NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 10
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
11/15/09

Chicago (4-4) @ San Francisco (3-5): I just love it when Thursday night games start and I am put into a panic trying to get my selections in. This game was chosen by NFL Network because the 49ers are coached by former standout Bears linebacker Mike Singletary. There will be some nostalgia, perhaps an airing of the “Super Bowl Shuffle” and some clips of him giving those scary eyes through his face mask. I guess it gives the network something to chatter about, but tight end Vernon Davis stole the show by talking smack about the Chicago defense. He apparently never heard about not poking a sleeping Bear with a stick. Both of these teams have been slumbering for the past month after hot starts. Chicago never really woke up after the bye week, beating only Cleveland which is not saying much. They also gave up 40+ in losses to Cincinnati and Arizona. Where is the team that beat Pittsburgh 17-14 in week 2?

San Francisco looked to be totally in charge of the NFC West at 3-1 having swept through the division and only lost at Minnesota on a miracle pass from Favre. That’s just it though. They are 0-5 when facing teams outside of their division, which is similar to what Arizona did last year (3-7) while finishing 9-7. As a result this is as close as it gets to a playoff atmosphere this early in the season. The 49ers would be left clutching to their tiebreaker edge over Arizona hoping to squeeze out an ugly division title with a loss here. The Bears are not playing well enough to expect to catch the Vikings and with 8 teams at 3-5 to 5-3 entering this week not leading a division every win counts in the race for 2 wild card spots.

Breaking it down, both defenses are in a bad funk. The 49ers give up a lot of passing yardage. The combination of Forte’s ineffective season running the ball and San Francisco’s stout run defense will put this game on Jay Cutler’s arm. He is definitely one of the most entertaining quarterbacks in the NFL and a tough nut to crack when it comes to predicting his performance. Sure, he passed for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. His team also lost by 20 points so did it matter? At the break he is on pace for 24 turnovers and 38 sacks. All 3 of his multiple interception games have resulted in a loss and both of his turnover free games were wins. This is not an unusual pattern. The question is how much pressure the 49ers can put on him, leading to those mistakes. When the 49ers have the ball it is going to be a grind. Their running game has hit for some big plays, but stalled overall. Alex Smith is a worse version of Cutler. He already has 5 turnovers and 8 sacks in two games as the starter, and is not nearly as capable of putting up the big yardage of his opposite number. It is always difficult to project these defense optional games. I will usually go with the home team or the better quarterback. Having both on the same side helps, but that’s not the case here. Call me a sucker for the local team playing inspired knowing their coach is a bit on the ropes: San Francisco 31, Chicago 24 (SF -3/over 43)

Atlanta (5-3) @ Carolina (3-5): Last week the Panthers stood tall on the road against the Saints who seem poised to become the latest team to take their turn winning the NFC South. I said in my breakdown a loss would relegate them to fighting for a wild card, which was stating the obvious. I’m doing it again. They really need this win or they can forget about any sort of playoff berth. Maybe after the season they can get together with the Titans for the Disappointment Bowl at a golf course because both of the top seeds from 2008 have fallen fast. Carolina’s issues have to fall on quarterback Jake Delhomme’s shoulders. It is not just the 16 turnovers, two per game if you are not smarter than a fifth grader. He has only 5 touchdown passes all season. Tom Brady managed that in a quarter. Great quarterbacks make the surrounding talent better. He has found Steve Smith just once on a touchdown pass and no other active receiver has even 10 receptions on the season. Now that Muhammad, clearly in the twilight of his career, is out defenses have little to worry about on one side of the field. His blocking is also missed in the running game.

