NFL Predictions - Week 6
by Gregory
Cox
Director of
NFL Analysis
10/10/08
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St. Louis (0-4) @ Washington
(4-1):
Forget a
college football playoff. Fans will be clamoring for a Rams-Lions game
pretty
soon to decide which team is really the worst in the NFL. St. Louis has
lost by an average of 37-11 and
spent their off week adjusting to defensive coordinator Jim Haslett’s
ascension
to head coach. Isn’t he responsible for the #31 ranked defense giving
up 411.8
yards per game? Yeah, that’s how bad things are. Anyone who saw the
Redskins
lose to the Giants 16-7 in the NFL opener might have felt like they
were
heading in the wrong direction as well. Because schedule makers are out
of
their mind it marked the first of three divisional road games for them
in the
first five weeks, but somehow this team rallied to win at Dallas
and Philadelphia
as part of their four game winning streak.
A big
reason for Washington’s
surge is quarterback Jason Campbell. He is the only NFL quarterback
with 20+
passes thrown who has yet to throw an interception and not only hasn’t
lost a
fumble he hasn’t fumbled period. When your quarterback doesn’t turn it
over and
has taken only 8 sacks it is a lot easier to win close games. This week
it
should be another heavy dose of Clinton Portis helping him look good.
Often
overlooked despite still being in his prime, Portis logged 50 carries
for 266
yards to pace their road wins the past two weeks. He goes up against a
team
allowing 4.7 yards per rush with only pride motivating them. It’s a
bonus for
the Rams to have Bulger back in his rightful spot at starting
quarterback, but
he sorely misses Isaac Bruce. Torry Holt leads the receivers with 15
catches
for 187 yards. The only other non-running back with more than 6
receptions is
tight end Randy McMichael who is now on IR. They have no chance
whatsoever
unless the Redskins are weary from their road trip: Washington 30, St. Louis 10
Jacksonville (2-3) @
Denver (4-1): The Jaguars come into
this game with a lot of experience
against the best teams in the AFC having played three of the four teams
leading
their respective divisions, as Denver
currently is. Unfortunately all of those games ended in close losses by
7 (at Tennessee) 4 (vs. Buffalo)
and 5 (vs. Pittsburgh)
points. They are hoping to avoid the clean sweep. Both teams have a
reputation
for successfully running the football yet Denver
is #14 and Jacksonville
#19 in rushing offense. In terms of average per rush the numbers do
improve
with the Broncos ninth (4.4) and Jaguars fifteenth (4.0). Defensively
there is
a big edge to the visitors allowing a middle of the pack average (4.2)
while
the home side gives up an NFL high (5.2). I don’t know if Jacksonville’s
offensive line is ready to
take advantage of this though.
Instead
this one could go aerial in a big way. Remember when the Broncos were
supposed
to have the best cornerback tandem with Bly and Bailey? Teams are
completing an
NFL high 72.5% of their passes against this secondary, a number that is
so high
only one collegiate team from FBS or FCS allows a higher total. It’s
Marist if
you’re curious at 73.1%. The Jacksonville
defense is also allowing a high number (65.4%) and with efficient
quarterbacks
like Cutler and Garrard both over 65% on the season I think you can see
where
this game is heading. These defenses have combined to allow 17 passing
touchdowns on the season. Instead of running to set up the pass both
teams
might approach their offense the other way around. If it turns into a
frenzy of
passing Denver
has the advantage although if rookie Eddie Royal can’t go it is almost
a push.
I keep waiting for the Jags to rally on the offensive line despite all
of their
injuries and as formidable as Denver’s
defense
appeared last week I fear it was more of a mirage than a trend: Jacksonville 22, Denver 20
Dallas (4-1) @
Arizona (3-2): There are a few things
going for
the Cardinals in this one, and it starts with the distraction that is
Pac-Man,
formerly Adam while he was behaving, Jones. The cornerback is in
trouble at the
worst possible moment because fellow cornerback Newman is hurt. Mix in
the fact
that Boldin might be healthy at receiver for Arizona while Warner is throwing the
passes
and I think you see where this is going. Then there is Phoenix Stadium
where
they have looked like world beaters blowing out Miami
31-10 and Buffalo
41-17 although the win over the Bills comes with an asterisk since
quarterback
Trent Edwards left the game. Typically this team is better in the
desert, but
this season it looks like they might repeat last year’s 6-2 mark. We’ll
see if
fans pull their usual stunts selling off tickets to rich Dallas fans.
