NFL Predictions - Week 6
by Gregory
Cox
Director of NFL
Analysis
10/10/08
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There is a
new comedy on CBS called Worst Week.
I usually avoid shows featuring grown men in diapers. Besides, I am
trying to
put my personal worst week picking games behind me. A 6-8 mark
certainly took
away a lot of my momentum, but it is time to fire away again. Here are
some
questions I would like answered: When is the last time a team coming
off a 1-15
season beat the two teams coming off an AFC title game? Are the refs
deciding
at least two games per week or does it just seem that way? Why did you
reinstate
Adam Jones again Roger? Is Chad Johnson aware his new last name now
matches his
team’s loss total?
As parity
rules this season the only defending division champion leading is Pittsburgh.
However, only
Seattle
is not
at least tied for second and at 1-3 is the only team with worse than a
2-3
mark. There is plenty of time left for every team from last year’s
playoffs to
make it back. The magic number for me is 4 losses right now so Cincinnati
(0-5) Houston (0-4) Kansas
City (1-4) Detroit (0-4) and
St. Louis
(0-4) can pack
it up. Teams don’t like to discuss “must win” games, but I will put
that burden
on Cleveland (1-3) Oakland
(1-3) and Philadelphia
(2-3) this week. The Browns are on the road against the defending
champion
Giants who most analysts list #1 in the power rankings. This one could
bury
them. The Raiders travel to the Bayou with a new head coach. Good luck
with
that. The Eagles go to the city by the bay, and are only desperate
because
their division makes the SEC look like the Sun Belt.
Chicago (3-2) @ Atlanta
(3-2):
Let me
double check the records again. These teams both
have a winning record? With Kyle Orton and rookie Matt Ryan starting at
quarterback? Orton just sent fantasy football owners rushing to the
waiver wire
with 334 passing yards against Detroit
last week and has 7 touchdown passes over his last three games. Ryan
has yet to
pass for 200 yards, but did post his first game with multiple touchdown
passes.
He did it in a win at Green
Bay.
Remember when Atlanta’s
last franchise quarterback Michael Vick put a huge stamp on his career
by
guiding the Falcons to a 27-7 playoff victory at Lambeau? Neither guy
ranks in
the top 20 for quarterback rating. Only three qualified leaders have a
lower
completion percentage than Ryan’s 54.2%, but they each have three games
without
a turnover respectively and two wins.
Running the
ball obviously has contributed to both teams being successful early on.
The
Falcons are second in the NFL averaging 5.5 yards per rush, putting
their
strength up against the Bear defense allowing the seventh lowest
average (3.7).
Michael Turner has rushed for 324 yards in two home games, but Detroit
and Kansas City
are terrible. Chicago’s
defense is a little less intimidating on the road in a dome though.
When the
Bears run it falls on rookie Matt Forte and while by first year player
standards he has been a spark rushing for 383 yards, his average (3.6)
is low.
As a team they are in the middle of the pack in average rush, but Atlanta has the
eighth
highest allowed (4.6). I can’t see either defense shutting down the run
completely and balanced attacks on both sides will translate to a
higher
scoring game. The big difference I see is in Atlanta’s secondary. Even facing 10.2
fewer
passes per game they are almost dead even in passing yards allowed with
Chicago.
Offensively the
Bears have the experience at quarterback to take advantage: Chicago
27, Atlanta 23
Miami (2-2) @ Houston
(0-4):
The only thing missing from
Dolphin highlights this season is music from The Twilight
Zone. They beat both of the teams who played for the
AFC’s spot in the Super Bowl last year right? This was after losing to
a 4-12
team and getting blown out by a .500 team right? Speaking of bizarre,
someone
put a spell on Houston quarterback Sage Rosenfels. His inexcusable
turnovers
led to the most improbable comeback in recent memory. Four losses
allowing 30+
points is not a great way to start a season. Perhaps more interesting
is that
the Texans rank mostly in the middle of the pack for offense/defense in
total and
rushing/passing other than their #26 mark in rushing defense. They are
waiting
to turn the corner and some team is going to be caught by surprise as a
result.
Then again the Dolphins are top 10 on both sides of the ball for total
offense/defense and rushing offense/defense. How does a 1-15 team from
last
season pull that off?
