NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 11
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
11/19/09


Miami (4-5) @ Carolina (4-5): One team just lost their groove and the other appears to be finding it. Yes, the Dolphins were able to avoid a big upset last week with a dramatic march down the field, but will now have to run their Wildcat without Ronnie Brown who has been placed on IR. For their offense to lose a weapon during a stretch when the defense has given up 23+ points in five consecutive games is a killer. Meanwhile the Panthers keep getting up off the mat and seem poised to battle for a wild card. Having beaten two 2008 playoff teams who are contending again, and lost only to New Orleans this has been a solid month. Even with a brutal final stretch starting in December they can get back into the race by winning this game.

Offensively these teams are quite similar on the stat sheet, but of course get there in very different ways. It is going to be interesting to see Ricky Williams take over some of the "traditional" Ronnie Brown snaps in the Wildcat while I'm certain rookie Pat White will be given a few more plays as well. Obviously he adds a passing threat and it makes sense to use both players at the same time as well. This could be his coming out party on NFL Network. The Panthers have been weak in the middle of their defensive line, which is exactly where the Wildcat attacks. On the other side, the Dolphins give up just 97.4 yards per game on the ground and 3.7 a carry. Carolina has two very capable backs coming at them, but have their own offensive loss with left tackle Jordan Gross gone. It's never a good thing to shuffle up the line, but at least Travelle Wharton has about two seasons worth of starts at the spot.

When it comes to passing the ball, the outcome is just as unpredictable because Delhomme has been hot and cold while Henne is still finding his way in his first handful of games as the starter. Carolina finally figured out how to stop their guy from throwing interceptions and it was a pretty easy solution. Quit calling so many pass plays. Delhomme has thrown 68 passes in three games without a single interception after tossing 13 in his first six games while averaging 29.5 attempts. While Miami has given up a good chunk of passing yards (239.4 per game) their defense is set up to make him look bad. They are fifth in sacks (25) and allow a low completion percentage (58.2). With all of that in mind I look at the Panthers carrying a little more momentum. Neither team is going to be able to run the way they are used to. Both quarterbacks are capable of giving the game away with turnovers. It is worth noting that the Dolphins have only won once on the road and it was the Ginn fueled Miracle at the Meadowlands. I'll close one eye and make this pick: Carolina 24, Miami 20 (CAR -3/over 42)

It was painful to see some of my picks go the other way last week. Cincinnati did it to me again, and I guess fooling me 278 times is the magic number. The guy in the hoodie didn't want me catching Fox's Czar apparently. The surprise for me was Green Bay getting it together and taking out Dallas. My other misses were all within reason, which is to say I shrugged my shoulders as opposed to giving cartoon eyes at the television screen. All told I was a dismal 8-7, and now stand 99-45 overall. It's upsetting, but all I can do is march on. My mark against the spread was 7-8, dipping me a little more in the red (69-74-1). I was 8-7 on the over/under though, pushing me more in the black (73-68-3). Amazingly that's a combined 15-15 and I continue to be 50/50 against Vegas.

Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Kansas City (2-7): The Chiefs are 1-0 without Larry Johnson on the roster so they have that going for them. Clearly the Steelers are a little worse off minus Troy Polamalu who is out with the Madden Curse. He thought sharing the cover with Larry Fitzgerald would help. No such luck. Back to LJ though. His tweets about head coach Todd Haley never having played the game were a part of getting him cut. Obviously he was not aware Haley used to be a ball boy for Pittsburgh. Yes, really. Can you tell I’m reaching for something to talk about?

The Chiefs finally scored a rushing touchdown last week. The Steelers have given up an NFL low two and also lead the league in rushing yards per game (69.3) by a wide margin. Even if their pass defense is weakened without their best player in the secondary and top pass rusher I don’t see the Cassel to Chambers connection lighting them up with Dwayne Bowe serving a drug suspension. On the other side of things Pittsburgh goes up against a secondary with really only one strength. Kansas City is low on sacks (12) and has a weak TD/pick ratio (14/5) while giving up a healthy 234.2 yards per game. They do, however, hold opposing passers to a low completion percentage, 55.1 for fourth best in the NFL. Roethlisberger has too many options for that to matter much.