Finally, the Cowboys have to be
feeling the weight of playing in a rugged division and under a national
spotlight. After the 3-0 start they stumbled against Washington
at home then staggered past winless Cincinnati
in a game where the Bengals had a chance to tie it in the fourth
quarter with a
two point conversion.
If you’re
going to succeed on the road a great way to do it is by running the
football.
Forget about changing the play at the line, just snap and hand off. The
Cowboys
are fourth in the NFL with 5.0 yards per rush. Felix Jones actually has
a
better rushing average this season (9.0) than he did last year for the
Arkansas
Razorbacks. Someone forgot to tell him how difficult that is. He has
busted
runs of 22, 60 and 33 yards in various games and scored 4 times when
you
include his kickoff return touchdown. Then there is Marion Barber with
100
total yards per game and 5 touchdowns. They might be swayed by Owens
crying for
the football, but against a middle of the road run defense it is very
clear
what their game plan should be.
Arizona doesn’t have much of a
choice. They
passed on the marquee running backs in the draft and although rookie
Tim
Hightower was an economical and has scored 5 touchdowns the team is
averaging
3.3 yards per carry, second lowest in the NFL. The Cowboys don’t have a
great
run defense, but they have the speed to handle “Edge” and the rookie.
The game
plan will be taking to the air for Warner who might not have Boldin. He
will have
Fitzgerald, Breaston and the rookie Doucet who debuted with 6
receptions last
week. If the Cowboys aren’t careful this game will get into the 30’s in
a
hurry. On the other side Romo is looking at a secondary allowing the
third
highest completion percentage (68.1%) and second most touchdowns (9)
although
six of the latter came in one game against Favre’s Jets. It exploited a
weakness, and because they can carve this defense up in two ways I have
to go
with them: Dallas 34, Arizona
24
Philadelphia (2-3) @ San Francisco
(2-3):
There is no
way around it. The Eagles are a much different, and better, team with
Westbrook
at running back. Guys like Tomlinson might get more air time, but he is
absolutely vital to this offense. Since 2003 they are 4-7 when he is
unable to
see any action. Even if McNabb is healthy and in the middle of a
successful
season too much of the offense falls on his shoulders when he can’t
dump the
ball off to Westbrook. The 49ers can relate to leaning on one offensive
player
in the backfield because Gore has 604 total yards and 5 touchdowns
representing
nearly 40% of their offense. With Martz running the offense, however,
quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan will continue to be counted on heavily. The
past
two weeks he has turned it over 6 times and has already been sacked 20
times
this season. Now he faces probably the most talented pass defense in
the NFL
that has allowed quarterbacks to complete just 57.2% of their passes,
sixth
best in the NFL. The Eagles also tie for the lead with 18 sacks.
Needless to
say Philadelphia
will be hoping to win this game with defense first, and with Westbrook
second.
Their ideal situation would be resting their star and hoping the bye
week
improves his health. San
Francisco
should be thinking about wearing down the Eagles with the run because
although
this defense is fifth in yards per carry allowed (3.3) the 49ers are
seventh in
yards gained (4.6). Portis did it to them last week as the Redskins ran
him 29
times for 145 yards. Martz is never one to change his ways, however,
and you
can expect O’Sullivan to be over 4 in combined sacks/turnovers. A
homecoming of
sorts is in order for wide receiver DeSean Jackson who played his
college ball
across the Bay Bridge
at California.
He has been a major spark in his rookie season leading the team in
receptions
(23) and yards (335) while adding a punt return touchdown last week.
His
teammates are getting healthy and given how much this team likes to
spread the
ball around McNabb should continue his great season here. I always
pause before
picking against the 49ers at home, but they will eventually make the
costly
mistakes to lose: Philadelphia 23, San Francisco
17
Green Bay (2-3) @
Seattle (1-3): It is only fitting for
Mike
Holmgren’s last year to include a meeting with his former team the
Packers.
Unfortunately for him this swan song has looked more like a Seahawk, uh
duck
hunt with the opposition holding the shotguns. Three times already his
defense
has allowed 33+ points and offensively they have been unable to get
into a rhythm
because virtually every wide receiver has been injured. The only player
with
more than 8 receptions is rookie tight end John Carlson and quarterback
Matt
Hasselbeck has 656 yards on the season with 2 touchdown passes. Things
would be
even uglier if not for a running game picking up 4.7 yards per carry,
sixth
best in the NFL, and this is where it could get ugly for the visiting
Packers.