Did I mention the Falcons are pretty good? They succeed playing smart, balanced football. Their running game is not as explosive because Michael Turner is going solo until Jerious Norwood returns to the lineup. Turner has been hot the past two games though. This is going to be a close game because both run defenses are in the bottom 10 for yards per game and per carry. Carolina will protect Jake Delhomme as they have several times already this season by calling run after run. Atlanta has superior weapons and a better quarterback, but the edge in pass defense goes to Carolina on the stat sheet. While Ryan has been slumping I would still rather have my team in his hands. Another key factor swinging this game for me is the Panthers being without a key linebacker in Thomas Davis who is now out for the season. The Falcons do have tackle machine Curtis Lofton. They win a close one: Atlanta 26, Carolina 23 (ATL -1.5/over 43.5)

Tampa Bay (1-7) @ Miami (3-5): There is no way to hype this game even if it is a battle for Florida. The teams don’t even play in the same conference. That being the case, this is the first time early 2005 draft picks Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown will appear on the same field as pros after forming a dynamic duo at Auburn. The results have been hugely in favor of the player once known as “Hummer” so he could have a cool nickname too. Williams has suffered multiple knee injuries while Brown is the NFL’s best operator of the trendy Wildcat offense. The more interesting showdown will be between the young quarterbacks. Rookie Josh Freeman and the classic “creamsicle” jerseys provided a massive scoring spark on all three phases in Tampa Bay’s first win. The 38 points were more than the team had scored in their four lowest scoring games this season combined. He is opposed by Chad Henne who in his second year has taken over as the starter. Neither team has much at receiver. Bess leads the Dolphins with 262 yards and Stroughter has 233, trailing standout tight end Winslow (352). Heck, that’s one game for Miles Austin right?

We know the teams want to run and will struggle to pass. One surprising aspect might be that not just Tampa Bay is getting lit up on the scoreboard (28.9) Miami (25.5) is too. The difference, which is key to the game’s outcome, is run defense. The Dolphins are fifth in yards allowed per game (94.5) and the Bucs give up the third most (163.4). The NFL rankings are the same when looking at yards per carry with Miami leading 3.7 to 4.8. This is going to be a long day for the visitors. They are never going to get their hands on the football and when they do Freeman is going to be under fire because they will be behind. He is also without their best wide receiver Antonio Bryant. Miami has given up a good chunk of passing yards per game, fifth most at 246.9, but they hold passers to a low completion percentage (58.3) and have 21 sacks. I don’t see him rallying them this time, especially on the road. It was nice to see them get their first win and avoid 0-16. Now the Dolphins get back to the business of fighting for a wild card: Miami 31, Tampa Bay 10 (MIA -9/under 43.5)

Detroit (1-7) @ Minnesota (7-1): The Vikings have really had a tough time dispatching the Lions of late. Even though they keep winning it is not easy. In September the Lions actually led 10-7 at halftime and trailed just 17-10 into the fourth quarter before fading. The stat sheet was shockingly even, starting with a dead heat in total yards (265). Minnesota had a 18-17 edge in first downs. Favre threw for 155 yards and his rookie counterpart Stafford had 152. Peterson’s 92 yards rushing barely topped Smith’s 83. Granted, the outcome was never in doubt when it mattered in the final 10 minutes, but I’m sure a lot of Detroit’s players feel like they can compete with Minnesota even with the mirror image records.

There is also the lingering factor of Favre’s groin injury. Coming off the bye week he says he will play and after a million games played in a row it is hard to imagine this will bother him too much, especially with a stud rusher to lean on. It might surprise you to know, however, that Minnesota has just a 118.8-104.4 edge in rushing yards per game and a slim 4.1-3.9 advantage in yards per carry over Detroit. Given the team records I would expect this gap to be a lot bigger. One reason for the losses has to be touchdown to interception ratio. Favre has 16 passing strikes to just 3 picks, while Stafford and Culpepper are almost exactly opposite (6, 16). Fun with numbers huh? Detroit’s pass defense has been atrocious and was just shredded in Seattle by Hasselbeck, who once backed up #4. They allow the highest completion percentage (71.7) and if Tennessee was not around would also be worst in yards per game (263.1) and touchdown passes allowed (19). I know there is a history here indicating it might get close, but the Vikings are smelling blood in the water coming off their bye week. Their sights are set on the North division title and #1 seed. The Lions are just trying to survive. Therefore, the predictable rout happens: Minnesota 34, Detroit 14 (MIN -15.5/over 47)