I never thought I would live to see the day they could line up three receivers and a tight end capable of making a big play. Here we are. If they feel nostalgic and want to run the ball, that would work as well. Kansas City gives up 4.6 yards a pop and 141.3 per game. The Chiefs were feisty at home early in the season, but when they were last on this field against a contender San Diego took them apart 37-7. The Steelers are angry and last week was their last loss since September. I see them taking out some frustration: Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 9 (PIT -10/under 40)

Indianapolis (9-0) @ Baltimore (5-4): There are plenty of subplots to this game. The Ravens are coached by John Harbaugh. His brother Jim was once dubbed “Captain Comeback” when he quarterbacked the Colts within a whisper of the Super Bowl in the pre-Manning 90’s. Peyton himself reveres the history of his current franchise in this city. He gushes over Unitas. Then there is kicker Matt Stover who was basically Mr. Raven having been with the franchise since the move from Cleveland. He stepped in for the Colts when Vinatieri was injured and has been perfect. All of this is dwarfed by Indy’s run to perfection. Every team would love to ruin it. The Patriots, who had the most to lose since their record regular season winning streak (21 games) is in jeopardy, had their head on a platter and choked.

If the Ravens are going to pull the upset it might require matching scores. Their defense carries a strong reputation and after a slow start used the bye week to get back into their usual form. In three games since they have given up a total of 24 points. They are fifth in scoring (17.1) and seventh in yards allowed per game (302.8). It hardly matters that Baltimore shuts down the run. Indianapolis is going to attack their corners from kickoff until the final gun. The loss of Suggs will make it harder for them to hassle Manning which everyone knows is the only way to slow him down.

In three home wins Baltimore has scored 30+ points, only getting shut down in the loss to Cincinnati. The Colts lead the NFL in scoring defense (15.8) but are a little vulnerable against the run allowing 4.3 yards per carry which is what the Ravens average. Their strategy is exactly what every team does against a potent, high scoring offense. Play ball control and keep the opposing quarterback on the sideline looking at photos. Ray Rice is a rocket. He is going to do some damage. This should be exciting into the fourth quarter. After last week I just can’t pick against the Colts. Both are coming off primetime games so I’m calling that square. Baltimore was on the road and is a day short on preparation, which offsets Indy having to deal with a much stronger opponent: Indianapolis 22, Baltimore 17 (IND -1.5/under 45)

San Francisco (4-5) @ Green Bay (5-4): The first time these teams met Aaron Rodgers was still biding his time behind Brett Favre. Alex Smith went 12/29 for 201 yards and a pair of interceptions in a 30-19 loss at Candlestick Park. This is the first showdown of 2005 first round quarterbacks. At the time I said the 49ers should have taken Rodgers, who played across the Bay at California. Instead they went with a spread quarterback with small hands and have basically regretted it ever since. Or at least they should be looking back wondering if Rodgers was the right choice. None of this matters now. This is about the NFC Wild Card race. Green Bay can stay right in the hunt with a win and leave San Francisco hoping to catch Arizona in the West.

The Packers have been moving the ball effectively and are fourth in total defense, allowing a paltry 282.3 yards per game under the guidance of Dom Capers and his 3-4. It seems like only a matter of time before their record reflects a strong +83.9 yards per game advantage. I’m not sure how to calculate their embarrassing loss at Tampa Bay with last week’s solid win over Dallas. I guess I could chalk it up to home field advantage. The 49ers used every ounce of it to outlast Chicago 10-6 and break their 4 game losing streak. They also get some extra days of preparation coming off their NFL Network appearance. I hope they used it to draw up some offense. The five teams behind them in total yards have combined to win 9 games, and that includes the Chiefs and Raiders playing each other twice.

Maybe they also tried tightening up their defense. Rodgers has to be excited about facing a secondary giving up 248.3 yards per game. If Smith has something to be excited about it is Green Bay’s pass defense having allowed 17 touchdown passes, fourth most in the NFL. Of course, they are also fourth in interceptions (13) which has been a problem with Smith. If they are going to keep it close they need to keep the turnovers in check. All season on the road they have been close, but since winning in Arizona on opening weekend are 0-3. Green Bay is 3-2 at home with mostly tight games as well. I think they can open this one up if they establish a lead early. Rodgers has trouble closing. They should be in position to keep him from blowing another win: Green Bay 24, San Francisco 14 (GB -6.5/under 42.5)

Buffalo (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4): The Bills cut Dick Jauron loose and it didn’t take Perry Fewell long to make his first major decision. He is going with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback over Trent Edwards. It seems like a change just for the sake of doing something different. Their offense has plenty of options, but the line is their real problem. They have given up 25 sacks and paved the way for a mediocre running game. Using two, sometimes three rookie starters has been an issue. Meanwhile Jacksonville has managed to run the ball effectively with rookie tackles, ranking sixth in yards per game (140.1) and third in rushing touchdowns (15). Things get worse for Buffalo because they can’t stop the run, sitting on dead last in yards per carry (5.1) and game (173.0) with an NFL high 14 rushing touchdowns. I hope you aren’t playing against a fantasy team with Jones-Drew on it.

