hopeless Atlanta. Their defense isn’t good enough to control a Raider attack that should open up with McCown at the helm: Oakland 24, Houston 14

Dallas (6-1) @ Philadelphia (3-4): After the earlier Colts-Patriots battle this will seem anti-climatic by comparison, but it is a big game for the Cowboys on many levels. On national television Romo might feel some pressure to justify his new contract. In the process he can bury the last place Eagles in the NFC East division race. Losing this game would give the Eagles new life and create potentially a four team battle. Dallas wants nothing to do with that. The cool evening might make it hard for both teams to do a lot in the air. They are tied for fifth defensively allowing opponents to complete just 58% of their passes. Dallas allows more touchdowns (11-6) but also has more interceptions (10-5). The possible return of Dawkins to Philly’s lineup could impact those numbers. Running the ball might not be easy either. Dallas is tied for fourth in lowest rushing average allowed (3.6) while Philadelphia is seventh (3.7). This one could be a low scoring affair even if the Cowboys are averaging 32 points on the road. The Eagles have allowed 20, 21 and 19 at home where they are just 1-2. This is the national spotlight though so I expect them to step up. When the Cowboys turn to Barber more in their backfield you can expect this offense to take it up a level. Until then they have to watch how big of an impact Westbrook can make in a game. This week it will only make the game close: Dallas 23, Philadelphia 20

Baltimore (4-3) @ Pittsburgh (5-2): It is crowded in the AFC North and Cincinnati surprisingly isn’t part of the equation. The Steelers can take a huge step forward towards a division title by winning this game coupled with Seattle beating Cleveland the day before they hit the field. Only one team has failed to allow 100 points this season and it isn’t the Ravens. Pittsburgh’s #1 defense and #4 offense have been overshadowed by the Colts and Patriots, but they are a dangerous team in the AFC. They are rushing for an NFL best 159.1 yards per game while allowing just 77.4. The Baltimore run defense is even better (71.9) and their overall defense is #2 behind the Steelers. However, their offense is a lot weaker, sitting in the middle of the pack for rushing, passing and total offense. They are #25 in scoring so their biggest problem is finishing drives. It isn’t hard to see why when their biggest passing threat is 33 year old veteran Derrick Mason and their lead rusher Willis McGahee has lacked touchdown punch since his rookie season. The Steelers on the other hand have Holmes and Ward fully healthy at receiver with Parker and Davenport acting as a solid backfield tandem. Roethlisberger has 15 touchdown passes, three away from his career high set last year and on pace for 34. If not for Brady’s antics he might be receiving MVP love. He faces a Baltimore defense allowing an NFL low 56.7% of passes to be completed against them, but Pittsburgh is not far behind at 57.8% (#4). The difference again is offense because Kyle Boller on the road is a lot less capable of beating a good defense than Big Ben at home. A lot of Willie Parker in the open field off screens and tough catches by Ward should be the difference: Pittsburgh 19, Baltimore 13