They allow 5.1 yards per carry, besting only Denver. Julius Jones once pushed Ryan
Grant
to the bench when they were teammates at Notre Dame and should get the
better
end of it again here. Grant set a season high with a modest 18 carries
last
week and has yet to break 100 yards in game. Seattle is below average in run
defense (4.6
yards per carry) and the time is now for him to get going.
The
Seahawks have only 1 interception this season and allow opposing
quarterbacks
to complete 65% of their passes. Aaron Rodgers can be very accurate and
certainly has the targets to hurt this defense with. On the other hand
with all
of the receiver injuries Seattle as a
team
completes an NFL low 49.2% of their passes going up against a defense
second
only to Baltimore
allowing 52.1% of opposing passes to be completed. I have to believe
the
Packers will load up against the run and play almost exclusively man
coverage.
It is tough to gauge this one given how much better Seattle historically plays at home
and how
horrific they are when traveling east where they have already been
blown out
twice. The Packers gave one away against the birds (Falcons) this past
week and
steal one back. It’s a risky selection, but they get back on track: Green Bay 27, Seattle
23
New England (3-1) @ San Diego (2-3): The flexible schedule
kicks in
later, but it doesn’t matter this week. NBC would never give up this
game for
any other. The Chargers have been seething since losing to the Patriots
in last
year’s AFC title game. They were wounded on offense yet gave a team who
had the
first 16-0 season in NFL history all they could handle. Now it is New England playing without quarterback Tom
Brady who is
at a disadvantage. The Pats completed the first leg of their trip to California by
beating
the 49ers last week. Matt Cassel isn’t making fans forget their star
quarterback is injured, but he has the team fifth in completion
percentage
(67.2) in the NFL. The Chargers have the seventh highest completion
percentage
allowed (66.7) including an NFL high 10 touchdown passes given up. San Diego’s offense is second with 10 touchdown
passes and
can certainly hurt the New England
defense
that has only 7 sacks on the season. It should be open season on
passing the
football for both sides.
When it
comes to running the football each team has had issues. New England has rotated running backs into the
lineup yet can’t find
anyone healthy or effective enough to be their lead rusher. San Diego must
be wishing they had absorbed
the salary cap hit required to retain Michael Turner. Tomlinson has 331
yards
rushing, but a pedestrian 3.7 yard average and 4 total touchdowns with
just
over 82 total yards per game. Those aren’t LT numbers. If he is going
to break
out this is his opportunity. An aging by the week New England defense
has
allowed 4.9 yards per carry this season, fifth most in the NFL. San Diego’s
defense isn’t
much better (4.4) but who is going to expose that weakness? This is
about
revenge more than anything else. The Chargers are mad and while the
Patriots
still have talent they have somewhat stumbled to their 3-1 start while
playing
a string of bad teams. It is time for them to come back to the field on
national television: San Diego 31, New England 16
NY Giants (4-0) @
Cleveland (1-3): Before the season this
looked like
a good one for MNF. The Giants of course are the defending champions
while the
Browns were expected to be an upstart in the AFC. Now it’s looking like
Cleveland is playing
for survival against a New
York team that
hasn’t lost a road game since last year’s season opener. Any upset
usually
starts with being able to stop the run and force an opponent out of
their comfort
zone. The Giants average an NFL best 5.8 yards per carry behind a
laundry list
of running backs and while the Browns have done a decent job against
the run
they are not stopping them. Even if they did Cleveland has allowed opposing
quarterbacks
to complete a healthy 67% of their passes, although for just 3
touchdowns
against 6 interceptions. Even with the distraction of Plaxico Burress
nothing
is stopping New York’s
Eli Manning this season. He has 7 touchdowns against a single
interception and
has been sacked only 5 times. On the other side it’s easy to see why
fans are
calling for Brady Quinn. The team is dead last completing just 49.2% of
their
passes with 3 touchdowns.
Making
matters worse New York has one of the
better
run defenses with 3.7 yards per carry allowed compared to Cleveland’s
nearly NFL worst 3.5 average
gain. Suddenly Jamal Lewis is old again. This is only a game if the MNF
lights
create a mystical upset magic potion turning New York’s deadly pass rush into
near misses
and perhaps making a hero out of Quinn when/if he gets into the game.
No one
using common sense would break this down and call for the Browns to
win. They
have shown little signs of life this season and it would be a huge
shocker for
them to win: NY Giants 27, Cleveland 14
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