Jacksonville (4-4) @ NY Jets (4-4): On the surface it looks like this is a battle of teams heading in opposite directions. The Jaguars are 4-2 since losing their first two against 2008 division champions Indianapolis and Arizona. The Jets are 1-4 following their 3-0 start, mostly as a result of getting swept by Miami. I’m not sure the positive and negative momentum tells us much though. Jacksonville’s past three wins are over teams with 6+ losses. New York just had a bye week to reorganize and the chilly Jersey wind on their side. Speaking of that wind, it starts to get unpredictable this time of year. Neither team is terribly interested in passing anyway. The Jets have the most rushes per game (36.9) and by far the most yards (177.6). The Jags post the second best average per carry (5.1) and pick up 140.3 yards a game. New York has a better run defense and even without dynamic Leon Washington can make due with rookie Shonn Greene spelling Thomas Jones. MJD is pretty much a one man show for the visitors, and on an offense with few playmakers that can be a problem.

It gets worse for Jacksonville. They really only have one receiver getting the ball in key spots and that is Mike Sims-Walker who has come out of nowhere to pile up 554 yards and 4 touchdowns. Revis has blanketed much better threats and has helped New York’s defense rank second in passing yards per game allowed (165.3). Meanwhile Jacksonville is towards the bottom of the NFL giving up 242.3 including 15 touchdown passes, sixth most in the NFL. Even though rookie Mark Sanchez has just two games over 180 yards this season, the bookends of his first half (272, 265) you can bet he spent the bye week working with Braylon Edwards on timing. Expect them to come out firing when the Jags least expect it. Also look for their defense to attack in an effort to regain some of their lost swagger: NY Jets 24, Jacksonville 16 (NYJ -6/under 41)

Cincinnati (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2): Can I skip this one? Seriously, the Bengals have wrecked me week after week. I picked them to win both games they lost, and every time I think a strong opponent will be too much for them they come through. What am I to do? I know this, Abromowitz would love for me to pick against them because given how much I have been wrong that is a good omen. He is getting his wish. The odds are really catching up to this team. If, on the heels of a season finishing with 4 wins they go 4-0 against the two teams who played to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl it will be historic. Of course we know they already topped the Steelers once and did so in dramatic fashion with a touchdown pass to Andre Caldwell with precious seconds to go. In fact, Caldwell has a score in all three of their huge AFC North wins this season and two of them were game winners. Since he has not scored in any other game this season (or in his young career for that matter) I would consider it a very good sign for the visitors if he scores Sunday.

Looking back at the first game won by Cincinnati it was much different than their wins over Baltimore. It was not a mind blowing, physically dominating type victory. Benson, who has run through the Ravens like a hot knife through butter, had 76 yards on 16 carries. A big chunk of that, 23 yards, came on one run. The Steelers committed the only turnover and it resulted in a touchdown when Jonathan Joseph caught Big Ben’s pass and kept running. Pittsburgh was +100 in total yards and twice as efficient on third down. They also held the ball nearly 10 minutes more. In essence, they lost the game on a pick six and a defensive breakdown late. Here’s the thing. This time Troy Polamalu is going to be roaming the secondary when Cincinnati tries to mount their comeback, and pass rusher Antwan Odom will not be pressuring Roethlisberger. Two players are not going to totally turn a game around, but combined with the change of venue and emergence of Rashard Mendenhall as a rushing threat I see a big difference. The only tough part will be coming off a short week having just gone to Denver for a huge MNF win. The Bengals are also going to be beaten up though having just dealt with Baltimore. Leave your bribe money at home Chad. It won’t be close enough for you to need it: Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 14 (PIT -6.5/under 42)

New Orleans (8-0) @ St. Louis (1-7): Gee, I wonder where I’m going with this pick. The Saints are in the midst of a magical season. The Rams probably just wish they could disappear. Maybe the biggest challenge for New Orleans here, and next week at Tampa Bay, is complacency. Twice in the past three weeks they have needed to rally in the second half. I don’t expect them to be digging any holes in this one. St. Louis has the fifth worst defense in total yards, and the worst scoring offense at 9.6 points per game. That’s a really bad combination when you’re going up against a team leading the NFL in scoring (37.9) and total yards (426.9). About the only thing the Rams can do is run the ball some with Steven Jackson. It’s not often you see a team with a 1-7 record averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The Saints are pretty average in run defense and obviously the game plan will be to keep Brees on the sideline.