If I’m the Jags I would not bother trying to pass the ball. Who wants to deal with rookie phenom Jairus Byrd picking off everything thrown anywhere near him? He has half the team’s 16 interceptions, second most in the NFL. The Bills might get an offensive boost out of Fitzpatrick, relatively speaking, but even with a pair of road wins in October have not scored more than 20 points sine week 2. Jacksonville’s defense might be the cure. They have given up 20+ in five straight and seven of their past eight games. It is hard to evaluate a game when it seems like one team can just run over the other. Stats can be misleading. The coaching change and quarterback swap are not going to help though. The Jags have worked their way back into the wild card chase and should stay in it with a win here: Jacksonville 27, Buffalo 17 (JAX -8/over 42)

Atlanta (5-4) @ NY Giants (5-4): This can be a turning point for the winner. New York has fallen off a cliff since starting 5-0. They had their bye week to figure out what ails them. Atlanta has dropped three of four. The bigger loss is leading rusher Michael Turner. His backup Jerious Norwood is still out, and quarterback Matt Ryan is mired in a bit of a “sophomore” slump. He is also making his first trip to the Meadowlands where the wind has made a mess of more than a few passers. Even with all of their struggles the Giants are still #1 in total defense giving up just 274.4 yards per game. The Falcons give up almost 100 more and have been quite generous against the run, yielding 130.3 yards a game and 4.6 per carry.

This is shaping up to be a get well performance for Eli Manning and an offense that has scored just 54 points in their past three games. Atlanta’s pass defense has allowed the fifth most yards (240.7). I’m not sure I have too much left to analyze here. There is always a chance Ryan turns in a sharp performance, Turner somehow plays hurt and everything goes their way. Beyond that the Giants are going to win this game. They should run the ball effectively and pass it well when necessary. It is really just that simple. With the benefit of coming off a bye week it adds up to a comfortable win that could get them back on track: NY Giants 26, Atlanta 16 (NYG -5.5/under 46.5)

New Orleans (9-0) @ Tampa Bay (1-8): After nine games the Saints have already exceeded their 2008 win total, which unless you’re really dim was 8. The Bucs have gone over their loss total of 7. It goes to show just how much can change in one season. New Orleans has added some defense and balanced their offense. Tampa Bay tried to reload their defense with younger players and has used three different quarterbacks. The only sliver of hope for the Buccaneers is their play in the last two weeks behind rookie Josh Freeman. He helped them come back and beat Green Bay and had them in position to take out Miami until the defense folded. In five straight games they have given up 25+ points, which is really bad news when facing the top scoring offense by far at 36.8 points a game. The Saints have been turnover prone of late and their scoring has dropped each week since unloading 48 on the Giants in week 6.

Let’s be honest though, Tampa Bay is not going to win this game unless New Orleans gives it away. Another crack in their armor might be playing a road game on natural grass. The only time they have done so this year resulted in a huge deficit at Miami before they rallied big time. Struggling last week at St. Louis might reflect that the weight of carrying a perfect record is getting heavier. Call it a trap, or letdown, whatever it is a team can’t just steamroll everyone on the schedule. Their weakness right now is missing defensive starters, especially in the secondary. I’m not sure a rookie quarterback with limited offensive options can take advantage. Their offense is fifth from the bottom in total yards (276.2) and can’t mount much of a running game. New Orleans does give up a good chunk of rushing yards per carry (4.5) and might be missing Ellis at defensive tackle. There are indicators an upset could be brewing. I’m not buying it. The Saints can run the ball now and are up against a defense allowing 167.3 yards per game and 4.9 per carry, both second most in the NFL. Being able to run the ball is an upset buster on the road: New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 15 (NO -11/under 51.5)

Cleveland (1-8) @ Detroit (1-8): I love me some NFL Red Zone. For those unfamiliar it is basically Scott Hanson in the NFL Network studio zipping around the league showing all the touchdowns and scoring opportunities. The air time for this game will be very, very low. The Browns have scored 78 points. That is unbelievable ineptitude. However, it is the resistible force against the movable object. The Lions give up 29.3 points a game, most in the NFL. In terms of total defense these are the worst two units. Cleveland is dead last and gets hurt most against the run to the tune of 165.8 yards per game. Detroit is weakest in pass defense allowing an NFL high 271.6 yards per game. Could Brady Quinn have a breakout game? I guess it’s possible. He is best known this season for putting his house on the market and a cheap block on Terrell Suggs.

