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The first
thing you probably thought when you read the title
of this article was “What? Who cares, Paul? The Packers backfield
situation has
been as confusing as the Denver Broncos, sans the statistical
productivity.
What gives?” What gives indeed.
From the
outside, it’s easy to dismiss the idea of occupying
a treasured roster slot on your fantasy roster with a Packers running
back. Currently
the Packers as a team rank dead last in total rushing yards (217),
average per
carry (2.7), yards per game (54.2).
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So why
should you care? Because at some point during the
season the rushing productivity will increase if for no other reason
than out
of necessity alone. Brett Favre may be the greatest QB of all time, but
an NFL
team cannot consistently win games if they are forced to pass fifty
times a
game. Only one team since 2000 averaged less than 90 rushing yards and
managed
a winning record — the 2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, 85.7). The need
for
success on the ground is something head coach Mike McCarthy is aware of.
"I'm
not interested in
throwing 45 times a game," said McCarthy. "I had a coordinator once
tell me it's more fun to throw the ball. It is, but that's not the best
answer
over the course of a year."
So now
you’re probably
saying, “The Packers need to run the ball, got it. But what does this
have to
do with my fantasy team, Paul?”
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What it
means is that in
all probability the man who will emerge as the Packers starting running
back is
available on a waiver wire near you. It may be a four running back
cluster for
now, but we are only in week four. It is not only a long NFL season,
but also a
long fantasy season, meaning that even though you may be 4-0 crushing
opponents
in a “Zeus like” fashion, hurling lightning bolts down from Mount
Olympus and your roster looks solid; you are literally one
knee injury away uncertainty.
Another
thing is that the
Packers may not be as bad running the ball as advertised. Their first
four
opponents Eagles (5th), Giants (14th), Chargers (12th) and Vikings
(1st) are
especially tough against the run. The four teams have a cumulative
average
ranking of 5.25 vs. the run, and the fifth opponent, the Bears, are
10th. But
after that it gets easier with match ups vs. the Broncos (31st) and
Chiefs
(19th) in two of the next three games.
With those
things in mind,
let’s take a look at the four backs you have to choose from:
Brandon
Jackson
– At this point in the season, Jackson is still the front runner for
the starting gig because
he has been the most productive, but he has been limited by a nagging
shin
injury. The rookie from Nebraska
has 38 carries for 97 yards and one TD and has also caught 11 passes
(4th
highest on the team) for 81 yards thru three games. Averaging 16.3
touches per
game when healthy is a good sign that the coaching staff wants him to
succeed.
But with each game he misses another player gets the chance to produce.
DeShawn Wynn-
After a surprising week two in which he amassed 50 yards and two TDs on
ten carries
and caught two passes for 18 yards vs. the Giants, Wynn, also a rookie,
disappeared as quickly as he arrived with 12 carries for 29 yards and
five
receptions for 24 yards in the next two games vs. the Chargers and
Vikings.
With Jackson injured, he
will
probably assume starting duties until further notice.
Ryan
Grant- The second year player out of
Notre Dame carried the ball
six times vs. the Vikings last week, gaining 27 yards making his 4.5
yards per
carry average the highest on the team. His stock undoubtedly suffered a
big hit
when he fumbled on a routine tackle as the Packers tried to run out the
clock
and the Vikings recovered. Grant is a part of the Packers'
running-back-by-committee but shouldn't be considered a desirable
fantasy
option at this time, but may be eventually.
Vernand
Morency-
Initially acquired to help fill the vacancy left by Ahman Green, he has
been
held back due to a knee injury suffered on the first day of training
camp. That
plus the fact that the Packers spent a first round pick on a running
back are not
especially encouraging for Morency. It was also reported this week that
he
experienced lingering knee soreness after playing in his
first game of the season Week 4 at the Vikings. Morency only carried
the ball
once in week four, but look for the Packers to involve him more in the
offense
as long as the soreness doesn't hold him back. He has the potential to
develop
into a No. 2 or 3 Fantasy RB later this season.
While none of
the four backs have proven they are consistent
fantasy options, fantasy football is all about probability. Meaning
that if you
choose to start one of the Packers running backs in a pinch, while
considering
all additional factors, it could lead to what on the surface appears to
be
unwarranted fantasy success on that particular day.
I’m not
telling you to start any one of these guys now, but
it is a situation worth monitoring that could pay huge dividends vs.
the price
it cost to invest.
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