One killer
statistic in this game is Houston allowing quarterbacks to complete
67.9% of
their passes, the fourth highest total in the NFL. Anyone who has seen
Chad
Pennington play knows he can keep his completion percentage high. The
chains
will keep moving for the Dolphins as a result. If Schaub is ready to go
the
numbers reflect he will have similar success, but while he has to rely
on
rookie Steve Slaton to keep the defense honest a certain Ronnie Brown
and Ricky
Williams go for Miami. Brown is on a tremendous roll and one I’m not
sure
anyone saw coming. Slaton is unlikely to run on a defense allowing 3.3
yards
per carry, the fifth best mark in the NFL. Perhaps the answer to how
this one
victory team has started off so well is having a steady presence at
quarterback, and creative offense with Brown. The Texans are due to
win, but
I’m tired of the Dolphins ruining my picks: Miami 26,
Houston 20
Baltimore (2-2) @
Indianapolis (2-2): The Colts are in
unfamiliar
territory. Not since 2001 has this team been 2-2 after four games, and
if not
for a comeback last week would have been 1-3 for the first time since
Peyton
Manning’s rookie year (1998). Over the past six seasons the earliest
they have
lost game #2 has been October 31 (2004) and October 21 (2002). This is
almost
like a heavyweight fighter needing to come off the mat after being
knocked down
for the first time, or a runner used to running from the lead being
forced to
kick at the finish to catch up. The Colts are always out in front. How
will
they respond? It has to start in the trenches where they rank dead last
in both
rushing offense (67.8 yards per game) and defense (188.5). The average
per rush
totals are not quite as bad, but this team can’t put it all on Peyton
every
week.
As for the
Ravens, they are wondering how they let two games get away the past two
weeks,
losing by 3 points to division leaders Pittsburgh and Tennessee. If
those
results get into the win column suddenly people are talking about
Baltimore as
an AFC power. They can certainly win this game with their defense.
Against the
run they lead the NFL giving up 2.8 yards per carry and should dominate
a still
weakened Indianapolis offensive line. Their pass defense leads the NFL
with
128.5 yards per game allowed and gives up an NFL low 46.2 completion
percentage. When these teams met last year it was a totally different
Raven
defense due to injuries so throw out Indy’s 44-20 win and Peyton’s
nearly
perfect 157.5 QB rating. The number was a mere 39.6 when these teams
met in the
playoffs after the 2006 season. Five field goals were enough for the
Colts who
of course went on to win the Super Bowl, but Peyton was 15/30 for 170
yards and
two interceptions. This could turn into another ugly game like that
15-6
affair.
Injuries
are going to play a factor as Bob Sanders is still out for Indianapolis
and
their defense is completely different without him. The Ravens have
injury
concerns in the secondary which certainly allows the Colts to take
advantage of
a mismatch or two along the way depending on who is missing. There
can’t be a
bigger disparity in experience than rookie Joe Flacco trying to win
over Peyton
Manning. The pressure is mounting to win at home for Indianapolis after
losing
two exhibition games and two in the regular season. Lucas Oil strikes
for the
first time, but just barely: Indianapolis
16, Baltimore 10
Detroit (0-4) @ Minnesota
(2-3): We
are down to four winless teams
in the NFL and still the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers must be getting
nervous when
they watch these Lions play. They allowed their opponent to score 21
before
they scored 7 for the fourth straight game. This time they figured
there was no
point in getting up and lost 34-7. On the other side we have the
Vikings
absolutely willing their way to victory at New Orleans despite allowing
176
punt return yards and 2 touchdowns to Reggie Bush. They did it even
though star
Adrian Peterson rushing 21 times for 32 yards. The difference is one
team
wanting to win and the other team falling apart piece by piece. The
fans want
to put Detroit’s start on quarterback Jon Kitna, a guy who has thrown
for over
4,000 yards in each of his two seasons as their starter. Wide receiver
Roy
Williams wants to believe they are the next 1992 San Diego Chargers and
therefore still in the playoff race.
Let’s get
back to reality. Since 2001 these Lions have won a grand total of 8
games on
the road. In their defense they are 8-26 in the past three plus seasons
after
going 0-24 from 2001-2003 when a lot of their current players were not
on the
team. Winning on the road is an attitude as is winning in general. They
don’t
have it. Their last win at the Metrodome came in 1997 and the Vikings
are 17-3
against them over the past ten seasons. Adrian Peterson has sputtered
the past
three weeks with 77, 80 and 32 yards rushing. Enter a defense allowing
5.0
yards per carry, the third highest mark in the NFL. On the other side
Detroit
actually has a decent rushing offense with 4.4 yards per carry.
Unfortunately
they are always behind and run an NFL low 16.5 times per game. Expect
maybe
half of that considering they go up against a defense tied for the NFL
lead
allowing 2.8 yards per rush. Put whoever you want at quarterback for
Detroit.
It doesn’t help when the Vikings are teeing off from the edges.
Minnesota has
allowed only 3 touchdown passes all season. The Lions have given up 8
and are
the only NFL team without an interception. This is going to get ugly in
a
hurry: Minnesota 38, Detroit 10
Oakland (1-3) @ New
Orleans (2-3): The Raiders unveil new
head coach
Tom Cable after their bye week and face an emotionally drained Saints
team
coming off a puzzling loss on Monday Night Football. Deposed Lane
Kiffin didn’t
get the chance to help Oakland game plan against Reggie Bush, the
running back
who helped him build his reputation as an offensive guru at USC.
Instead the
big story is JaMarcus Russell making his return to the region he called
home at
LSU. It might be an emotional game for him, but counting on a big
performance
is asking a lot. Only three teams are behind the Raiders who throw for
167.0
yards per game. New Orleans leads the NFL with a shade over double
(334.6) that
total. Both pass defenses rank in the top 8 when it comes to completion
percentage
allowed. The Saints will be using a short passing game with Bush
because
straight running has produced an NFL low 3.2 yards per carry and the
Raiders
can do enough up front to stop them.