The bottom line here is that even against a weak defense I don’t know if Cleveland can score. They want LeBron James to try out for them. Who’s next? Travis Hafner? They are totally lost. Detroit at least has a quarterback they are behind and a coach to believe in. I could break this game down six ways from Sunday, but we’re looking at two bad teams. I have to favor the Lions because they have the best offensive player in Calvin Johnson and neither team plays defense. Kevin Smith will probably get more work after totaling 25 carries for 122 yards the past two weeks on the road. He stat line in this one alone might resemble that. Games between terrible teams can often turn out entertaining. Not this one mind you. The Lions are actually going to resemble a football team: Detroit 26, Cleveland 17 (DET -3.5/over 37.5)

Washington (3-6) @ Dallas (6-3): Based on last week we can throw out the records, but there is a lot more to it. The Redskins beat Denver at home when Kyle Orton went down. Their defense saw blood in the water and carried the day. It marked the first time the team scored more than 17 points all season. The Cowboys were stifled at Green Bay. Their offense couldn’t get anything going. If this game was in D.C. my mind would already be made up and an upset would be in order. However, the venue always plays into the outcome. Betts is a power runner. He was able to run right at the Broncos in a successful showing while taking over for Portis. The Cowboys have a superior run defense and can come at them with multiple backs when they have the ball. Washington leads the NFL in pass defense and has a solid sack total (25) but only 5 interceptions. Most of the time that Romo struggles it is because of turnovers. He seems to have figured out a way to keep his trio of receivers and stud tight end happy. All of them have 400+ yards receiving.

This is a bitter rivalry game so stats can be misleading. Players go all out for this game. The ‘Skins are realistically out of it, and definitely are if they lose this one. The Cowboys were on top of the world until last week’s loss. Romo has thrown for 593 yards in two home games against Washington. Neither of them were played in this ridiculous stadium which I’m sure they are glad to be returning to after a two game road trip scoring a total of 27 points. I’m going logical because that’s my style. Dallas should get in charge early by running the ball and keep the pass rush in check. Their defense is more generous in allowing yards, but is stingier against the run. If they force Campbell to air it out he has no chance of winning a shootout with Romo: Dallas 28, Washington 14 (DAL -10.5/over 41.5)

Seattle (3-6) @ Minnesota (8-1): Even if the Vikings continue winning, it has never been easy for them at home. Maybe that was part of the deal when Favre was brought into the mix. His stunning pass to Greg Lewis beat the 49ers 27-24. He won the anticipated showdown against Rodgers and the Packers 30-23, withstanding a late rally. The Ravens set up for a field goal to win it only to watch the kick miss for a 33-31 final. Then last week even if the final score was 27-10 they had a horrible start against hopeless Detroit. The good news for them is that the Seahawks have not won a road game. The first three losses were by at least 13 points, and the latest was 31-20 at Arizona when a fourth quarter lead got away. It was really a crushing blow to their playoff aspirations. On the other side the Vikings might be firmly in control of the North, but they are chasing the Saints for the #1 seed.

Defensively the teams are pretty even on the stat sheet. Minnesota is a little better against the run and while the pass defense numbers are similar Seattle allows a higher completion percentage. Offensively the edge is pretty clear. While the passing production is comparable, Hasselbeck is still the guy who once backed up Favre. Every week it seems like Favre gets in another dig to prove his doubters wrong. With the game on the line he is still the man. He is also backed by a superior running game. Adrian Peterson is always a threat to break a touchdown run. Justin Forsett is a capable player as a complement to someone else, but with Julius Jones out he is it. Last week he had 22 touches for 149 yards. After falling behind he should put up some numbers and Hasselbeck will as well. I don’t have any doubt, however, that the Vikings will come out sharp to break the will of a team looking for a reason to fold: Minnesota 34, Seattle 20 (MIN -10.5/over 46)

Cincinnati (7-2) @ Oakland (2-7): I have been getting killed picking against the Bengals this season. Their dramatic turnaround is still hard to fathom. A win here would give them more wins on the road than they had all of 2008 total. It is tough to win away from home in the NFL, no matter who the opponent is. Philadelphia found that out here a few weeks ago. There is also some intrigue surrounding who will run the ball for the Bengals and who is throwing it for the Raiders. We know Bruce Gradkowski is the starting quarterback because JaMarcus Russell was finally benched and Jeff Garcia isn’t around to take over. Will he last or is Russell coming off the bench? I think he sticks and gives the offense a steady presence, relatively speaking. The other side is Cincinnati possibly turning to ex-Chief Larry Johnson at running back. LJ has been a terror on this defense. There could be some packages for him to get on the field with Cedric Benson out.