This season has been successful for New Orleans because of their offensive balance. In terms of yards per game they are fifth in rushing (144.6) and fourth in passing (292.0). There are so many weapons and appear to be no big egos getting in the way of spreading the ball around. Even if Reggie Bush is considered an afterthought he still has 386 total yards and 4 touchdowns. That ranks him sixth on the team in total yards. Sixth! Former first round pick Robert Meachem is actually not far behind at 326. Let’s contrast that to the Rams whose only player over 286 is Jackson. They just don’t have the firepower to keep up. It should get out of hand early, and I expect it to because the Saints know better than to mess around on the road. They learned that lesson in Miami: New Orleans 38, St. Louis 10 (NO -13.5/under 50)

Buffalo (3-5) @ Tennessee (2-6): These franchises had a couple of very memorable playoff games. The last one, dubbed the “Music City Miracle” on this very field marked the last time the Bills appeared in the playoffs. If either of these teams wants to make an unlikely run at a wild card this season it starts here. I mention this because running back Chris Johnson is 1-0 since he declared, in the wake of their first win, that the Titans would finish 10-0 just as they began the 2008 season 10-0. Hey, anything is possible. The same is true for the Bills who would be a game out of first place in a very muddled AFC East if not for a bumbling final few minutes in the opener against the Patriots. Wild comeback stories aside, the focus has to be on the present because neither team should be worried about next week.

Coming off the bye week Buffalo should be rested. They need to figure out to do some scoring. Since week 3 they have not topped 20 points and while it has been enough to win twice during that stretch it is a tough way to go about things. Tennessee came out of their bye week with a quarterback switch to Vince Young and scored 64 points during a pair of wins after putting up 84 during their 0-6 start. Buffalo has the benefit of a boost at quarterback with the return of Trent Edwards. I don’t think either quarterback will have much to say about the outcome in this one though. Combining their efforts the two teams average 320.1 yards per game, which would barely put them ahead of NFL leading Indianapolis (315.0). The difference is that the Titans are dangerous running the ball with Johnson busting off long touchdowns just about every week. This is going to be a problem for the visitors who give up an NFL high 173.6 yards rushing and the highest average (5.1). If the numbers hold Tennessee will run for about 167 yards. All Young has to do is avoid turnovers and he will go 3-0. We also will be witnessing the worst pass defense for Tennessee, which might excite Terrell Owens if he was still making plays. I think that unit is starting to come around after all the injuries. They might stage a late comeback, but nothing more: Tennessee 27, Buffalo 16 (TEN -7/over 41)

Denver (6-2) @ Washington (2-6): I don’t watch much ESPN other than MNF or college football games, but I’ll bet Mark Schlereth is all lathered up about this one. Is he wearing the rings he won as a member of both teams? I kid, sort of. His blathering has no bearing on the outcome, but another guy who has been on both teams might have. Unfortunately Clinton Portis has been ruled out of what would have been his first shot at the team that drafted him, but dealt him two years later to the Redskins. It gets worse. Ladell Betts is expected to start at running back and is dealing with a sprained ankle. They will have some sort of committee, possibly involving fans pulled from the stands, going behind a line beset by injuries. Oh, and the Broncos give up just 97 yards rushing per game with the fifth lowest average rush (3.7) so that’s helpful. They can always throw to old reliable, tight end Chris Cooley. Nope, he is also out. Denver is going to just pin their ears back and come after poor Jason Campbell. Elvis Dumervil has 10 ½ sacks and the team is third in the NFL with 26.