If the
visitors have a chance it has to be their Bush (Michael) plus rookie
Darren
McFadden and possibly Justin Fargas running the ball. New Orleans gives
up a
healthy 4.5 yards per carry. Certainly Russell will have an opportunity
to make
some passes down the field against a beaten up secondary that just lost
rookie
cornerback Tracy Porter for the season. I would expect at least a few
surprise
plays. Brees will counter with a lot of big ones as he tries to sweep
the Bay
Area teams. Even without Colston and Shockey he is on pace to shatter
the NFL
record with 5,354 yards passing. A lot of different players get
involved and it
will be easy for Brees to avoid Asomugha. This promises to be an
intriguing
game because Cable should team with Knapp to draw up a very
conservative, run
heavy game plan for the Raiders. Their hope is to limit possessions,
kick a few
field goals and take the game into the fourth quarter. Their downfall
has been
blowing leads, but I think the Saints are angry about last week and
will take
it to them early: New Orleans 26,
Oakland 16
Cincinnati (0-5) @ NY
Jets (2-2):
I have given up trying to figure
out if Carson Palmer will start or finish. Injuries like this make
predictions
very tricky because of the precipitous drop to his backup Ryan
Fitzpatrick.
Last week the Bengals hung in at Dallas behind Palmer and three weeks
ago in
this very stadium took the defending champion Giants to overtime before
losing.
In between that Fitzpatrick started a loss against sputtering
Cleveland. His
presence is crucial because the Jets allow 265.0 yards per game through
the
air, 0.6 yards ahead of the NFL’s worst total. Cincinnati runs for 3.3
yards
per carry, second worst in the NFL, and New York allows 3.1 for the
fourth best
total. This could turn into a Palmer-Favre shootout because if Palmer
is in
there he will be throwing 40+ times.
If New York
has their way Thomas Jones will get going. Only five teams run less
than the
Jets, but only one team is run on more than Cincinnati who gives up 4.5
yards
per carry. I expect a slight edge in rushing for New York. That’s great
news
for the Bengals who are -93 yards rushing per game on the season. The
combined
rushing yardage during games the Jets have been involved in is just 162
which
is why I keep harping on the quarterback play. Favre is padding his
legacy as
opposed to tarnishing it as others accused him off just weeks ago. He
leads the
NFL in quarterback rating (110.8) and touchdown passes (12) while
ranking tenth
in yards per game (233.8) among regulars. This should be a tussle
assuming
Palmer is in there the whole way. I am almost feeling like it’s another
Browns/Bengals game from early last season. New York will call enough
running
plays to Jones to keep that from happening: NY Jets 33,
Cincinnati 22
Carolina (4-1) @ Tampa
Bay (3-2):
Everyone has been focused on the
East in the NFC and for good reason. Meanwhile only a weird loss on MNF
prevented the South from entering the weekend with four winning teams.
As it is
the division is 9-5 against outsiders and this one could change the
race
dramatically. The Panthers are hoping to create a cushion over the
defending
champs while the Bucs are hoping to keep parity going and tie for the
lead.
Defense is the order of the day although Tampa Bay hasn’t been playing
up to
their usual standards. Instead Carolina brings in the #4 ranked total
defensive
unit. It is an understatement to say both teams can stop the run. Only
16.7% of
the combined runs against them have gone for a first down and just one
of 264
went for a touchdown (Carolina gave it up).
Tampa Bay
will be hoping to break their opponent down with an offense averaging
5.3 yards
per carry, third best in the NFL. Warrick Dunn has been rejuvenated
even as he
closes in on his 34th birthday and is nearly on pace for
1,000 yards
in a backup role. Earnest Graham loves this home field having rushed
for 116
and 111 yards here. The Panthers have their own duo with rookie
Jonathan
Stewart and DeAngelo Williams splitting time nearly equally with a
combined 4.3
yard average. Neither team will be giving up on the run even if the
punters are
getting a workout.
Passing
could be an adventure as well. Tampa Bay is always strong in pass
defense and
is allowing quarterbacks to complete 58.8% of their passes, but
Carolina is
third in that department (55.3%). The teams are almost identical from
the
offensive side in completion percentage, but Tampa Bay has 8
interceptions
thrown to Carolina’s 2. Delhomme has made the most of Muhammad’s return
to the
team finding him 25 times for 358 yards. Steve Smith is still rounding
into
shape coming off his suspension. On the other side it might be Garcia
coming
back if Griese is unable to go. It’s a tough situation because he feels
disrespected by the team and obviously isn’t coach Gruden’s first
choice.
History is also on the Panthers side as they have won the last five
road games
in the series. Both teams beat Atlanta by identical 24-9 scores
strangely
enough and both have 3 point wins over Chicago. It’s a close one and
obviously
I’m torn, but one team is gaining confidence and the other is coming
home after
a loss: Carolina 16, Tampa Bay 13
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