The NFL Draft is less than a week away, and attempting to wade through the thick smoke screens emanating from teams across the league is difficult to say the least.  With general managers lying, coaches misspeaking, and false rumors being spread around the NFL, it’s hard to say with certainty what will happen come April 26. 

For teams in desperate need for a quarterback, however, one thing is certain.  Scouts and coaches better do their homework.  And pray.  Lots of praying.  Why?  Because selecting a quarterback in the NFL Draft is one of the most difficult things to do.  Hard to project, and almost impossible to perfect, selecting a quarterback is without a doubt an inexact science.

Flashback to 1999.  Pundits were calling this the best quarterback draft since 1983, where the league saw the likes of John Elway, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly prepare to enter the NFL.  In 1999, the prospects were Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown, Tim Couch, and Akili Smith.  On draft day, the “expansion” Cleveland Browns held the No. 1 overall pick.  In Peter King’s Sports Illustrated article, he discussed how the Browns were torn between two players:  Tim Couch and Akili Smith.  Two players who had careers mired in mediocrity, it is no consolation to Cleveland that they chose the former over the latter.  Couch struggled on a talent-less team and was released after five demoralizing seasons. 

The career for Akili Smith was far worse.  Selected third overall, Smith started just seventeen games in four years, and was promptly released by the Cincinnati Bengals.

It gets worse.  Remember Andre Ware?  You’re not alone.  Ware was the first African-American quarterback to win the Heisman in 1989.  In 1990, he was drafted seventh overall by the Detroit Lions, and many people expected special things out of Ware.  Over the course of four years, Ware played just fourteen games, and started a paltry six. 

Worst of all, though, was Washington State quarterback Ryan Leaf.  In 1998, the Colts selected Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning with the number one overall pick.  It is often forgotten, but the Chargers traded two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick, Eric Metcalf, and Patrick Sapp to move up just one spot to grab Leaf.  He was a monumental bust--a player that not only couldn’t cut it on the field, but even wilted under pressure off it.  It’s hard to imagine that Leaf’s infant-like maturity went unnoticed during the intense NFL evaluation process. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but in 1998, the Colts were unsure of which quarterback they would select.  In a 1998 New York Times article, writer Mike Freeman described how the Colts brass agonized over the pick, stating, “Indeed, Colts General Manager Bill Polian and Coach Jim Mora had not decided who they were going to take.  The two men went back and forth for much of the night.  Manning or Leaf, Leaf or Manning?  They were using a point system, and it was so close that the decision was not made until later yesterday morning, the day of the draft.”

This is what makes the NFL Draft fun for the fans, but tough for the teams.  In an age in which a top quarterback will command 30 plus million dollars in a signing bonus alone, teams literally cannot afford to be wrong.  Having a top five pick, regardless of how poor the team performed previously, has become more of a curse than a blessing.  Unlike in the 1980’s and 1990’s, it’s hard to let a top quarterback sit and learn on the bench for two years.  In this age of instant results, and quick coaching turnover, a young quarterback is more likely to be thrown to the wolves early--regardless of his surrounding talent.

One cannot be blind to the quarterback successes in the NFL, however.  For every Tim Couch and Akili Smith, there is an Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.  For every Andre Ware and David Klinger, there is a Phillip Rivers or Carson Palmer.  But, one has to wonder if selecting college quarterbacks in the top ten of the draft is worth the risk.  Are the San Francisco 49ers happy they selected Alex Smith with the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, or do they wish they had saved millions of dollars and selected a quarterback in the 2nd round or even a late round prospect?  Remember, in that same draft, quarterback Derek Anderson was selected in the sixth round.  He is now a Pro Bowl player and was recently rewarded with a long-term contract. 

It cannot be forgotten that quarterbacks in later rounds do indeed succeed in the NFL.  With less money on the line, signal callers selected later in the draft get a chance to truly develop and learn, all the while perfecting their craft.  Whether it’s Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, or Matt Hasselbeck, teams do indeed find success in later rounds if they correctly do their due diligence.  This is also not a new phenomenon, either.  Brett Favre was found in round two.  Joe Montana was selected in round three.  Roger Staubach was selected in the now extinct round ten.  There is a history of finding quality quarterbacks past round one.

On April 26^th, someone will indeed select Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan.  He will be a top ten pick, and depending on where he goes, he could command upwards to thirty million dollars in signing bonus.  A team will invest their future in him, and regardless of his quality of play, his salary will force the team into keeping him for half a decade.  No one knows for certain how he will adjust to the NFL.  One thing is for sure, though:  the team that selects him better hope that Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, or John David Booty do not have better careers.