The only thing to really watch in this one is how willing Washington’s defense is to take this game into their own hands. They absolutely have the talent to shut down just about any offense under normal circumstances, but with the offense putting them back on the field constantly it has been tough. The unit is sixth in total yards per game allowed (286.3) and #1 in pass defense. The secondary does take a hit now that safety Chris Horton is out for the season. This game truly does come down to the offensive creativity of Josh McDaniels against a defense fighting for pride. One thing Denver does is protect the football. Kyle Orton is a career winner, but as recently as last season gave it away 17 times in 15 games. He has just 4 this season, all interceptions and has only had the ball jarred loose from him once. Denver recovered it. Oh, and three of those picks were last week against the standout Pittsburgh defense. Washington’s only chance is to force him into some of those mistakes and capitalize with scores. Honestly I could see it working for a while. The Broncos are worn out after dealing with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, never mind the travel and lost confidence. Mix it all up and things might be interesting for the first three quarters: Denver 20, Washington 13 (DEN -3.5/under 37)

Kansas City (1-7) @ Oakland (2-6): Is it too early to think about the NFL draft order? If not, this one has huge implications. The first meeting at Arrowhead Stadium was like watching paint drying on growing grass until the final three minutes of regulation. Oakland led 6-3 until a clutch touchdown reception by Dwayne Bowe. It didn’t seem like the Raiders, needing a touchdown, would have an answer considering they had just one drive over 17 yards in the game and not even 100 total yards up to that point. Well, 9 plays and 69 yards later Darren McFadden scored the game winner. He will be out for the rematch, but some other offensive starters return from injury for the Silver & Black following their bye week. The line gets Gallery and Green back, and it looks like Schilens is going to make his season debut at receiver. In a game like this between a pair of bottom level teams this is significant.

The Chiefs suffered a loss when they parted with running back Larry Johnson who was poised to become the franchise’s leading rusher. However, it was a move that should have been made before the draft. He has not been an effective player since 2006 when the line blocking for him was considerably more talented. Now it is up to Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith to balance the offense. While Charles is considered the starter, Smith racked up 150 yards on 31 carries as a rookie (2007) against the Raiders. Their run defense is fourth worst in the NFL, and while the Chiefs are right behind the yards per game gap is nearly 25. Also, no team has given up more rushing touchdowns than Oakland (13) who also ranks third in most first downs rushing (70). The key to the game is which team comes ready to run. If the revitalized Raider line is ready to go it should be an easy win in the Black Hole. It’s hard to predict anything positive for JaMarcus Russell, but Kansas City has the third worst pass defense giving up 252.3 yards per game and has an NFL low 3 interceptions. This would be the seventh road win in the series if the visitors pull it off, but I like the rested team at home with offensive additions: Oakland 20, Kansas City 13 (OAK -1.5/under 36.5)

Seattle (3-5) @ Arizona (5-3): This is a replay of a game won 27-3 by the Cardinals at Qwest a month ago. If not for the decisiveness of that first result I might be starting this breakdown by declaring that the Seahawks can get right back into the division race with a win. In that one Warner completed 78% of his 41 passes and his defense limited three running backs to 12 yards on 10 carries. Hasselbeck wasn’t even half as accurate (34.5%) for 112 yards and needless to say Seattle was never in it. Their hope this time around is that the Cards might be weakened on defense without linebackers Okeafor and Hayes. Also, Arizona has inexplicably won just one of four home games thus far. Seattle though, is 0-3 on the road having been outscored 32-15 in the process.