One thing is certain, the Raiders can’t stop the run. If Cincinnati can find someone with a pulse that guy has an opporunity to gain 100 yards. It might be rookie Bernard Scott or even fullback Brian Leonard. You probably didn’t know the #2 run defense, on the other hand, belongs to the Bengals with just 83.4 yards per game allowed. Oakland’s offense is pretty much contingent on their ability to run the ball. Even if Gradkowski gives them a boost he is still throwing to young, erratic receivers. I think Louis Murphy will be a star complementary receiver eventually and Chaz Schilens is emerging. Right now is what matters though. Their passing game can’t bail them out when the running game stalls. One way or another the Silver & Black tend to show up games like this. Ultimately they are not physical enough for the Bengals who are going to shut their offense down completely. Offensively it is just enough passing to finish the job: Cincinnati 23, Oakland 10 (CIN -9.5/under 36)

Arizona (6-3) @ St. Louis (1-8): There will be emotion with Kurt Warner returning to the city he brought a championship to a decade ago. Some fans might be wondering if the team might be in such dire straits if he was still around. The truth is that, at the time, he was finished as a Ram. Marc Bulger was the younger option ready to take over. Now, the line has eroded and all of the offensive talent from the Super Bowl team is long gone. Their only weapon now is Steven Jackson. If you’re down to one, he’s a good one to have. In the past three games he has piled up 71 carries for 414 yards. His efforts helped them beat Detroit and hang tough with New Orleans until the end. Their effort against the Saints has a lot of people thinking upset. Arizona is way more one-dimensional and they contained Brees pretty well last week.

Still, I’m always hesitant to base a pick on last week’s performance. Overall the Rams give up plenty of passing yards and are going to have no answer for Larry Fitzgerald. Few teams do. St. Louis is vulnerable against the run as well and rookie Beanie Wells is coming on strong. It seems like they have been holding him back, possibly waiting to unleash him down the stretch and keep him healthy when it matters most. The one reason I would look for an upset here is the secondary for the Cardinals allowing a ridiculous 253.4 yards per game. Bulger still has a few games in him until he is replaced in the draft. I’m a little worried about the 25 sacks the opposing line has put up thus far because he tends to shrink when knocked down. For old time’s sake it gets interesting, but the Cards are undefeated on the road and built to win on turf. They are not looking past the Rams either, which helps: Arizona 31, St. Louis 21 (AZ -9/over 46)

NY Jets (4-5) @ New England (6-3): Rex Ryan still has his sense of humor and, obviously, Bill Belichick still has his job after his controversial call last week. The Kleenex Ryan had at his press conference would have come in handy at my house after Belichick threw away the game at Indianapolis by not forcing Peyton Manning to march the field for a winning touchdown. I have heard the arguments about it being the “right” decision and “better odds”. If that’s the case, why isn’t everyone doing it? Hubris is a killer. The real loser is New York. They already have New England’s attention after beating them 16-9 earlier this season. Now they get them ticked off. For most of the game the Pats banged around the AFC’s top team in their stadium. They are playing as well as anyone in the conference and the Jets haven’t won a game since the hot dog incident at Oakland. Did the Raider Nation poison that wiener?

I could analyze this game from every angle, but it would be pointless. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. At least New Yorkers can talk a little trash about the Yankees winning the World Series if this one goes poorly. It is going to, and in a hurry. The Jets caught them early, before Tom Brady was back in his groove. Rookie Mark Sanchez didn’t have enough on tape to reveal his weaknesses. He does now and the interceptions have been coming. Leon Washington is out as the offensive spark plug and Kris Jenkins is gone as the defensive run stopper. The Jets do have a balanced offense with 169.8 yards passing and 170.1 yards rushing per game. They also bring in the better defense, third best in the NFL giving up just 281.6 yards a game. New England’s “much maligned” unit is eighth (304.6) and a flat out awful third in points allowed (16.7). Now they’re angry because they feel slighted. This is going to be a cringe worthy result for the men in green who have not been able to get over on teams like Buffalo and Jacksonville at home of late. I can’t see them rising up on the road: New England 26, NY Jets 14 (NE -10/under 45)

