NFL Predictions and Analysis:  Thanksgiving Day
By Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
11/20/07

The Thanksgiving Day tradition started way back in 1920 when six games were played. On that day six teams failed to score including a scoreless contest between Elyria and Columbus. I don’t think they are around anymore although the 49ers can commiserate. In 1923 the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers each hosted games, winning by shutout no less. The Bears beat their rival Chicago Cardinals in that one. In 1926 the New York Giants first appeared, but it was on the road as they beat the Brooklyn Lions – in a shutout 17-0. Then in 1934 the Detroit Lions hosted their first game, a 19-16 loss to the Bears. The Dallas Cowboys first hosted in 1966 when they beat the Cleveland Browns 1966. Enough history, let’s talk 2007 and suffice it to say you should plan on watching football early and eating late.

Green Bay (9-1) @ Detroit (6-4): No one expected the Packers to be in position to essentially seal the NFC North on Thanksgiving. With a four game lead they would then just need to beat the Lions again on their frozen field December 30th to secure the title. Sweeping Detroit to win a division title? If you had told Favre he’d be in that position he would take it and run, just not very fast because the guy’s old. His opposite number Kitna might be feeling the pressure of his 10 win prediction. In the wake of their second consecutive loss he got in a war of words with Michael Strahan. I like his fire, but throw some touchdown passes. He has just five in his last six games while the team is 3-3. The yardage has been there with 298 yards on average in the last month. Green Bay’s pass defense has been pretty good, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 78.7 rating (#12 in the NFL). However, many of these teams had a much weaker passing attack. The Lions will come at them four wide all afternoon. They average 36.5 passes a game and I expect well over 40 in this one. Since the Packers have had issues running the ball it could be an aerial show. Favre’s dome struggles are long gone. His last three indoors have all produced 340+ yards passing with a completion percentage of 65.9%, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has won his last four air conditioned games. While everyone is stuffing their face, the defenses in this game will see their numbers get fat in a shootout. Green Bay can run more now that Ryan Grant has emerged with 19+ carries in each of their last four games, but the Lions can and will contain him. Only one team has more interceptions than Detroit’s 15 which could produce a game changing play. Thanksgiving Day brings a lot of emotion to this team although they have lost three in a row and four of their past five on turkey day. The last win was 22-14 in 2003 over these Packers. This will be an inspired win: Detroit 30, Green Bay 24

NY Jets (2-8) @ Dallas (9-1): It has been over two decades since New York has played on Thanksgiving, a 31-20 loss to Detroit in 1985. It will be their third appearance having lost again to the Lions back in 1973. The host Cowboys are a mortal 7-7 since 1993. Romo certainly didn’t play like a turkey last year, throwing for 306 yards and 5 touchdowns on 22/29 passing. Having thrown 8 touchdowns total the prior six times he hit the field this was clearly his breakout performance for the nation to see. It wound up being his only 3+ TD effort that season, something he has already accomplished five times this season including his past three games. The Jets simply can’t stop him or the Dallas offense. They have allowed the third highest QB rating (93.7) and seventh highest completion percentage (64.9%). Last week’s win over Pittsburgh was the product of stuffing the run. They were rested off the bye and played an inspired game in front of their fans. This is a short week on the road. The Jets will be tired and had 2-8 won’t have much to fight for once they fall behind. If the Cowboys want to run, New York has allowed 4.3 yards per rush, eighth highest in the NFL. Barber has been bottled up a bit lately, but combined with Jones they provide offensive balance. This team can come out you with multiple running backs plus the best wide receiver/tight end combination in the NFC. This isn’t a matter of winning. It is how much the Cowboys decide to pour it on. They will not take New York lightly after they beat Pittsburgh. It should be a first quarter knockout and there won’t be a need to eat in front of the television: Dallas 31, NY Jets 13

Indianapolis (8-2) @ Atlanta (3-7): This was supposed to be a battle of quarterbacks taken #1 overall. Instead Vick turned out to be a turkey and will watch the game from a jail cell after turning himself in to authorities as he faces dog fighting charges. With the addition of a third Thanksgiving Day game we get two teams who usually don’t play on this day right? Not exactly because the Colts just whooped Detroit 41-9 in 2004 while the Falcons took their turn with a 27-7 win over the Lions in 2005. Indianapolis hadn’t appeared on Thanksgiving prior to that since tying Detroit 24-24 when they hailed from Baltimore, their only other appearance. The Falcons had never appeared previously and obviously will be hosting for the first time. Well, maybe it’s not so obvious because prior to 1970 it wasn’t just Detroit and Dallas hosting games. Prior to the merger the AFL also had two games on the docket. I digress because the outcome of this one is an afterthought. The Colts are sputtering. Perhaps the team suffered a collective concussion in their heavyweight bout against the Patriots. Both of these defenses can contain the pass, but Manning is smart enough to stay away from DeAngelo Hall and find the open man. Even without Vick we have three first round picks at the position. Atlanta just has to figure out whether to go with Harrington or Leftwich. They combined to go 31/48 for 255 yards last week with a Harrington touchdown and two Leftwich interceptions. Michael Jenkins had a nice showing with 73 yards, seven off his career high which shows how disappointing he has been. The Falcons need him to slide into the #2 role opposite of emerging star Roddy White. Their offense gets a charge from Dunn who can still pile up the total yards, but the Colts will be ready. They are by far the better team and whatever momentum the Falcons had built up by beating San Francisco and Carolina will be forgotten by halftime. Don’t miss dessert for this game: Indianapolis 34, Atlanta 14