One thing we probably will not see much of is running plays. San Diego is the only team with a worse rushing offense than these two teams who combine for 165 yards per game on the ground. Arizona has a slightly better average per rush and probably a little more skill at the position with Hightower catching passes and the rookie Wells starting to get more involved. They are also better in run defense although both teams are in the upper half of the NFL. One surprise on the stat sheet is passing offense. The Cardinals do lead in yards per game 277.5 to 251.1, but the edge in touchdown strikes is pretty slim (16-13) and Hasselbeck has half the interceptions. If he gets hot the game could be interesting. Arizona does give up more passing yards, sixth most in the NFL (246.6) in fact. This is also their last gasp as I mentioned at the top to stay in the West division chase. The truth is that the Cards have been, other than one stumble, sprinting for a month. They are going to stay in charge: Arizona 34, Seattle 22 (AZ -7.5/over 46.5)

Dallas (6-2) @ Green Bay (4-4): For six straight seasons in the heart of the nineties at least one of these teams played for the NFC title. At first the Cowboys had the upper hand, and then the Packers took over in Favre’s prime. Neither team has sniffed the Super Bowl since. Riding a four game winning streak and coming off a key road win at Philadelphia many are seeing Dallas playing for a championship. Meanwhile Green Bay just lost to the final remaining winless team last week at Tampa Bay. I don’t know how much I can blame them after having their hearts ripped out, again, by Minnesota the previous week. I’m also not sure how much more of a beating Aaron Rodgers can take. Through all the pounding he has the team ranked seventh in scoring (26.9) but a league leading 37 sacks is ridiculous. Not since the 2006 season has any NFL team given up more than 55, and that year it was the Raiders taking 72. Their quarterbacks were Andrew Walter, Aaron Brooks and Marques Tuiasosopo. Starting to get the picture of what bad company that is if this pace keeps up?

The Cowboys have quietly mounted a pretty consistent defense having not given up more than 21 points in six straight. It has not been a dominant unit, just enough to get the job done in the win column. Their offense continues to pile up yards, ranking third with 404.5 per game. The balance is there as well with top 8 ranks in passing and rushing offense. Perhaps surprisingly the Packers are also in the top 10 in both areas. Quite frankly it is tough to figure out how this team is 4-4 other than having been bitten twice by Favre. The defense is fourth in total yards allowed (282.9) and in the top 10 for pass and run defense. On paper they should not only put up a good fight, but probably win this game. To pull it off their defense needs to live up to the 12 interceptions on the stat sheet halfway through the season, and the offensive line has to block a few Cowboy defenders. Until last week I probably would have liked the Packers to pull this off at home, but now I realize the last time they beat a team with a winning record was – not this season: Dallas 28, Green Bay 23 (DAL -2/over 47.5)

Philadelphia (5-3) @ San Diego (5-3): Monday Night Football is wishing they could flex this into their schedule I’m sure. It should be a good one between teams chasing wild cards if not division titles. Just about everyone had the Chargers winning the AFC West prior to the season and the Eagles were at least considered by some capable of taking the NFC East given their influx of offensive talent. One of those weapons, Michael Vick, has been just about invisible. Speculation was rampant as to how the ex-Pro Bowl quarterback might be used. Wide receiver and Wildcat quarterback topped the list. He has not caught a pass, and has completed just 2/6 for 6 yards. After once becoming the first quarterback to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season Vick has just 12 carries for 27 yards. Needless to say he has not scored and worse yet is whining about his role. You would think given the sickness of his crimes the guy might just be happy to be pulling in seven digits during these tough economic crimes. He sure is sorry about how he treated those dogs huh?

Back to action on the field, Philly does have toys to work with. Rookie receiver Jeremy Maclin had a breakout game in week 5 against Tampa Bay and has been making plays the past three games. DeSean Jackson has a 50+ yard reception in five separate games this season. Perhaps what they lack is a consistent, big possession receiver to keep moving the chains. Their offensive weakness for years has been the lack of a short yardage back. This probably explains how the Eagles are fourth in scoring (27.4) and a painfully average #15 in total yards (338.5). San Diego has nearly identical offensive figures in both departments, but is almost completely reliant on their passing game. At this point LT is more like GO as in “game over”. It is painful to see him with just 289 yards rushing midway through a season he has been mostly healthy. Sproles is a spark plug, but can’t hold the feature role. Jacob Hester is looking, well, useless in his second season. Fortunately for the Chargers they have a star at receiver and tight end. Jackson and Gates have combined for 1,312 yards and 9 touchdowns on 42 receptions each. Their size against an injury depleted secondary is one reason this game produces some points. The other is the quick young duo on the other side getting deep a few times. I like the swagger of the Chargers led by Rivers right now in a close one: San Diego 31, Philadelphia 28 (SD -1/over 47)