San Diego (6-3) @ Denver (6-3): The Chargers are making a living out of catching the Broncos. They did it last year to win the division title and have already erased what once looked like a huge three game lead (plus a tiebreaker) following last month’s 34-23 Denver win at Qualcomm. They will be the ones getting chased if they win this because next week they host Kansas City before visiting Cleveland. Sounds like 9-3 to me and who can tell how Denver will respond to Thanksgiving night against the Giants saddled with a loss here, or during late season trips to Indianapolis and Philadelphia. Unfortunately it appears reality has set in and a lot of it has to do with losing Kyle Orton. He says he wants to play, but I’m not seeing it.

Simms vs. Rivers is a mismatch. The only thing keeping this from being a rout is Mike Nolan’s revitalized defense. However, starting with the first meeting they have given up 23, 30, 28 and 27 points one way or the other. During their three game slide the offense has posted a total of 34. Getting back to that first showdown, the defenses played well enough, but Royal posted two return touchdowns for Denver and Sproles had one for San Diego. The coaches on special teams have put their work in this week I assure you. Unless Royal gets loose again I see this as the Chargers trying to wear down the Broncos, and eventually they will. Their defense is starting to come on and with Simms at the helm forget it. Everyone who has been jumping on the Denver bandwagon will jump off after this one and say they thought San Diego would win the division all along: San Diego 27, Denver 21 (SD -4/over 44)

Philadelphia (5-4) @ Chicago (4-5): We kind of know the deal by now with these teams don’t we? The Bears struggle in primetime because Cutler tries to do too much and throws a bunch of interceptions. The Eagles can’t punch in touchdowns or convert short yardage. The offensive stats are very comparable. In fact, their passing numbers are almost dead even. Philly has the edge in rushing actually with Forte stuck with 3.4 yards and a pile of dust for the Bears. Losing Westbrook hurts the Eagles, but they are used to him being out by now. Rookie LeSean McCoy needs to step up sooner or later, and this would be a good time. He had just 6 touches for 23 yards last week at San Diego, but I’m looking for an expanded role here because they know Westbrook is not around to save the day.

Remember when Donovan McNabb was rumored to be heading to the Bears? I wonder if he does too, and perhaps it motivates him in this game to prove he still has it. Rarely has a player with so much positive history been treated so poorly by the media and fans. He has something Cutler does not – talented receivers. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin could just run wind sprints all game and the opposing defense would be forced to go with them. I know the offense is far from complete and horribly inconsistent, but they are battle tested. Both defenses here can deliver the goods. Normally I love the home team if it is close. I’m not sure I would trust Cutler to beat his alma mater (Vanderbilt) at this point. He is choking badly and the lights are shining again: Philadelphia 20, Chicago 16 (PHI -3/under 45)

Tennessee (3-6) @ Houston (5-4): The first time these teams hooked up big plays were the story. Chris Johnson scored 3 touchdowns covering a total of 217 yards, but it wasn’t enough for the Titans. Andre Johnson had 149 yards receiving a pair of touchdowns to pace the Texans to a 34-31 road win. Quite a bit has changed since then including the starting quarterback for Tennessee. Vince Young is now 3-0 after Kerry Collins went 0-6. It’s not like the Jags, 49ers or Bills are going anywhere, but wins are wins. He is a hero in this city and strangely enough will be wearing the old Houston Oilers jersey because this is a throwback game for the AFL anniversary celebration. His confidence has to be swelling. The simple fact is that VY is doing what Collins did last year. He has only been sacked once this season and has just one interception in his three starts.

Most of the pressure is on the Tennessee running game. Houston has tightened up their run defense considerably of late. All it takes is one crease for Chris Johnson to change all of that and the first meeting proved it. On the other side of things we know the Texans can throw the ball up and down the field, but the still statistically challenged secondary (270.4 yards per game) has improved dramatically. Who knows then how this one is going to turn out? Houston is rested and has the home field. Tennessee is on a roll and brings an owner willing to flip the bird on national television. It’s a tough call. I kid because I really have no idea how this is going to turn out. I feel a bit like Superman trying to look through a lead wall. Big runs are impossible to predict, but I know the Texans are dying to strut their stuff on MNF. This game means a lot to them. Getting back to two games over .500 and staying in the wild card chase is a bigger motivator than some miracle comeback from 0-6 to the playoffs: Houston 27, Tennessee 20 (HOU -3.5/under 48.5)