New England (6-2) @ Indianapolis (8-0): This has been an annual event since the 2003 season and the fans are certainly not complaining. The teams have split those six regular season meetings and each won a meeting in the AFC Championship Game during that span as well. The Pats do hold the edge 5-4 because they also won a divisional playoff game. Early in the rivalry Peyton Manning was stymied by this defense and the blustery road conditions. Speaking of defense, while most people associate offense with both teams we are looking at the top two scoring defenses in the NFL. In fact, the Pats and Colts are ranked in the top 8 in scoring and total yards on both sides of the ball. In other words, it does not get much better than this on paper.

There is a major difference this year because Tony Dungy is no longer on the sidelines to strategize against Bill Belichick. Jim Caldwell has done just fine in year one though. Better than anyone since the merger in fact. He has helped Indy stretch their regular season win streak to 17 games. The two longest streaks are held by, you guessed it, New England at 18 and 21 games. They would love to bust the streak before their record is threatened. The key seems to be the passing game on both sides. Both teams throw it roughly 40 times per game and rank #1 and #2 in yardage. New England has done a slightly better job in pass defense, but Indianapolis has given up an NFL low 4 touchdown passes and can get after Brady with Freeney. He needs to be in his face all game because the Colts are going with two young corners against Welker and Moss. The Patriots also have a sneaky running game. No one on the team is going to run for 1,000 yards this season, but their committee manages a decent 4.1 yard average. Indianapolis might get rookie Donald Brown back. They only muster up 85.4 yards per game on the ground so any boost would be helpful. I could argue this one either way. I’m a little worried about the lackluster play of the Colts the past two weeks though. Meanwhile I think the motivation to snap the streak will inspire the Patriots in a primetime thriller: New England 27, Indianapolis 23 (NE +3/over 47.5)

Baltimore (4-4) @ Cleveland (1-7): Can we revive the “Cash for Clunkers” program and apply it to this Monday Night Football game? The announcing team will definitely be earning their paychecks I can tell you that. I’m pretty sure no one was clamoring for a rematch when the Ravens won the first meeting 34-3 in week 3. It was about as lopsided as games get in the NFL. Baltimore had huge advantages in first downs (28-11) and total yards (479-186) while doubling Cleveland’s yards per play. Derek Anderson threw 4 interceptions, which is probably why maligned head coach Eric Mangini is turning to Brady Quinn for round two. I think the motive is a bit more nefarious though. Quinn is being thrown to the wolves in a sense. If he struggles, which seems likely, I’m sure management can warrant benching him again prior to next week’s game at hopeless Detroit. Right now I have to wonder if they are more concerned with his incentive bonuses than seeing what kind of quarterback he can be for them.

The harsh reality here is that the Browns can’t score. They are in the holy trinity of ineptitude with the Rams and Raiders as teams failing to score 10 points per game. Their passing offense is worst in the NFL, which is embarrassing when you consider what JaMarcus Russell is doing in Oakland. They have the lowest completion percentage (48.1) as well and just 3 touchdown passes. After trading Braylon Edwards their biggest offensive weapon is rookie receiver Mohamed Massaquoi with 19 receptions for 328 yards. He has not scored. This has ugly written all over it. Baltimore is not having a great season on defense, certainly not by their standards. However, with the MNF lights shining down I promise you Ray Lewis is going to give a big speech and get them playing like it is 2001 all over again. On the other side we have the NFL’s worst defense in total yards per game (409.1) by a wide margin. They give up 170.5 rushing yards per game, second most in the league. The Ravens are not running as well as their dominant 2008 campaign, but it looks like two rookies will be starting in the middle of the 3-4 for the Browns. Ouch. I expect them to attack right up the middle, again and again. This should be an assault from start to finish: Baltimore 31, Cleveland 6 (BAL -10.5/under 40.5)